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  1. #591
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lizard View Post
    I think BSH is more likely to want extra equity in order to fund lending while their depositor base contracts.
    This is the $64,000 question.At the last meeting they spoke of the high renewals of the building societies,and the fact they had too much cash and too much liquidity.
    Some people will say they will lose "loyal" depositers once GG is lifted,others say the banking licence will mean they will retain "loyal"depositors and will attract new "loyal" depositors.I can only hope it is the latter.

  2. #592
    Share Collector
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    Hi percy,

    Yes, maybe I am being too pessimistic. Should point out that CBS renewal rates were up at 80% for January, although average term still only 7 months at that point, so not really indicative of ex-guarantee period in itself. However, 30% of deposits were non-guaranteed, which is probably more significant, as are less likely to be affected by expiry of the guarantee in their decision-making.

  3. #593
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lizard View Post
    Hi percy,

    Yes, maybe I am being too pessimistic. Should point out that CBS renewal rates were up at 80% for January, although average term still only 7 months at that point, so not really indicative of ex-guarantee period in itself. However, 30% of deposits were non-guaranteed, which is probably more significant, as are less likely to be affected by expiry of the guarantee in their decision-making.
    You maybe too pessimistic,I may be too optimistic.I remember one time saying to Selena I thought unemployment was getting high at 5%.He said I had it the wrong way round.It was very positive we had 95% full employment!!!!

  4. #594
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    You guys are all over the place with your thinking as to what PGC is worth

    Prob George is the only one who has a clue as he is waits in the shadows getting ready to make his move and possibly rape and pillage you in the process

    However why not do a simple bottom up valuation and see what the sum of the parts are ... in $ terms and then you can assess what the shareprice could be

    If you guys want to give me the numbers I'll do it for you but percy might have more time on his hands and could become the 'owner' of the valuation .... how about it percy

    So list what PGC has and see what each part is worth - some like PGW shares are straight forward but no doubt you all have a view on what the other parts are worth .... but collective wisdom can be quite powerful

    So whose going to start the ball rolling - a list to start with and no doubt missed something off

    Interest in PGW is $X (some will convert to cash soon)
    Perpetual is worth $y
    Wealth Management is worth $Z
    Cash $Z
    Other factors like whether they owe Marac or not ?


    Let's add it up and see eh
    PGW

  5. #595
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    Well i guess i'll do the easy part and figure out what the value of PGW is worth.

    PGC owns 18.3% of PGW or 138 711 372 shares, they are selling 38.3% of these shares to Agria @ 60c, 53 126 455 shares x 60c = $31 875 873 (cash)

    This leaves PGC holding 85 584 917 shares in PGW, with an average annual price of say 53c, 85 584 917 x 53c = $45 360 006

    Add these figures together and you get $77 235 879, divided this into the reduced number of PGC shares 215 821 325 and you get 35c a share.

  6. #596
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    You guys are all over the place with your thinking as to what PGC is worth

    Prob George is the only one who has a clue as he is waits in the shadows getting ready to make his move and possibly rape and pillage you in the process

    However why not do a simple bottom up valuation and see what the sum of the parts are ... in $ terms and then you can assess what the shareprice could be

    If you guys want to give me the numbers I'll do it for you but percy might have more time on his hands and could become the 'owner' of the valuation .... how about it percy

    So list what PGC has and see what each part is worth - some like PGW shares are straight forward but no doubt you all have a view on what the other parts are worth .... but collective wisdom can be quite powerful

    So whose going to start the ball rolling - a list to start with and no doubt missed something off

    Interest in PGW is $X (some will convert to cash soon)
    Perpetual is worth $y
    Wealth Management is worth $Z
    Cash $Z
    Other factors like whether they owe Marac or not ?


    Let's add it up and see eh
    PGW
    What a great post winner69.
    Yes, I expect George Ker knows the exact values of each part of PGC.As I have been raped and pillage once to often on the market I thought it was only right to have some ideas of value.To me it looked as though other posters could only see NTA of BSH.I knew less than half of PGC 's assets went into BSH so there was a lot of value still in PGC.Lizard's NTA of 95cents post no.626 on this thread and SCOTTY's NTA of 93.73 post no.64 on BSH thread confirm there is a lot of value there.I am not competent enough to give meaningful valuations to the parts of PGC.The hardest to value must be the wealth management,yet this is where Ker made his money.I am happy enough to know there is value there.
    Last edited by percy; 19-04-2011 at 04:10 PM.

