CAV - Cavalier Corp (Carpets)

[The Grinch]

ChooChoooooooooo all aboard the $1.46 express next stop explaining to the other half why she still can't have the ring.

[Hoop]

Just weak resistances to 146 but the breakout target price is around a weak resistance (the orange dotted line) of 115...it wouldn't surprise me if CAV wavers around this area with some profit taking...

But who knows....global stocks looking very weak this week and most NZX stocks are so far ignoring this fact due to National victory?...

Oh speaking about National..remember Lose Yourself by Eminem......a bit of the lyrics........"Snap back to reality, oh, there goes gravity".....

[The Grinch]

Might have to start strolling through a few Carpet stores and talking to the sales team about this one. More I read the more I like.

Please throw me an ugly statement... I'm really starting to think the $8-10mil mark likely and a little over that if things keep heading there way

FYI (sure this is nothing new to most following this stock).

http://www.indexmundi.com/commoditie...0&currency=nzd

No excitement there but when you correlate that against profits made over the time period clearly shows how the wool price increase squeezed margins and eroded profits. The better than expected increase in synthetic carpet sales will help and touch wood prices have a least stabilised slash slightly trending down.

See our dollar took a good tumble 88c AUD here we come.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mone...y-intervention

Unfortunately wool prices don't want to follow - stubborn wool prices. Thoughts are it will stay pretty stabile in the short term (very short term).

http://www.wool.com/Content/en-GB/mi_wk_13_2014.pdf

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/rural/...prices-to-hold

[Lizard]

The tie up with Mowhawk in Australia is interesting. I am unsure, even from their website, when that was announced.

[winner69]

Oh dear oh dear ....new year just started and an earnings DOWNGRADE already

Enough said ...hang in their Grinch / Sparky .....one day it will be OK

June 2015 year-end earnings guidance
2:52pm, 24 Oct 2014 | FORECAST
Cavalier Corporation advises that after three months of trading, whilst volumes have been consistent with previous year, margins are under pressure, and the Company is unlikely to achieve – on a normalised basis - the $5.8m profit after tax achieved in the 2014 financial year.

The expectation reflects the current high price of wool on the manufactured cost of carpet and the on-going strength of the NZD:AUD exchange rate on our AUD-denominated sales and receivables.

Australian sales and receivables were somewhat sheltered from the high cross rate in 2014 due to favourable forward cover taken throughout 2012/13, much of which have since been utilised. As a consequence, Cavalier is subject to a much less favourable cross rate in the current 2015 financial year.

[Chaowee88]

Oh dear oh dear ....new year just started and an earnings DOWNGRADE already

Enough said ...hang in their Grinch / Sparky .....one day it will be OK

June 2015 year-end earnings guidance
2:52pm, 24 Oct 2014 | FORECAST
Cavalier Corporation advises that after three months of trading, whilst volumes have been consistent with previous year, margins are under pressure, and the Company is unlikely to achieve – on a normalised basis - the $5.8m profit after tax achieved in the 2014 financial year.

The expectation reflects the current high price of wool on the manufactured cost of carpet and the on-going strength of the NZD:AUD exchange rate on our AUD-denominated sales and receivables.

Australian sales and receivables were somewhat sheltered from the high cross rate in 2014 due to favourable forward cover taken throughout 2012/13, much of which have since been utilised. As a consequence, Cavalier is subject to a much less favourable cross rate in the current 2015 financial year.

No surprises there, good thing I brought and sold. Brought at 92 sold when CAV jumped to 102.

It just a shocking tale of woe, and with their ever burgeoning pile of debt, and declining profit, they're going nowhere.

[percy]

No surprises there, good thing I brought and sold. Brought at 92 sold when CAV jumped to 102.

It just a shocking tale of woe, and with their ever burgeoning pile of debt, and declining profit, they're going nowhere.

As you pointed out "no surprises there"!!

[MAC]

Downstream at some point wool prices must surely come off those three year long highs, but who really knows where commodity prices are going. A leaner meaner CAV at that point might look pretty good, but when is the question, within the next year, or perhaps two ?

http://www.indexmundi.com/commoditie...ool&months=120

[The Grinch]

Oh dear oh dear ....new year just started and an earnings DOWNGRADE already

Enough said ...hang in their Grinch / Sparky .....one day it will be OK

June 2015 year-end earnings guidance
2:52pm, 24 Oct 2014 | FORECAST
Cavalier Corporation advises that after three months of trading, whilst volumes have been consistent with previous year, margins are under pressure, and the Company is unlikely to achieve – on a normalised basis - the $5.8m profit after tax achieved in the 2014 financial year.

The expectation reflects the current high price of wool on the manufactured cost of carpet and the on-going strength of the NZD:AUD exchange rate on our AUD-denominated sales and receivables.

Australian sales and receivables were somewhat sheltered from the high cross rate in 2014 due to favourable forward cover taken throughout 2012/13, much of which have since been utilised. As a consequence, Cavalier is subject to a much less favourable cross rate in the current 2015 financial year.

Thanks W69,

Didn't see this one coming - NZD against AUD has averaged 90c since Aug. There last year average was 91c. Wool prices are high but lower than the 2011 year and really hard to see them staying this flamboyant for to long. With the significant cost reductions exercises etc tch tch now its the hard call. Do I back my call and top up? Its now a bargain, trend water or reduce a portion in anticipation that Im wrong?

Cheers
TG

http://www.eldersprimary.co.nz/image..._usd_south.pdf
http://www.eldersprimary.co.nz/image...fs/ssi_usd.pdf

[The Grinch]

No surprises there, good thing I brought and sold. Brought at 92 sold when CAV jumped to 102.

It just a shocking tale of woe, and with their ever burgeoning pile of debt, and declining profit, they're going nowhere.

Chao, could you share? no Tie's not flash at just over 3 and macro factors (currency, wool etc) mean margins aren't good at the moment... but going nowhere? We are talking about a company thats been on the exchange for almost 30yrs, a boring company thats always ticked along.

They've done significant cost reduction exercises, pushed into the synthetics business and the basics of supply and demand would indicate that its unlikely wool prices can maintain record 30yr highs for to much longer especially 3yrs in with lamb meat prices also being at healthy levels.

Wool prices will come down and then as MAC says we have a leaner, meaner CAV and a solid divvie player again.

TG

Disc: bias, hold CAV.