MHJ - Michael Hill International.

[Nevl]

I think Phadreus' initial anaylsis was correct but then new info entered the market ie improved retail sales. This is where TA can sometimes lead to the wrong decisions. It will be interesting to see if this new info is enough to break the trend that Phadreus has identified. Todays close may suggest so. Still I believe that useing his charts would be a great help and I appreciate his advice. I would also like to nominate Phadreus for ST poster of the year with C9 being a good runner up. Following Phadreus and C9's advice would lead to a pretty good return in the last 14 months. Thanks guys.

[Alban]

We would have needed a close of above $8.20 today for the downtrend to have been punctured.

[kiwi_on_OE]

Has there been any TA comment about using linear or log graphs, I couldn't find it after a quick look. Some graphs use linear, some use log.

I noticed on the last graph (log) that the current downtrend would interesct with a continuation of the turquoise uptrend, that went from about 4.5 to 6.0, at about 7.8-7.9 in late Feb/early Mar. What are peoples thoughts about the uptrend resuming then? Would/could that coincide with the half year results?

Conspiracy theory: If the price/date identified is correct, is it by accident or did some traders plan it?

[Phaedrus]

Craic, I don't think I understand your question. The Close on any later day would alter nothing if the trendline had already been broken.

Nevl, There has been a trendline break. The idea behind this approach is that these things give early warning of any weakening of the trend. The latest trendline break triggered on 2/12/04. By 14/12/04 MHI was in a confirmed downtrend. The trendline break therefore worked superbly in this instance, giving early warning of the subsequent trend reversal. These facts are now history and no subsequent price action would make them "wrong". Now, how long the current downtrend runs for is another question entirely. It is presumed to be in place until it is reversed by a subsequent uptrend. To do this MHI must make a higher high after a higher low. It has yet to make a higher low, let alone a higher high. There is a tentative trendline in place, marked in red on the chart posted 14/12/04. A break of this line would provide a possible entry point for those wanting to buy in to this stock.

KoOE, mathematically, logarithmic price scales should always be used.
If only a small price range is being charted, there is no practical difference between the two. I sometimes use linear price scales where such a scale gives a nice tidy trendline with plenty of confirmations, and a log scale does not.

I am always very sceptical of conspiracy theories. Have you ever tried to manipulate the market? It is very, very difficult, and requires very deep pockets. Even them, any influence is minimal and only short-term.

[kiwi_on_OE]

Phaedrus - just joking about the conspiracy theory (I hope), but it would be an interesting coincidence.

[Arthur]

Hi techies

Is the down trend still valid?

Thanks in advance

Arthur

[Halebop]

It's not in downtrend but not yet definatively in uptrend again either although technically I'd say uptrend recommenced at $8.20. RSI, MacD and progressive closes above the moving averages all look good.

The fundamentalist in me says its in a trading range pending confirmation of growth stock status. Market will be nervous about negative sentiment re Australian economy but factoring growth from additional store openings and long term international potential from Canada et al.

[Phaedrus]

Chart update. Since the trendline break triggered a Sell on December 2 last year, MHI has continued to weaken, firing off assorted Sell signals as it goes. Technically, there is no excuse whatsoever for holding this stock right now!

[k1w1]

Unless you like blue sky and sausages .

Phaedrus, will your software allow you to draw on the chart a small grey flightless bird, wearing a BBQ apron, warning somewhat early up on the left of the peak ?

[craic]

Sold out of MHI this morning. Partly Phaedruse's fault - but only partly. IRD have a formula that strips me of 19.5 cents in every dollar. From the same gross dollar Work and Income take 70 cents in rebate of my partners "super" because she has not quite reached the magic age of sixty-five. That leaves me with 10.5 cents in each dollar I earn - less of course the GST when I go to spend it. So the move is to capital growth and away from dividend-bearing stocks.