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  1. #2441
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    Homework question: Why is a glorified property company worth many times it's NTA ?
    A tiger ate my homework but I had compiled a lengthy explanation, the essence of which was that this particular property company, unlike most others, gets to clip the ticket in several ways as it lets and re-lets its properties.

    Cheers, PT.


  2. #2442
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    Duplicated post.

    Last edited by macduffy; 04-11-2015 at 01:44 PM.

  3. #2443
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    Answer to your question.
    Because they when they have sold occupancy rights for each completed village they have all their capital back,and can repeat the process when they complete their next villages ,and so on,and on and on!!.

  4. #2444
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paper Tiger View Post
    More [unquoted] quotes found between the above quote and the below quote but not quoted here



    Firstly an apology 'by the time next March arrives' should have been 'by the time next April arrives'.

    Those numbers fell out of this mess which was part of a larger mess:


    The 3rd column is the FY reported NTA for 2002 to 2015 inclusive which appears to have a fairly reliable average 10 YoY growth rate of nearly 20%.

    The 1st column is the ratio of the share price at the end of Oct in calendar year XX to the 3rd column, which is the NTA at the end of Mar in calendar year XX (I did say it was a mess and in writing this I have spotted the error which makes my $6.72 and $7.25 too high ) and the second column is the natural log of column one.

    So with our annual 20% NTA growth and the 14 year average ratio of SP to NTA out popped $6.72 now and $7.25 later, which should have been $6.04 now and $6.72 at the end of Mar-16.

    So that is all there is to it.

    But the good news is of course, if the past repeats into the future at 31-Mar-2020 the value of the company, even by this Tiger model is $13.93.

    So what are you willing to pay now for that?

    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger

    Homework question: Why is a glorified property company worth many times it's NTA ?
    Good work there PT

    An astute reader might have worked out that the higher the SP/NTA (or its natural log) the subsequent 3 year returns gets lower.

    From your table for instance when the SP/NTA was 4.18 the share price up 0% over the next 3 years (ie it was the same price in year XX+3 then it was in year XX) even though the NTA almost doubled in the same time.

    Spooky eh - esp when that SP/NTA was higher 3 and 2 years ago and is now only slowing 'reverting' to some sort of mean.

    All points to a share price of $7.50 - $8.00 in 1 to 2 years time.

    That can't be right - we both must be talking rubbish

    Like your use of natural logs to highlight things
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #2445
    The past is practise. Vaygor1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paper Tiger View Post
    So with our annual 20% NTA growth and the 14 year average ratio of SP to NTA out popped ..... $6.04 now and $6.72 at the end of Mar-16.

    So that is all there is to it.

    But the good news is of course, if the past repeats into the future at 31-Mar-2020 the value of the company, even by this Tiger model is $13.93.

    So what are you willing to pay now for that?
    Thanks once again Paper Tiger.

    SP-NTA, SP-Underlying Profit, SP-IFRS Profit, SP-DCF, etc etc all form historical and forecast ratios that drop out different results.. none of them right & none of them wrong.

    I am sure you recall my Log/Log 10-year analysis of SP vs Underlying Profit, yielding a log-log straight line correlation of R² = 0.98

    So, using that method, and to answer your question, the amount that I am willing to pay currently for RYM is anything under $7.97 .... the further under, the more willing.

    By 1-Apr-2016 (but technically post-announcement in mid-May 2016), for me that number will have risen to $8.57

    Now I'm not saying I am right (or wrong) but that is my conclusion.. the one of many (as is yours) that eventually forms a market sentiment and shareprice based upon the hundreds of different raw data sets, different calculation methods, different appetites for risk, and different interpretations of the number(s) that drop out.

    Of course PT, I am not really saying this to you as you already know the above, but more for the some of the newer ST contributors out there who may be interested.

  6. #2446
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    Talking A Curious Feeling*

    Quote Originally Posted by Vaygor1 View Post
    ...I am sure you recall my Log/Log 10-year analysis of SP vs Underlying Profit, yielding a log-log straight line correlation of R² = 0.98...
    I remember it and I have found it but the nice graph has gone! (which has happened to lots of attachments, I have gone back to using Photobucket and linking them).

    RYM must be the most consistent, reliable growth company on the exchange, the share price to choose your metric ratio is, very definitely, a lot more of an indication of market sentiment than the company itself.

    A buy them when they are relatively cheap, keep them when they are expensive has been a good long term and straight forward strategy so far.

    But....

    For a while I have had this curious feeling about the valuations applied to them and despite a couple of posters attempting my homework for me I still play with OpenOffice Calc (Excel for frugal Tiger's).

    But I guess 'I will be back someday'

    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger

    Obscure? references to Tony Banks album
    om mani peme hum

  7. #2447
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Another boomer result for Ryman coming up this week. Plenty in way of revaluations still coming through

    I reckon they on track for 1/4 billion real profit in FY16. Book value will rise in lie with this.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #2448
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    Did Ryman open the Puke village this year?

  9. #2449
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    Back in yesterday at $7.60. Sold out 2 years ago at $7.85.

    This should be interesting. Target exit price is $10 within the next 2 years.

  10. #2450
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    dear old guy...just remember..Ive said it before....the last share split was $11.30 odd....yonks ago...1-5......you may exit at $3 something...times 5...cheers...

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