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  1. #1
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    Wink CAV - Cavalier Corp (Carpets)

    Note that cav has a 11 cps div coming with today as the record date.

    sp has dropped 62 in the last 10 days.

    it is currently 2 cents lower than when the results were announced 4 weeks ago.

    and, not buys/sells today, so no movement from its crash low yesterday.

    so, is the market rational/irrational with respect to cav?
    scamper

  2. #2
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    I'd say it's just getting trashed, along with the rest of the market. A preponderance of sellers over buyers.
    Note it's up a couple of cents today - along with the rest of the market!


  3. #3
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    Scamper ex date is next Friday.

    Dividends

    The policy of paying dividends three times a year continues.

    The Directors have declared a fully imputed final dividend for the year ended
    30 June 2008 of 11 cents per share, an increase of 0.5 cent on the equivalent
    for the previous year.

    This final dividend, together with the first interim of 3 cents per share
    paid in December 2007 and the second interim of 6 cents per share paid in
    March 2008, gives a total of 20 cents - 1 cent up on the 19 cents per share
    for the previous year.

    The final dividend will be paid on Friday, 3 October 2008. The share register
    will close at 5 p.m. on Friday, 26 September 2008 for the purpose of
    determining entitlement to the dividend and will reopen on Monday, 29
    September 2008.

  4. #4
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    one of us has a misapprehension...
    besides, i didn't mention the phrase "ex-date", cos i'm not entirely sure what it refers to...

    but, if you buy today, you get the divi.
    and then, if you sell on monday, you still get the divi.

    so it seems that monday is the ex date, no? are we actually on the same page?
    cheers, scamper.

  5. #5
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    It looks like you're a week early, scamper. Relevant dates are 26 and 29 Sept according to announcement on CAV website.


  6. #6
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    scamper's a dope. thought today was the 26th...
    back to the kennel.

  7. #7
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    I don't know whether it is the times we are in or something else but many company announcements are starting to confuse (or cloud) the real picture ... and Cavalier is no exception.

    Like - after raving on how hard thing are going to be they say ...our earnings outlook for the year to 30 June 2009 as a range from $11 million tax paid (which would be almost 40% down on last year) to $13 million tax paid (almost 30% down on last year). ..... this doesn't so bad. H1 earnings were down 7% on last year (would have been more if it wasn't for the contribution from Ellison carpets) so things are going to get worse if Full year is going to be down 40% - the guidance doesn't specifically say that second half earnings are going to be down 65% does it. Thats some damage eh

    When they mention debt they talk about ratios and (purposely?) don't actually state a debt figure. In the narrative they do say equity is $83m (less than June 08 because the payment of last years dividend was higher than earnings) but overlook to specifically say that debt is $97m. Probably a lot of debt if icash flows are reducing to the degree that the earnings guidance imply.

    One other thing they did mention that inventories are increasing ... up tp $70m which is enough to support the next 6 months sales .... hope they don't make too much more .... maybe some cheap carpets coming up.

    Have they been transparent enough in their announcement ... headlines and comments are not too bad but in my mind some of the real stuff is missing

  8. #8
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    In saying all that at 170 odd is on about 10 times forecast earnings ... these days a pretty hefty multiple and in view of what might happen after June a bit high

    However CAV is on the face of it one of the less stressed companies on the NZX (solvency wise) so got something going for them

  9. #9
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    Default Longterm CAV Chart

    The market giveth - and the market taketh away....



    An illustration of why exit strategies are important.

  10. #10
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    What I hadn't noticed that CAV debt increased by $14m from December 07 to June 08 ($70m to $84m) and then by another $13m (to $97m) in the six months from June 08 to december 08

    Definitely going the wrong way .... but they say they do something about it

    Some also might say that they have been borrowing to pay the regular dividends

    Feltex had the iconic tag .... sure Cavalier Bremworth is just as iconic .... making carpets that NZers live on since the 50's
    Last edited by winner69; 21-02-2009 at 10:12 AM.

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