RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[CJ]

Labour is promising to cut the average Kiwi retirement cost by up to $330 a year if elected to government.

It plans to do so by setting up a single buyer, NZ Retire, to purchase all retirement units at a fair price.

At a joint press conference Green co-leader Russel Norman outlined a similar policy, although the Greens would introduce an element of progressive pricing.

Norman said each retiree would receive a 1 week per month on which they paid only linen and food costs.

After that they would pay higher prices for accommodation.

Pick another industry that Labour/Greens could have fun with

[Lawt]

Lawt..you are right you are a minority.I believe that you have been brainwashed by some sales pitch....by the way I will always remember footage of a water bottle factory..where a hose was used to fill water bottles..an ordinary tap...no offence intended and yes this has nothing to do with Rym. Cheers

Yeah, you're right I've been brainwashed, what was I thinking? Of course Coke is better for me than (even tap) water. It makes you slim, healthy, hot and happy - all the time right.
Offended? No I love it. As per my first 2 lines the post was about keeping an open mind and the ability to understand others.

[gv1]

I am in a Dilemma, with all the mayham in US, to hold on to cash or invest.

[skid]

Yeah, you're right I've been brainwashed, what was I thinking? Of course Coke is better for me than (even tap) water. It makes you slim, healthy, hot and happy - all the time right.
Offended? No I love it. As per my first 2 lines the post was about keeping an open mind and the ability to understand others.

I agree with both of you--tap water is probably not as great as it used to be--and..bottled water is the biggest marketing rip off ever created--I think the solution is a good quality water filter.--but that doesnt mean bottled water wont continue to sell..

[gv1]

Thanks moosie900

[Lawt]

Hold on to it right now!

I'd be interested to hear your rationale here Moosie. Not suggesting you are wrong at all, just interested is all.

[futurist]

Just my opinion, but I posted a few days ago, after the first day of equity market declines, that I expect the next couple of weeks to be a bit rocky. However, I think in the medium term markets still have a good year or two or solid growth left in them.

Have a look at the IMF's recent April 2013 flagship publications; "World Economic Outook" and "Global Financial Stability Report", you only need to read the Foreward and Executive summary to get the general idea. The outlook is generally good for the next couple of years. You can look to the RBNZ's monetary policy statements to get an idea of activity and forecasts closer to home but the general consensus for domestic growth is roughly the same as the IMF's outlook for world economies.

In the Medium term QE will prop up equity markets for some time, and the timing of QE windback will coincide with improved economic growth which should negate any adverse effect on markets. It will be around this time when I will start to llok at realising equity market gains made over the last 3 years or so.

Good luck with your decisions.

Nice day again for RYM huh?

Interesting. I am worried that the windback will happen sooner than we expect. Yes all reports say the States would not have inflationary pressure or an unemployment rate under 6.5 until 2015; but these reports assume the world is pretty much static when they do the estimation. The best scenario is what you describe, and exactly what the Feds is selling: everything will balance out. But recently if you look at oil, metal, and the economic data from the States, plus the global financial development, everything is hinting a return of strong dollar!

I hope I am over-worried, but looking at the crazy shoot up of RYM ... and yes I like this company a lot too, I do wonder if this is also a sign.

[futurist]

Only time will tell. All sorts of things could happen to change any current outlook.

Re your point about static estimation, that is why I suggested IMF and RBNZ analysis as opposed to what I would consider lesser quality analysis. The RBNZ and IMF I suspect will be doing a lot of their forecasting using dynamic general equilibrium models (DGE) so you should find no issue there.

IMF was pretty clear in thier feelings of how careful the US will need to be in pulling out of QE, i.e. it will need to be a very drawn out process. What is more concerning to me is how the US is conducting its fiscal consolidation. Hopefuly they can work things out a bit there and set in place a more prudent strategy for tightening up their budget.

Point taken for the DGE, and thanks for sharing that actually.

But my worry on the dynamic aspect of this issue is more straight-forward than a complex model. I don't think the Feds could be run based on transparency and honesty; because that attracts too much speculative activities when they become too predictable, which would impact on the effectiveness of their policies.

So I won't be surprised if they stop the open-ended bond purchase earlier than they say this year, or even raise the interest rate in 2014, when we all have built our expectations for 2015. As long as all these actions align with the best interest of the States ... well if they get their economy running again I bet they won't care if the reverse of QE will negatively impact everybody else as much as they claim they do.

Back to RYM, seems like strong demand at 5.70. Who would have thought about that a week ago?

[futurist]

P.S. Sold at 5.70!

A bit earlier than "sell in May and walk away", but whatever. I still hope I am over-worried since I still have other shares in the market.

[Snow Leopard]

Despite having a never sell in an uptrend rule - I have reduced my holding in RYM a bit .

Sheer lunacy - but whether it is me or the buyers only time will tell .

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger