CAV - Cavalier Corp (Carpets)

[bull....]

EDIT .. 1.12pm..no trading?.. a bit of a damp squid?

Yeah Bull..that last week price jump seems weird now with no interest after the halt lifting...... Mohawk sniffing you reckon?

seems to be interest today, people probably just needed to digest news.
I still believe price fall was just panicky people getting out at any price, share price was in the 80s before whwn they were only forecasting 5m profit so 3 - 5m could still be 5m so why not back to 80c 90c

[Hoop]

seems to be interest today, people probably just needed to digest news.
I still believe price fall was just panicky people getting out at any price, share price was in the 80s before whwn they were only forecasting 5m profit so 3 - 5m could still be 5m so why not back to 80c 90c

I wouldn't say panicky is the right word..Unfortunately the word "panic" is used too often out of context.....

In CAV's case the severe correction seemed rational to me...Too be fair, any shock announcement of a profit downgrade 5 weeks after a rosy prediction (full year report) going forward and two days after the AGM is not a good look and the market viewed it as such. Mr Market is always a suspicious animal...IMHO the share price correction 4 weeks ago was two folded, not only about the negative earnings disclosure, but also a jump in risk discount ...

Most often there is a price effect built in...perception of good management adds value to the shareprice, perceived poor management results in a discounted shareprice to balance the extra risk....Market confidence with Management can suddenly change..eg a sudden bad result or event.

It seems this Appeal result announcement a couple of days ago has more to do with investor confidence and market perception..A bad outcome would've reinforced market perception that the CAV train was slowly derailing...but as this outcome is favourable the Market seems to be (a jump in share price) forgiving Management this time by lowering the risk discount again and the shareprice is back tracking the similar lines as it was previously...as you say Bull "...share price was in the 80s before when they were only forecasting 5m profit so 3 - 5m could still be 5m so why not back to 80c 90c ..." It seems Mr Market is back agreeing with you..

Mr Market has a long memory and I think Mr Market has put CAV's Management on notice...any promises not fulfilled may see CAV punished

[bull....]

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU161...r-monopoly.htm
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farm...mand-falls-off



looks like the share rise was yesterday was due to Godfrey not appealing wool merger

[bull....]

looks like the nzdaud is on the verge of multi yr breakout above 95c that would be concerning?

[winner69]

ACC a SSH again

Been buying and selling over the last 2 years and now gone over 5%

Mind you they own a bit of most things on the NZX

[Hoop]

ACC a SSH again

Been buying and selling over the last 2 years and now gone over 5%

Mind you they own a bit of most things on the NZX

..and Mr Market has responded with a big yawn....zzzz

[bull....]

http://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news...s-shearing-and

wool prices crashing

[sb9]

http://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news...s-shearing-and

wool prices crashing

https://nzx.com/companies/CAV/announcements/296361

Not looking that great trading update numbers...

[blackcap]

https://nzx.com/companies/CAV/announcements/296361

Not looking that great trading update numbers...

Looks like its going to get savaged on that. 40 cents anyone? (if its the ASX I think it could get to 40 cents, but being the NZX it might take a bit longer to get there.... )

[winner69]

Still losing share in Australia - it's not the market

Hope reigns eternal, we be right one day