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  1. #1221
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    Indeed .. yet another exciting & rewarding experience for poor unfortunate holders of TWR contributory dreadfuls

    NTA - Static
    EPS - Down not quite half mast
    DPS - All Zero's

    Rewards all dished out to Policy Holders (all $7.2 mil of it)

    Stakeholders once again get left hung out to dry another duration, it seems

    No wonder the TWR SP always seems to head south fairly quickly

    Discl: Not a Holder
    ... the fine art of sniffing out debits & credits hidden under the carpet can pay dividends ...

  2. #1222
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    Quote Originally Posted by nztx View Post
    Indeed .. yet another exciting & rewarding experience for poor unfortunate holders of TWR contributory dreadfuls

    NTA - Static
    EPS - Down not quite half mast
    DPS - All Zero's

    Rewards all dished out to Policy Holders (all $7.2 mil of it)

    Stakeholders once again get left hung out to dry another duration, it seems

    No wonder the TWR SP always seems to head south fairly quickly

    Discl: Not a Holder
    There is some useful strength in underlying metrics, but it is no surprise the market is applying a significant discount to the possible true value. This is most likely due to lack of confidence in managements ability to do their core job of estimating risks accurately. Going back to page 44 of the 2018 annual report page Tower estimated that the net EQC receivable was $52m and a risk margin of $10.1m had been allowed in this figure so something over $62m was expected. The 2019 accounts again had a net $53m so while a net $42.1m is good to see, it is $20m short of what was implied a couple of years ago.


    The 2018 annual report indicated full provisioning for the Canterbury earthquakes with a $5m additional risk margin. Again on page 44: "...and the remaining $5.0m is expected to be released once the Canterbury Outstanding Claims Liability has sufficiently run off."
    The Actual 2019 result included an additional net claims expense of $6.048m. This theoretically increased provisioning to 148% of likely expenses. Was this enough? No.
    The 2020 result included additional provisioning with amounts of $2.4m and $2.7m referenced in different places. At least the $5m risk margin still exists.

    But management then have the cheek to state "The Canterbury portfolio is performing in line with expectations in most areas. The after tax strengthening of $2.7m for FY20 represents the lowest annual increase since 2014".

    If it was performing inline with expectations, the 2020 P&L would have had no incremental expense, and part of the $5m risk margin being credited back increasing the surplus. As I write this I'm not surprised the share price declined with the result.

  3. #1223
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    So now it seems Tower's brilliant leadership team plans to use the excess funds to go shopping rather than returning it to shareholders. They raised the $47 odd million last year from shareholders to prop up their capital adequacy because the reserve bank wouldn't accept the (then) EQC receivable as part of their capital adequacy. Now they have finally go their hands on the EQC money (albeit somewhat diminished) they don't think that they are obliged to give it back to shareholders, instead they look around for some other way they can spend it - jeez, what a crew!
    Do they look at the share price performance and pat themselves on the back, telling themselves that their shareholders are happy with their strategy? What world do they live in.
    And don't get me started on the return of premiums re covid lockdown.
    These people don't need to be buying other insurance books, they need to be bought themselves and maybe then their long-suffering shareholders can be put out of their misery

  4. #1224
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poet View Post
    So now it seems Tower's brilliant leadership team plans to use the excess funds to go shopping rather than returning it to shareholders. They raised the $47 odd million last year from shareholders to prop up their capital adequacy because the reserve bank wouldn't accept the (then) EQC receivable as part of their capital adequacy. Now they have finally go their hands on the EQC money (albeit somewhat diminished) they don't think that they are obliged to give it back to shareholders, instead they look around for some other way they can spend it - jeez, what a crew!
    Do they look at the share price performance and pat themselves on the back, telling themselves that their shareholders are happy with their strategy? What world do they live in.
    And don't get me started on the return of premiums re covid lockdown.
    These people don't need to be buying other insurance books, they need to be bought themselves and maybe then their long-suffering shareholders can be put out of their misery
    Sounds like you a bit unhappy - why remain a shareholder if things are so bleak
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.” - Benjamin Graham

  5. #1225
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    Love the way they say underlying profit excluding large events increased 23% on the prior year to $34.7m,

    Tower like all insurers use the old its climate change trick when they talk about 'large events'

    They only getting their comeuppance - or whoever paying them back (penalising them) for the all the years insurance companies propped up the oil and mining industries by 'investing' their vast amount of premiums in such dirty industries

    Some might say karma
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.” - Benjamin Graham

  6. #1226
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    One thing that should not be underestimated - the successful transformation of the legacy IT systems (and the massive expenditure on this), is going to be very advantageous over the coming years.
    Tower have not only essentially completed the replacement and move, also migrated their own book plus another insurers book into this system in quick succession.
    These types of projects not only usually have a high failure rate, they often don't move anywhere near as quickly.

    Reaching a settlement with EQC, alongside the new agreement going forward for future events, will reduce the issues encountered with CHCH that are still ongoing.
    It is less than 100% sure, but as others have noted better than further years of litigation and uncertainty.

    I believe the idea behind excluding large events was to enable more reasonable year to year comparisons. This is based on the idea that large events don't happen with the same frequency or impact in every year. Not sure how true that is these days but it stands.

    The wording around the dividend resumption would have been better received if acquisitions wasn't mentioned. Understand the general market conditions wording makes sense.
    Dividend stream has been dry since 2016. Looking back prior to those days dividend stream was 6-10c per year so maintaining the cost control and bringing back even a part of that would reassure.
    I couldn't find a stated dividend policy?
    Regardless of how FY21 goes, this is more of a FY22 story if you have the patience.

