MHJ - Michael Hill International.

[Rawz]

Good to see Canada sales getting back to pre-covid levels

Good or a worry -- most retailers seem to have a good couple of years with current sales level (annual basis) quite a way above pre-covid levels in spite of lockdowns etc ..... ie they've done well capturing the pent up demand plus.

Checking back Canada sales are much the same as they were at June 2018 .... and margins not much better ....and profit doesn't seem to have improved either

Hey rawz - whats going on with Canada, the icing on the Christmas cake

Suppose you'll tell me ....it's all about the future

Not sure tbh mate. What about the store count? I’m guessing it’s shrunk. Maybe the sale of the Canada store finance book has impacted the numbers as well?

CFO said in the agm last year that he watches the store metrics very closely. The theme of the business seems to be make more with less. As long as EPS goes up that’s all that matters

[Waltzing]

Winner Canada has performed in an country where real men are lumber jacks and girls wear Bear Fur... or used too.

Canada is still not back to 2018 levels. Half way between 2017 and 2018.

Very competitive business world wide.

Got to be a Div increase.

[winner69]

...........
The theme of the business seems to be make more with less. As long as EPS goes up that’s all that matters

I think its going to be making about the same (if not less) with less from this point of time onwards

My guess for FY22 is EPS to be less than FY21

That 'bet' re STU and MHJ share price reaching 2 bucks --- odds on STU might get there this year but methinks MHJ will never get there

[Waltzing]

Winner its going to take more efforts for sure but a happy team is a performing team.

STU in a different sector and it will take longer MHJ. Canada will have to expand which means more stores in Canada.

Population 38 Odd million, very big country, perhaps difficult to place new stores which means a very slow expansion but they will have to expand.

No business is static and without the abilities to execute ideas.

[winner69]

Was going to buy more but after pondering where they heading and future prospects I’ll leave those shares for the zoomers like waltz to pick up

[Rawz]

I think its going to be making about the same (if not less) with less from this point of time onwards

My guess for FY22 is EPS to be less than FY21

That 'bet' re STU and MHJ share price reaching 2 bucks --- odds on STU might get there this year but methinks MHJ will never get there

How do you arrive at that, Winner?

Have you had another look at half year profit estimate?

[Waltzing]

"zoomers like waltz to pick up"

my personal account has some.

But the entities no longer as the i stated we lightened already.

The other Zoomers were astounded it got this far...

Personally im staying a bit longer... and have stated 1.30 would trigger interest..

But im with you winner. They will have to expand somewhere to push on to 2 dollars.

They have executed this time and not ready to say that's their game plan over.

If your AVE price is well under a dollar your siting pretty.

The financials are a big job as this company as a few moving parts.

Got a bit of time while i wait for the next release of our software.

Once the new release is fit for purpose a lot of manual data comparisons will be script automated for markets.

[winner69]

Got some MHJ when they were cheap ... only reason probably .... and basically followed the rhetoric and hype since without doing any proper research.

The rhetoric about record Q2 sales and 10 consecutive quarters of same store sales growth and all the big percentages they seem to produce in their quarterly updates plus all the other stuff they rave about doesn't show in the chart below.

Seems a pretty ordinary effort to me .... even allowing for store closures and all that stuff .... and gross margin doesn't seem to have improved that much

The big question is whether will we see any decent sustained sales growth in the next few years - if not MHJ not cheap at moment

Lucky that I've done more than OK but I should have really checked whether rhetoric matches the numbers

[winner69]

aye. i don't begrudge any retailer (or anyone else) for keeping the wage subsidy when they were legally able to do so. The downside, however, it makes YOY comps harder, assessing what is maintable more difficult, and I dont think it fair to do a multiple on earnings keeping them, as its not a long term or high quality source of income (IE, it is worth the net of tax cash rec'd and nothing else). I dont know how much MHJ has rec'd - loads I suspect. HLG rec;d over 13 million in the 2 years to august 2021. I wish briscoes had kept theirs but handed it all back - the only upside is going forward they won't cycle off them. When doing a deep dive on the underlying economics of each business best to take the subsidy out, so as to see the true underlying profit and implied valuation metrics based on operating earnings. makes a pretty big impact

Moose FYI - MHJ received subsidies of A$17.7m in F20 and A$14.6m in F21. They don't count this in their Comparable EBIT

But most recipients of subsidies had windfall sales after lockdowns..... MHJ don't seem to have achieved this

[Waltzing]

Winner they may not have got this wind fall but they are still in the game and the DIV is notGood Yield in question.

In the old days Rules might be used by investors.

In KISS principal.
Low Long term Debt.
Solvent.
Good Yield.
Good Sale programs that value employees.
Net Profit not Net Loss.

MHJ is now inside this Rule Set.