RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[Biscuit]

Tony Alexander is a good economist who's relying on official REINZ date that is out of date

Alexander uses REINZ but also does his own regular surveys of the industry. Still, it is the guys on the ground who should have the best insight...

[Snow Leopard]

Do not care a hoot whether the Auckland property market is going to boom some more or bust - I sold the last of my Ryman in July-14.

As of today I would be 'interested' if the share price was less that $6.72 and by the time next March arrives that interest will have risen to $7.25.

I believe far too many have lost sight of what they are actually buying when they buy Ryman and in historical terms it is still trading well in excess of long term average multiples.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

As of today I would be 'interested' if the share price was less that $6.72 and by the time next March arrives that interest will have risen to $7.25.

I believe far too many have lost sight of what they are actually buying when they buy Ryman and in historical terms it is still trading well in excess of long term average multiples.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Bang on the money and inline with Winner69's and my thinking. More likely the SP will just continue to track sideways and investors will "enjoy" their ~ 1.5% divvy yield until earnings growth catches up with fair value. My best guess...another 2 years sideways for the SP.

[Biscuit]

As of today I would be 'interested' if the share price was less that $6.72 and by the time next March arrives that interest will have risen to $7.25.

You are confident then that the value of Rymans will increase by 7.9% in the next 4 months? Maybe its that kind of predictability and growth, that explains why it was a good buy at $7.20 a few weeks ago.

[macduffy]

You are confident then that the value of Rymans will increase by 7.9% in the next 4 months? Maybe its that kind of predictability and growth, that explains why it was a good buy at $7.20 a few weeks ago.

Hmmm.... I don't think that the tiger was saying that. His 7.9% growth is predicated on a current shareprice of less than $6.72 - which, of course, isn't the case.

[Biscuit]

Hmmm.... I don't think that the tiger was saying that. His 7.9% growth is predicated on a current shareprice of less than $6.72 - which, of course, isn't the case.

I think he was saying that, in his opinion, the value (not the share price) would increase by 7.9%.

[Joshuatree]

I don't know what the share price will do and i sold a while back,but what I'm reading ,and hearing on National Radio news today; permits/ consents still arn't matching the inflow of new residents and that prices are slowing but still increasing i.e. demand still exceeding supply so to say the market is plunging is just misleading based on that. Don't panic Mr Mannering.

[Bjauck]

I don't know what the share price will do and i sold a while back,but what I'm reading ,and hearing on National Radio news today; permits/ consents still arn't matching the inflow of new residents and that prices are slowing but still increasing i.e. demand still exceeding supply so to say the market is plunging is just misleading based on that. Don't panic Mr Mannering.

Capt Mainwaring surely, you stupid boy IMO, if we relied on underlying profit only and ignored land values, I think we would have to wait a long time before underlying profit justified the current price.

[winner69]

In Auckland - Monthly sales volumes fell 21 percent to 1,068, compared with a 3.3 percent gain in September.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/6...introducedhtml

[Snow Leopard]

Do not care a hoot whether the Auckland property market is going to boom some more or bust - I sold the last of my Ryman in July-14.

As of today I would be 'interested' if the share price was less that $6.72 and by the time next March arrives that interest will have risen to $7.25.

I believe far too many have lost sight of what they are actually buying when they buy Ryman and in historical terms it is still trading well in excess of long term average multiples.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

More [unquoted] quotes found between the above quote and the below quote but not quoted here

I think he was saying that, in his opinion, the value (not the share price) would increase by 7.9%.

Firstly an apology 'by the time next March arrives' should have been 'by the time next April arrives'.

Those numbers fell out of this mess which was part of a larger mess:


The 3rd column is the FY reported NTA for 2002 to 2015 inclusive which appears to have a fairly reliable average 10 YoY growth rate of nearly 20%.

The 1st column is the ratio of the share price at the end of Oct in calendar year XX to the 3rd column, which is the NTA at the end of Mar in calendar year XX (I did say it was a mess and in writing this I have spotted the error which makes my $6.72 and $7.25 too high ) and the second column is the natural log of column one.

So with our annual 20% NTA growth and the 14 year average ratio of SP to NTA out popped $6.72 now and $7.25 later, which should have been $6.04 now and $6.72 at the end of Mar-16.

So that is all there is to it.

But the good news is of course, if the past repeats into the future at 31-Mar-2020 the value of the company, even by this Tiger model is $13.93.

So what are you willing to pay now for that?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Homework question: Why is a glorified property company worth many times it's NTA ?