CAV - Cavalier Corp (Carpets)

[zigzag]

Looks like my big fat dividend just went on a crash diet. I bought into this as a deep value / late cyclical play, but the turnaround is a long time coming. Like waiting for a bus that never comes.

[percy]

Looks like my big fat dividend just went on a crash diet. I bought into this as a deep value / late cyclical play, but the turnaround is a long time coming. Like waiting for a bus that never comes.

Must be one of the best posts I have read this year.
Feel for you.!!!!

[blackcap]

Don't worry zigzag, there will be a divi next year and the year after they will go back to 3 divvies per annum. Its a cyclical play

[percy]

Don't worry zigzag, there will be a divi next year and the year after they will go back to 3 divvies per annum. Its a cyclical play

Blackcap;Don't know which post is funnier,yours, or Zigzag's?????????????????????????????????????????.
Had a good chuckle at both.!!!!! lol.

[blackcap]

Hiya Percy, I hope you are getting a good nights rest as I see (thanks to winner) that you are lining up in the 12.09 at New Plymouth tomorrow afternoon... I have put a lazy fiver on but thanks again to winner it seems he has hoovered up all the good odds

[okay]

Oh dear, even worse than anticipated. Net Debt keeps growing, up to 59m from 53m prior year. Couldn't really afford the 4.7m in dividends they paid out eh.

[percy]

Hiya Percy, I hope you are getting a good nights rest as I see (thanks to winner) that you are lining up in the 12.09 at New Plymouth tomorrow afternoon... I have put a lazy fiver on but thanks again to winner it seems he has hoovered up all the good odds

Stopped backing myself as I am ahead.!!
However,slept well, had a big feed of Coco-Pops, now ready pull out all stops knowing you and winner69 are backing me.!! lol.

[winner69]

Don't worry zigzag, there will be a divi next year and the year after they will go back to 3 divvies per annum. Its a cyclical play

Maybe a cyclical play but heaps of good things have to right before they will return a decent profit

They did OKish at the end of the last building boom. Current building well progressed but still quite a way to go. Maybe there is hope for a couple of decent years of revenue growth

But this time around Godfrey Hirst are a more formidable competitor and are taking share from Cavalier (here and in Australia) and also this time around margins are likely to be continue to be less than before.

There's hope. Maybe CAV can sell $50m more carpet and make $20m profit again ... and the share price go back to Sparky's $3 target. Just maybe. Before I get interested would need to see evidence that this actually happening.

Below update of charts posted previous. No shareprice chart, even though that probably reflects better how bad this company has become.

[Hoop]

Maybe a cyclical play but heaps of good things have to right before they will return a decent profit

No shareprice chart, even though that probably reflects better how bad this company has become.

A share price chart that CAV management wouldn't print ..... and now you know why

Don't worry zigzag, there will be a divi next year and the year after they will go back to 3 divvies per annum. Its a cyclical play

The shape of this 6 year chart considering we are in a NZ Equity Bull Market boom shows no recent cyclic behaviour...The cycle was halted by a rectangle pattern breakdown..in normal cyclic behaviour one would've expected that rectangle pattern pause to signify an extended bottom event but in CAV case that "bottoming" event broke down into another capitulation phase signifying that the orginal CAV Bear Market cycle hadn't ended but was in a hibernation period...These types of charted cycle breakdowns behaviour indicate the company is perceived by investors as not being able to recover for some time yet..

Winner....I'm wondering, what is the Altman Z score now with the new results??

TA Target price (rectangle break down) 1.40 - (1.95 - 1.40) = $0.85

[winner69]

Hoop - Altman Z score is 2.43

Z-SCORE BETWEEN 1.8 and 2.7 – Good chances of the company going bankrupt within 2 years of operations from the date of financial figures given

They really do need to something with that huge stockpile of carpet unsold in the warehouses. Really need to start reducing it fast and turn it in to cash. Otherwise no divie for zigzag next year either

But then again they need to start making more money as well so better not give that carpet away