    The covid premium refund is a tricky area. Insurers do offer discounts for low usage of vehicles, as this reduces risk. So this could be similar.
    Claims massively dropped for all the industry players.
    Insurance is an industry that operates under the idea of utmost good faith, so hopefully this gesture is seen well by customers in years to come.
    General insurance is a product that is very easy to switch and compare at the moment so goodwill is valuable.

  7. #1227
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    Antipodean said - I believe the idea behind excluding large events was to enable more reasonable year to year comparisons.

    I believe so

    Bit like casinos often ‘normalise’ profits by using expected returns from the high rollers.

    Some years the big guys beat the house and some years the house does well ...but casino provides a profit number that gives reasonable comparatives year by year

    Spose insurance is a bit like a casino ..place your byes and hooe for the best
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.” - Benjamin Graham

  8. #1228
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    But do they exclude the premium & investment income also - generated off years of covering
    Larger more extreme events - levied at presumably the appropriate costed risk rate ?

    It seems like more TWR Insurance gibberish & BS to cover their Asses IMO

    (ie: just a further bundle of Accounting Window dressing from the TWR Dividend shirkers)

    How many normal years would they have where there was only the likes of a heirem of TWR Insured Joe Bloggs's
    making claims for hitting their Letterboxes and like minor claims ?
    Last edited by nztx; 26-11-2020 at 02:09 PM.
    ... the fine art of sniffing out debits & credits hidden under the carpet can pay dividends ...

  9. #1229
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Love the way they say underlying profit excluding large events increased 23% on the prior year to $34.7m,

    Tower like all insurers use the old its climate change trick when they talk about 'large events'

    They only getting their comeuppance - or whoever paying them back (penalising them) for the all the years insurance companies propped up the oil and mining industries by 'investing' their vast amount of premiums in such dirty industries

    Some might say karma
    Nice story... but TWR invests in bonds and mostly government and bank bonds at that. From the HY report:

    Tower has a low risk tolerance and therefore the majority of its investments are in investment grade supranational and bank bonds.
    Insurers have done more than most in signalling the future costs and risks of climate change. Not least via their risk adjusted premiums on things like beachfront properties.

  10. #1230
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    Pleasing seeing the chairman brought 200,000 shares at 60 cents increasing his holding.
    Old saying says plenty of reasons directors sell shares, but only one reason they buy them.

  11. #1231
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    He potentially bought more today too Percy. The depth was extremely weak and yet someone just hit the ask for 100k+ shares. Looked more like someone trying to help the share price than get the best entry price!

  12. #1232
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Pleasing seeing the chairman brought 200,000 shares at 60 cents increasing his holding.
    Old saying says plenty of reasons directors sell shares, but only one reason they buy them.
    Certainly a positive sign compared to Directors selling up.

  13. #1233
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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyTheHorse View Post
    He potentially bought more today too Percy. The depth was extremely weak and yet someone just hit the ask for 100k+ shares. Looked more like someone trying to help the share price than get the best entry price!
    Looking back into the announcement history for Michael Stiassny:
    5Feb2014 - Initial disclosure of 82,335 shares
    2May2016 - Acquired 397 shares from estate
    7Dec2017 - Acquired 80,000 on-market @ 62.6c ave
    14Dec2017- Acquired 150,000 on-market @ 68.3c ave
    20Dec2017 - Took up 42c rights + 82,732 shares
    23Oct2019 - Took up 56c rights + 98,866 shares
    26Nov2020 - Acquired 200,000 on-market @ 60.0c ave

    Current new holding 694,330. This is the largest purchase to date, and also the first on-market purchase in over 3 years. I'd agree with JohnnyTheHorse that there's a good chance this wasn't just a 200k purchase but nearer 400k including the circa 200k bought at just before mid-day on the 30th. The on-going disclosure notice was filed at 3.17pm on the 30th.

    Also is that the 30day MA just crossing the 100day MA (directbroking chart)?

  14. #1234
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Pleasing seeing the chairman brought 200,000 shares at 60 cents increasing his holding.
    Old saying says plenty of reasons directors sell shares, but only one reason they buy them.
    A good price too, good for him!
    Last edited by Poet; 01-12-2020 at 07:08 AM.

  15. #1235
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    CEO and a Director have also taken reasonable sized positions post announcement. I'm still expecting a further update from yesterdays acquisition not covered by the disclosure notices so far.

    1 million share also just crossed at 61.

    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/364276

    Disc: trading position.
    Last edited by JohnnyTheHorse; 01-12-2020 at 11:32 AM.

  16. #1236
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poet View Post
    A good price too, good for him!


    Nice to see the CHAIR developing a taste for Non Dividend Paying Shares in his favourite company ..

    Hope he enjoy the investing experience ..
    Last edited by nztx; 01-12-2020 at 02:26 PM.
    ... the fine art of sniffing out debits & credits hidden under the carpet can pay dividends ...

  17. #1237
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    Huge volume crossing at ever higher prices...

  18. #1238
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    Just over $500 to insure you boat seems reasonable

    Another few mill to the bottom line ...cool

    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...421/336707.pdf
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.” - Benjamin Graham

  19. #1239
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    Bought a bolt-on already. A bit hard for us to know whether this is good or bad without disclosure of how much they paid.

    https://www.nzx.com/companies/TWR/announcements

  20. #1240
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poet View Post
    Bought a bolt-on already. A bit hard for us to know whether this is good or bad without disclosure of how much they paid.

    https://www.nzx.com/companies/TWR/announcements
    My reading was that the cost is some sort of ongoing referral fee to Club Marine. No cash upfront. Its unclear if this referral fee is one-off as customers sign up or ongoing like banks ongoing payments to mortgage brokers. Either way it should be factored into the pricing to make it profitable business for Tower.

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