MHJ - Michael Hill International.

[kiwi_on_OE]

Phaedrus, I should've listened to you earlier. I saw it happening as you indicated and did nothing. Serves me right. What is your view of the TA if you go back a year or so? To me it looks like it was in a reasonably steady uptrend from 9/03 to 9/04 before taking off. A continuation of such a line would indicate a possible meeting not far below the current share price. Perhaps longer term holders will be happy to wait for a bounce at that point.

[stephen]

Where have all the bidders gone,
Long time passing,
Where have all the bidders gone
Long time ago,
They've eaten all the sausages,
Ate the snarlers every one,
Filled up on blue sky in a bun,
Looooong ago.

*ahem*

I'm waiting too. Might buy in again soon. When's their next announcement due?

[k1w1]

Craic, what would happen if you sold the shares just before the divy payment? Then you wouldnt have an income from divys. Often the Sp has risen anyway due to the upcoming dividend. Just a thought.

Thats bloody good, Stephen, you've got a gift there mate ..

[Placebo]

I enjoyed the run over the last 8 months, sold out a week or two ago.

Thanks for the info Phaedrus, was a major factor in my selling decision (had been considering profit taking on MHI anyway).

[craic]

Kiwi, had considered that but I want to avoid being classed as a trader.

[k1w1]

Craic, if your worried about looking like a trader have a look at AHUG, and RRT both run by the highly regarded Record Investments RCD which is mentored by the clever boys of Allco Finance.

Both of these don't pay dividends instead they return capital. AHUG at about 9% per annum tax free and RRT was 10c per unit last year ( worked out about the same)

[craic]

Kiwi, managed 57% myself if I remember rightly and that did not include dividends.

[k1w1]

Fair enough Craic. But you could include RRT in your investment horizon without worrying about divy complications. If you included RRT options (RRTO) you may make 114%!

[stephen]

Last year they announced half year results in the 2nd week of Feb. I presume the big dip is partly people contemplating what this year's results might hold.

[winner69]

Still plenty of high expectations built into the price at 735 - 19 times last years earnings and 17 times the consensus analysts forecast for this year

So unless MHI come up with a $11-$12M H1 profit next week what will happen?

Flat profit result and a rerating to something like what FPA went down to (14 times earnings) and 550 would not be a surprise

But wouldn't fall that far on the interim but possibly drift down that far over the rest of the year

PS
Snoopy's Buffet analysis on the other channel said that if you wanted a 15% annual return from MHI you should only be paying $2.97