RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[Beagle]

Great to have you back.I have missed your input.

Thanks Percy.

A little confession, I sold out of these a while ago and really regretted it, but thankfully relaised the error of my ways and got back in last September at $3.99. Thank God I came to my senses and realised there's still heaps of value in the long term fundamentals supporting this sector.

I'm thinking the fact that people have started to realise that money in the bank is not the guilt edged security they thought it was may be supporting the market for the forseeable future.

But the advance in Ryman and Summerset is breath-taking... I'd like to see a bit of sideways movement for a while so I can save some money and get some more Demanding fundamentals now for both these stocks with huge PE ratio's but with an on-going booming housing market making it relativly easy for prospective new village entrants to sell their houses and forecast low interest rates for as far as the eye can possibly see, with the well reported favourable tailwinds for this sector, as long as one has a long term time horizon I still see value in these stocks especially given the paucity of other alternatives in terms of reputable growth companies in the N.Z. market.

Ride the uptrend for all its worth I reckon
This stock is a true buy and stick in your bottom draw till you retire investment, how many other stocks can you say that about ?

Recent volume suggests this company could be a take-over target, I personally hope it isn't I'd rather own it indefinitly and pass the shares on to my kids.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Ryman is a fantastic company, but a $6.90 pricetag would be getting a bit silly imo. This market is starting to make me feel uneasy, it's setting itself up for another collapse in my view. I'm seeing a bit of irrational exuberance in a few stocks, so I suspect that this old bull will be getting a very large bullet right between the eyes sometime within the next year. Anyone else concerned?

[percy]

Ryman has just been re-rated by First NZ Capital on the basis of their likely success in Australia and a highly likely dual list on the ASX to help boost credibility in Australia.

The target price is now........

Drumroll please

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

$6.90 (from $5.85)

Futurist, if you are lucky, you might be able to buy your shares back for what you roughly paid for them.....

Sparky.
Again thank you for sharing this with us.
Although I am shocked at $6.90 First Capital NZ are our country's leading broker, and have a great deal of influence, so I look forward to them being right.

[Snow Leopard]

Apparently First NZ have developed a sophisticated new technique:

Taken the current price;
Add 15% for next year;
and a bit more as a safety measure because it always goes up a bit more than you expect;
make up the reasons later.

The worry is that they could well be right.

Yours in disbelief
Paper Tiger

[troyvdh]

I wonder how many of these folk individually ....how many actually bought and paid for of RYM shares.
Do they actually disclose this...when they bought...how many....not in trusts ...but individual brokers....cheers....

[winner69]

Apparently First NZ have developed a sophisticated new technique:

Taken the current price;
Add 15% for next year;
and a bit more as a safety measure because it always goes up a bit more than you expect;
make up the reasons later.

The worry is that they could well be right.

Yours in disbelief
Paper Tiger

You on to it tiger ....sad thing people believe them

Big rort eh .....but watch share price go up this week

[CJ]

Sparky- would an ASX be to raise new capital or just a notional 1 share like XRO did? If no new shares issued ( they have never needed more capital unless they want to expand into Oz a lot quicker than they are in NZ), increased demand will see the price rocket in the short term, just like XRO.

[percy]

Apparently First NZ have developed a sophisticated new technique:

Taken the current price;
Add 15% for next year;
and a bit more as a safety measure because it always goes up a bit more than you expect;
make up the reasons later.

The worry is that they could well be right.

Yours in disbelief
Paper Tiger

The reality is that First NZ Capital have a history of being right as they do the best research.

[winner69]

I can understand the cynicism, but have you guys (winner69 and Paper Tiger) actually read the First NZ report?

As I mentioned, they significantly outlined the impact of Australian retirement villages for RYM and a likely ASX listing. You might want to digest those two possibilities further impacting positively on what is arguably NZs best company already.

It stands to reason that an ASX float would be very beneficial to Ryman. I personally had discounted this happening in 2013 or early 2014 based on discussions I've had with management in late 2012, but maybe they've brought these plans forward?

I think tigers and my 'cynicsm' is all around the price target they come up more so than the commentary that comes with it.

I've seen zillions of broker reports over the years and the number parts are just that. Take a P&L, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - normalise it - make some assumptions and apply those to the current situation - and hey presto you always get better figures than the current - and of course whether valuation are done on multiples or DCF of course the share price target is going to be way ahead of the current. If theys don't pan out as assumed you just go back to the new 'norm' and so the exercise again.

I do agree with you that at times the commentary can be quite illuminating ... but the norm is collecting market fundamentals and overviews and all that of stuff and writing a report on the company on its position in the market and its prospects etc. That is there job - doign that for the punters who need that sort of help so they can make some sort of informed decisions. And most do that quite well

The 'cynic' is really saying putting all these numbers together together and coming up with a 'taget' or 'value' is mainly to get punters buyin g and selling .... brokerage and more fees yippee.

Whats the churn of RYM shares? and the average over the NZX or even world markets?

The cy

[CJ]

I have a some doubt its for new capital. They have no long term debt, although they might construct a case that once Wheelers Hill is finished in Melbourne they want to aggressively open new villages and need capital for that.

That was my though - no historical need for capital but if their first Australia forey is successful, they may request some extra capital to start building up a landbank, otherwise, growth from a low base will be slow. Pop that question in next time you have having a cup of tea (or is it a dram of Whiskey) with the CFO.