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  1. #1
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    Default MHI Chart

    Gryffyn, here is the MHI chart you wanted.
    MHI has been in an uptrend for about a year now. This uptrend has been characterised by a series of symmetrical triangles. These are a reasonably bullish formation, in that 64% of them break to the upside, 34% down. The current symmetrical triangle is forming nicely and an upside breakout would confirm continuation of the uptrend. A downside breakout would spoil the pretty chart.
    I have plotted trendlines and their associated buy/sell signals, along with a 100 day simple moving average such as would be used by a medium-term trader. The moving average crossover signals provide useful confirmation of the trendline break signals, though usually some time later.
    The 1 year ema is plotted to give some idea of how such an indicator would be used by long-term/buy/hold trader/investors. There are a lot fewer signals, and of course they are always late - this is a very conservative moving average. Not everyone wants to trade actively, and the use of such an indicator keeps long-term holders on the right side of the major trends.
    A 14% Stoploss is plotted, but this is really a backstop - other indicators will usually have signalled an exit long before this would be hit.
    Current price action is well above the 4 indicators plotted here.

  2. #2
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    Thanks for the chart Phaedrus. I have been looking at MHI since a relative told me MH's aim is 1000 stores in 18 years time (now thats longterm!). I'll now be watching for an upside breakout, or a bounce off the trendline or ema after a downside breakout.
    EPS b4 all else!
    Hold NPX,RCH,PRG,GPG,TWR,CHP,CDI,ITC

  3. #3
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    Thanks very much Phaedrus :-)

    Confirms my decision to sell at 5.99 and stay out for now. I expect more activity will come around the next reporting date.

    Interesting that MHI was picked by many as the one share they would invest in if they had to make a choice but TA plus basic fundamentals don't give it the same gloss. I guess everyone loves a winning story and the gut feel is that long-term this is still a very good share.

    Thanks again.
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  4. #4
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    I am happy to hold -in a solid uptrend I hope.

  5. #5
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    quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

    Interesting that MHI was picked by many as the one share they would invest in if they had to make a choice but TA plus basic fundamentals don't give it the same gloss. I guess everyone loves a winning story and the gut feel is that long-term this is still a very good share.
    I presume you are talking the fundamentals of the share price and not the underlying business? I think the business fundamentals look solid, despite short/medium'ish term risks of a retail downturn.

  6. #6
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    Yes, P/E and yield don't necessarily stack up against some other shares but I agree that the underlying business looks sound.

    Certainly an easy share to appraise in that regard - nice and focused with their plans clearly set out.

    Whether a lot of that track record and optimism is already priced in is the question and the share funds plus TA make it appear so.
    Fantasy Premier League 2006/07, 2007/08, and 2008/09 Champion :-)

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  7. #7
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    MHI
    13/07/2004
    GENERAL

    REL: 1311 HRS Michael Hill International Limited

    GENERAL: MHI: Unaudited Sales figures for 12 months ended 30 June 2004

    Note that these figures are preliminary figures and do not necessarily
    reflect accounting adjustments.
    Note also that the comparative figures for Last Year reflect the final
    audited figures for that period.
    Same stores have been opened for the whole of the corresponding period.
    All figures are in New Zealand dollars.

    12 month Sales Last Year This Year % Var

    Same Stores
    New Zealand $82,034,357 $82,981,726 +1.2%
    Australia $131,502,051 $146,017,350 +11.0%
    Total Same Stores $214,760,620 $230,593,084 +7.2%

    All Stores
    New Zealand $83,784,000 $86,381,070 +3.1%
    Australia $138,710,246 $166,935,540 +20.3%
    Canada $2,307,688 $5,862,487 +154.0%
    Total All Stores $224,801,934 $259,179,097 +15.3%

    Exchange rates used:
    Australia 0.89 0.88
    Canada 0.80 0.84

    Commentary

    1. NZ sales were 8.0% up for the fourth quarter and finished the year
    1.2% up on last year.
    2. The Australian stores continued to perform strongly in the June
    quarter and same stores sales finished the year 9.8% up on last year in $A.
    3. Canadian sales figures for the 12 months were for 4 stores compared
    to 8 months of sales for the previous year.
    4. The overall same store increase for the 12 months of 7.2% is a
    pleasing result.
    5. The full year profit announcement will be made on the 20th August
    2004.

    R.M.Hill
    Chairman 13/7/04

    Inquiries

    Wayne Butler, Company Secretary 021 976800
    End CA:00102546 For:MHI Type:GENERAL Time:2004-07-13:13:11:09
    Fantasy Premier League 2006/07, 2007/08, and 2008/09 Champion :-)

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  8. #8
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    Anyone thinking this share is fairly/fully valued?

    Good result but not stellar. More sideways softness predicted for next 6 months I think.

    Disc: None but considering re-acquiring.
    Fantasy Premier League 2006/07, 2007/08, and 2008/09 Champion :-)

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  9. #9
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    Pretty close to fully valued.

    Underlines its future growth is offshore (Aust and Canada, possibly US?). 1.2pct same stores growth in NZ, below the rate of inflation.
    Marriage isn't a word. It's a sentence

  10. #10
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    Yup, NZ WHS will eventually have some impact in NZ as well as Farmers / Pascoes tie up. Staying out for a bit longer methinks.
    Fantasy Premier League 2006/07, 2007/08, and 2008/09 Champion :-)

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  11. #11
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    I call MHI fully priced at this point. I applied a 5.5% gross margin (avg of the last 2 yrs) to the FY sales figures, derived the eps based on 38.5M shares on issue then applied a fair if not slightly generous PE of 16 and $5.95ish pops out.

    Still a good share but there are better opportunities around for now.
    Prophet

  12. #12
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    Not disagreeing but interesting-if one applied the same PE of 16 to WHS its shareprice should be about $3.15.

    IMO WHS has a long way south to go yet.

  13. #13
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    Wouldn't disagree with that observation at all KJ although WHS has historically had a stronger PE than that. Still is it deserved now - possibly not. Is WHS headed south - probably yes.
    Prophet

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    Prophet

    So your eps calc is for the FY just completed? What about eps for the current FY? And what about next FY etc.? What chance of ongoing annual sales increases similar to this year, and profit increases?

    I'm happy with the way they are performing.

  15. #15
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    yes its fully valued now

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