CAV - Cavalier Corp (Carpets)

[noodles]

FY15 Guidance remains at $1m to $4m. Not changing guidance is a miracle in itself and almost unprecedented.

Always got to faith so $4m is it ...they have the 'appropriate strategies in place' to achieve this.

FY15 is $4m so that means second half will be $4m as well

That's nearly double what they made in H2 last year - go you good things, you can do it.

If 2h15 is $4mill, then FY16 could be $8mil. CAV now sitting on a FY16 pe=4

I did enjoy that old 70's show called Fantasy Island

[winner69]

If 2h15 is $4mill, then FY16 could be $8mil. CAV now sitting on a FY16 pe=4

I did enjoy that old 70's show called Fantasy Island

No no mate - you forgot about earnings momentum

Zilch and then +4m gives FY15 as $4m .....then $8m and then $12m gives FY16 as $20m and Pze less than 2

And $20m is no pie in the sky stuff .......they been there before

[winner69]

Pse - you talking of graham Biel and his shareholding ......not throwing the baby out with the bath water

[winner69]

Updated

Punters get sucked in by what the Company says .... and the continued hope that this time is different

Last 8 earnings related announcements

16th August 2013
Report a $6.6m (normalised) NPAT and say ‘we believe the Company is now well positioned to lift future profitability.’
Shareprice week after announcement $1.65

19th November 2013
Expecting a better year with NPAT in the $8 to $10 million tax-paid range.
Shareprice $1.90

28th February 2014
(Tales of woe and misery) we are revising our earnings outlook to $6 to $9 million
Shareprice week after announcement $1.65

26th June 2014
(No tales of woes and misery) but guidance is now between $5 million and $6 million NPAT
Shareprice really should be less than $1

22 August 2014
Announced earnings of $5.8m which disappointingly were down 13% on pcp but at the upper end of guidance (good guess in June eh). But not our fault as it was all Cavalier Wool Holdings fault.
The FY15 Budget is a modest increase on the $5.8m - so all is well and we are progressing well, may evn pay a dividend. We will update at the ASM in November.

24 October 2014
Tales of woe and misery and **** things are pretty bad, so bad we it is unlikely we will achieve the $5.8m after all
Shareprice plunges to 90 cents

22 November 2014

At the monthly piss up lunch (sorry Board Meeting) it was decided they really to quantify what unlikely is and drew some numbers out of the hat - and the answer is normalised tax-paid earnings for the 2015 year was in the range of $1 million to $4 million and the shareprice plunges to close at 60 cents


20 February 2015

Tough trading conditions continue and just so many 'adverse macro events' that are out of our control means we report a petty cash size profit. Heaps better than a loss. Board thinks they can't afford to piss off punters anymore (jeez look at what happened last time) so guidance of $1m to $4m remains in place - really saying we have no idea but hoping like hell things get better

Share price 48 cents


Should keep track of the promises - and my morbid fascination with impending train wrecks continue. At least it keeps me from getting tempted, for now


Updated February 2015

[winner69]

sometimes a word cloud of announcements can be interesting. Here is a quick one of the latest CAV announcemet

Some positive words .... but heck pse the biggest word is MILLION .... good omen eh

Passed the buzzsaw test ..... only 2% of the words were buzzword. Not too bad

[Balance]

W69, earnings downgrades usually come in three's as you and I know.

Cavalier must beat some kind of record as the downgrades come regularly and they still have not reached bottom rung yet!

[macduffy]

Independent director Graeme Edmond has resigned. A short spell - appointed February, 2014. Could be any number of reasons but it's not encouraging for a company to lose a director so quickly.

[winner69]

CAV sinks to new all time low of 36 cents

Might be joining PSE as a shareholder if it drops to 30 cents ..... not as an long term investor but as a quick trade for a quick buck (maybe)

Godfrey Hirst must be laughing their heads off ..... seeing the damage that their taking share off an inept competitor is causing

[winner69]

Jeez 35 now with a buy at 32

If it gets to 30 may as well wait until 25 eh. You be really interested then PSE?

My morbid fascination with impending train wrecks continues ......must get it seem to.

[macduffy]

Jeez 35 now with a buy at 32

If it gets to 30 may as well wait until 25 eh. You be really interested then PSE?

My morbid fascination with impending train wrecks continues ......must get it seem to.

The Germans have a word for the condition - schadenfreude.

Better see a trickcyclist.