MHJ - Michael Hill International.

[Phaedrus]

George, MHI has been in a shallow downtrend since 2004. Why buy? The trend channel is wide enough to trade, should you be interested in that sort of thing. An oscillator such as a long period Williams'%R gives quite good entry and exit signals. But... why would you be interested? It is much easier, much safer and much more profitable to trade stocks that are in uptrends. Why fight the trend?

[Footsie]

the trend is your friend

[rmbbrave]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3848569a13,00.html

Jewellery chain targets Britain
03 November 2006
By DAVID HARGREAVES

Jewellery chain Michael Hill International is set to launch an assault on another country - probably Britain - within two years, chairman Michael Hill says.


Mr Hill said after yesterday's annual meeting in Auckland that the company was tossing up between opening stores in the United States or Britain.

But he thought it more probable it would be Britain, where he believed the existing jewellery competition was fragmented and could be taken on.

"I think we would have a field day."

Work was already being done on a potential launch, which would be done with about three trial shops - much as the company earlier did in Canada.

The company has 12 stores in Canada and a further six are planned for opening this year. Mr Hill said it was hoped the company could get into profit in Canada this year.

He believed the potential in Canada was enormous and the company could ultimately end up with as many as 150 stores there.

"It all takes time but it is worth it. People said we would not crack Canada - but we are doing it."

At the moment Michael Hill international has a total of 177 stores.

The majority - 116 of them are in Australia, with 49 in New Zealand.

In the year to June the company reported a 4 per cent drop in after tax profits to $15.8 million as tough trading conditions in Australia and high gold prices had an impact.

But in giving about 200 shareholders at yesterday's meeting a "sneak preview" of where the company planned to go, Mr Hill said the company was not clouded by short term objectives. It had a 20 year goal of 1000 shops.

"We have a very long term objective. We are looking well ahead. We are not too interested in what the market thinks about us in the short term. We are focused on our vision and where we want to be.

"There is not a global chain of middle class jewellery shops. We want to be the first one. It might take time but we are committed to it." The company is changing emphasis on its products. It is now stocking a lot more diamonds and is soon to launch new Michael Hill brand watches.

"Once you have your own brand you no longer need to discount," Mr Hill said.

Some of the new watches would be in stores before Christmas, but most would be released next year.

The company is doubling the size of its head office in Brisbane as it gears up for growth and moves to centralised supply.

"There is no short term quick fix. That is not the way we work," Mr Hill said.

"You will be looking at a multi-billion dollar company within 20 years. Stick with us for the ride it is going to be one hell of a trip."

Is Mike getting carried away?

[COLIN]

quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

George, MHI has been in a shallow downtrend since 2004. Why buy? The trend channel is wide enough to trade, should you be interested in that sort of thing. An oscillator such as a long period Williams'%R gives quite good entry and exit signals. But... why would you be interested? It is much easier, much safer and much more profitable to trade stocks that are in uptrends. Why fight the trend?

Looks like the uptrend is here!
I was taken by surprise by yesterday's announcement, particularly the 11.1% increase in same-store sales. This seems a remarkable achievement in what we are told by other major retailers has been a difficult market lately, particularly as compared with the likes of HLG. Why have people been spending heaps more money on useless bling rather than useful clothing? Has anyone got a rational explanation? Can't think of one myself.

[Nevl]

I think MHI will do pretty well over the next 6 months. Have being stocking up at 6.70 since November and am happy with how it is going. 15 mill half year add another 10 for the second half and it is all looking good. Should get its growth premium back too. I think it could hit 8.50 again in about 6 months. Am very interested to see how Canada is doing also. This announcement was actually foreshadowed with the Quarterly announcement in October. They announced excellent figures then. So good to see that they continued.

[rmbbrave]

quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

I have had a pretty good run buying MHI on dips and selling for a profit but I am just a leettle bit worried this time around.

Disc: Bought last week at 7.17

And I didn't sell these either!

I'm in the money now.

[Halebop]

I think they've done well but a good chunk of it will prove to be currency translations. Might be a false start if Bollard raises interest rates and the $NZ rises further. Still, compare that result with ANC's last one and the qualitative differences become apparent.

[Nevl]

Nope on the currency. This is the second half when the Kiwi was strengthening. It should have made the result worse. Also despite tighter margins in the gold prices. SO a currency getting worse and higher raw materials they still pull out a good one.

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by Nevl

Nope on the currency. This is the second half when the Kiwi was strengthening. It should have made the result worse. Also despite tighter margins in the gold prices. SO a currency getting worse and higher raw materials they still pull out a good one.

Not entirely. Gold is traded in $US. The $NZ has strengthened against the $US, reducing inputs. Although the gold price has risen in the last few months, for the six month period it has been pretty neutral thanks to the August to October dips. It's a fairly similar story between the $A / $USA and Australia is where much of the manufacturing is done. This may have had an exaggerated impact in Canada where I suspect (albeit without knowing Canada specific numbers) the business should have moved from loss to breakeven or profit on those sorts of numbers.

This is not to downplay the sales improvement - particularly if they acheived those sorts of results in the cash flow rich New Zealand business.

[rmbbrave]

quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

I have had a pretty good run buying MHI on dips and selling for a profit but I am just a leettle bit worried this time around.

Disc: Bought last week at 7.17

And I didn't sell these either!

I'm in the money now.

$8.00

Really in the money