CAV - Cavalier Corp (Carpets)

[Beagle]

WOW - At the time of annual report on 29 September they said the outlook for FY17 was positive. On the back of a normalised $6.3m in net profit in FY16 investors could be forgiven for interpreting those positive outlook comments as being implied guidance of $7-8M for FY17 BUT at the mid point of their new forecast they're only talking $4.0m. What a shocking flip-flop in less than 6 weeks !

New guidance represents 5.8 cps. Clear break down through the 100 day MA.

Management keen to point out how strategic repositioning and development sets them up for growth in future years but we've heard that song a few times already, where's the results ?

Disc, don't own and not looking to buy either.

This from 2 November 2016 after the downgrade to $3-$5m. Subsequently I suggested they were worth 10 x 5.8 cents = 58 cents and to be frank I am surprised they ever traded much higher.
Looking back I find it amazing that they could issue such positive commentary in the annual report of 29 September 2016 and its all gone downhill at what can only be described as an extremely fast rate since then.

Given how fast things have deteriorated and the real possibility of a loss for the current year I'd expect to see this company test its all time lows at some stage later this year. Why anyone would pay more than 40 cents now is beyond my comprehension...suppose they live in faith that one day this pup will bark properly.

[janner]

Have picked CAV for the Comp..

My gut said get out .. I did on 5/1/17. @ 0.76 for a small profit. Phew!!!

Pays to listen to the gut feelings some times ..

[winner69]

Hmmm..in hindsight..A super quick 10% profit would have been great.....bugger

Would have had to be super quick

Wonder what tomorrow will bring?

Maybe better resurrect the Mohawk interest rumour

Like Teamtalk Cavalier desperately needs somebody to put them and shareholders out of their misery.

[bull....]

article in nbr today, I don't have access but looks like they saying the profits are coming in 17 - 18

[winner69]

article in nbr today, I don't have access but looks like they saying the profits are coming in 17 - 18

Hope reigns eternal eh bull

They haven't even got to half year announcement and already saying full year will be a loss.

Betcha around break even is a big loss .....and at best next year will be a slight recovery

You hanging in there bull?

[bull....]

Hope reigns eternal eh bull

They haven't even got to half year announcement and already saying full year will be a loss.

Betcha around break even is a big loss .....and at best next year will be a slight recovery

You hanging in there bull?

I brought a few recently see what happens they seem pretty confident I imagine if 17 - 18 becomes a flop then theres not much hope

[Beagle]

article in nbr today, I don't have access but looks like they saying the profits are coming in 17 - 18

Its like the boy that cried wolf. They've been saying for years now that growth is coming...just saying. I find it hard to believe they're still ~ 60 cents. Fair value to me was 58 cents when they were shooting for $3 - $5m profit. Now I struggle to see a reason why they shouldn't retest all time lows of ~ 40 cents. Obviously some people still believe their latest version of the truth.

[winner69]

Hope CAV not relying on a booming new house market in NZ

Can't make money when number if new house builds anually have doubled in the last few years and now seems to be on the way down as per Westpac comment on today's building consents data release - The number of new residential dwelling consents issued fell sharply in December, down 7.2%. That followed a large 9.6% decline in November. This recent weakness does follow strong issuance earlier in the year. In fact, on an annual basis, consent issuance is still up around 19%. But these data raise the risk of the pace of homebuilding slowing down in early 2017

[macduffy]

They've been saying for years now that growth is coming...just saying

To be fair to current management they havn't really had much time to turn the company around. So I'd give them a bit of lattitude - but no money! - at this stage.

[bull....]

a tale of 2 halfs
https://thewest.com.au/business/agriculture/price-at-26-year-high-as-china-warms-to-wool-ng-b88382579z

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU170...at-auction.htm

maybe they should export carpet to aus from nz cheaper input costs maybe?