  7. #597
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Thanks ETC for telling me what the PGW shares are worth to PGC

    Why I think you guys are all the place with your thinking and why we should try to do a bottom up sum of the parts valuation is explained below. Firstly forget all about BSH distibutions and share cancellations and all that - just concentrate on today

    Even that is difficult because PGC is one of those companies who like to keep shareholders in the dark - one bad point and some take 10% or more any valuation just for that reason - but I digress

    Anyway the value of PGW and BSH interests we can calculate - as at today they are worth $76.0m and $153,8m respectively (the PGW does depend on how much scaling eventuates). We know they are going to repay that P Note of $27.0m so take that off. Hidden away on the balance sheet are some other liabilities estimated at about $5.0m. I see they show a tax asset but i tend to ignore these when doing valuations. Also hard to see what cash they may be holding but assume there is float somewhere and lets use $2,0m

    So the parts we know about are worth a nice round $200m today

    The market cap (what the collective wisdom of all the punters in the land except George think PGC is worth )today of PGC is $234m

    So is Perpetual, Torchlight, some other bits and pieces and the impaired investments inherited from Marac only worth $34m in total?

    Whose going to start the ball rolling with valuations of these bits and pieces to complete the jigsaw

    For one the impaired assets from marac are in the books at $60m odd - surely they can't be all bad? but Hanover, SCF stuff were pretty bad - what you guys think they are worth in todays money

    Perpetual according to one preso i saw made about $5m operating profit so must be worth something. Jeez after all the Trust part actually exists and they have $500m under management or I like the term advice. Then again the punters might be thinking that Perpetual Trust are going to be sued heaps re some of finance company collapses but one think they have some insurance for this

    Didn't they sink $15m into Torchlight to get it up and running - surely not lost the lot even though I gather George has put some extra money in - what value do we put on that.

    In the notes to the interim accounts there are bits like topping up any shortfall in something (I didn't read too throughly) and in one of the announcemets there was something about topping up BSH by using spare cash and giving you guys the shares they get (didn't really understand this)

    we are getting there - so lets put some numbers around these parts - the average of our expert opinions will make a pretty good guess

    maybe George is getting ready to rape and pillage shareholders .... but then again maybe George knows best

    So appears one should take the free money on offer - if it doesn't turn out that way we can always look back to see what went wrong

    So what do we put down as what the parts are worth?

  8. #598
    percy
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    Thanks again winner69.
    PGC put $15mil into Torchlight as seed capital/shareholding.Torchlight raised I think over $160mil ,which Ker lent to SCF at a very high interest rate.They were the first to be paid out,so they got the money back with interest.No word as to what they/Kerr have/has done with this money.Torchlight would have charged SCF loan establishment fees etc.So I would think the Torchlight holding has to be a lot more than the $15 mil PGC put into it.Say Ker earnt 2% fees?On $145 mil that would be near $3mil a year.That would value Torchlight at say $12mil.add the $15mil seed capital then Torchlight holding should be worth $27mil not $15mil.Torchlight fund may well have grown from the $160mil.What surprised me most was how quickly ker raised this amount of money.Not 10mil,not 25mil,but over $160mil.!!!!! Not a lot of people have thought about that.!!!
    Last edited by percy; 20-04-2011 at 06:45 PM.

  9. #599
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    Perpetual seems to be growing…

    “In the six month period ended 31 December 2010 Perpetual also acquired $105 million of funds under advice and established nine new funds. Perpetual now has $587 million in either funds under advice or management.”

    If they have a 1% to 2% management fee then their income should be around 5 to 10 million a year. So far this year they are reporting an after tax loss of $0.4 million, but they put this down to costs associated to “growing the business”.

    Torchlight and EPIC seems to be managed by Perpetual and have contributed $2.9 million so far in annuity and fees. I wonder how much of Perpetual’s “acquired $105 million” is related to these two funds and if the $2.9 million is counted as part of Perpetual’s earnings?

    I’m unsure what’s happening with RECL, it looks like PGC have set up some sort of contract with MARAC where they manage the bad loans for a fee but take on the responsibility of losses. Am I right? This doesn’t seem like a great deal for PGC, especially if all the loans go south and PGC ends up owing MARAC… anyway the contract to manage the property looks to be worth 11 million over 5 years so it’s worth $2.2 million annually.

    I put the revenue of PGC (- minus MARAC) at 7 million to 12 million a year. I’ve left out the earnings from Torchlight/ EPIC as I’m unsure how they relate to the Perpetual Group.

    Note this is definitely back-of-the-napkin math, I’d appreciate any input.
    Last edited by ETC; 20-04-2011 at 11:01 PM. Reason: Spelling

  10. #600
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Looking back over the posts and making some assumptions about what posters are really saying I feel the consensus worth of the parts are something like this -

    PGW interest $76m
    BSH interest $154m
    P Note ($27m)
    Other stuff ($3m)
    Sub total $200m

    Perpetual / Wealth Mgt bits $40m - Perpetual earnings of $3m plus bits like EPAM
    Torchlight $25m -percy says worth more than the $15m they put in
    Real Estate Assets $25m - discount the $50m of assets by 50%
    Ongoing business $90m

    TOTAL $290m

    Against market cap of $234 PGC a bargain on this basis

    But looking forward even more of a bargain if you believe the $90m worth of the ongoing businesses comapred to the residual market cap of $34m after allowing for the parts we know are valued correctly (aand not wanted by PGC)

    One could say $90m for $34m - good stuff eh
    Last edited by winner69; 22-04-2011 at 08:31 AM.

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