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  1. #1441
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    Someone watching the rain radar?

  2. #1442
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/weeken...MCCDI33PUX6DE/

    Probably more ‘abnormal event’ claims to hit the insurance sector and Tower.

    Thing is, these abnormal events are normal and realistically, insurance companies have to keep cranking up premiums as high and as fast as they can to ‘weather’ these events.
    As long as it’s not as bad as the Timaru hail stones it’ll be all OK
    When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognizing euphoria itself.

  3. #1443
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    Id expect some claims but so far everything is holding together.
    Last edited by mike2020; 30-05-2021 at 08:37 AM.

  4. #1444
    Legend Balance's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike2020 View Post
    Now lets see if they can claw back that divie
    They will pay that dividend & the next one imo. There’s enough balance sheet capacity & underlying earnings to do so.

    Issue with Tower is the state of the insurance industry & the recurring ‘one-offs’ which many investors would now view as normal.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/wild-weather-hits-new-zealand-heavy-rain-flooding-fears-for-christchurch-canterbury/CE5ZG7CIANC6WBPJWBUEOC4O2Y/

    So Tower comes across as a company with volatile earnings & with the latest results, as a company with limited earnings growth potential.
    Last edited by Balance; 30-05-2021 at 08:56 AM.

  5. #1445
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Unfortunately, as per my previous post on this on 18 May, with the ever increasing effects of climate change extremely unusual weather events like the rain affecting Canterbury this weekend are going to be more and more frequent to the point where they become so regular they become normal. Not a good sector in my opinion.

    I can't take any credit for this insight as I was very fortunate to have a very loyal client who worked on contract for Metservice for over 50 years. Lovely old chap and the last time I saw him when he retired he told me, don't believe all this one in 100 year weather event nonsense. You'll get at least one, more often two of these so called one in one hundred year weather events every year. He went on and told me some other really scary stuff....basically the amount of methane now being released from ice sheet melting means we are on an irreversible road to catastrophic climate change irrespective of what we do with CO2 emissions. https://cage.uit.no/2021/04/28/metha...ng-ice-sheets/
    Last edited by Beagle; 30-05-2021 at 08:42 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.

  6. #1446
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Unfortunately, as per my previous post on this on 18 May, with the ever increasing effects of climate change extremely unusual weather events like the rain affecting Canterbury this weekend are going to be more and more frequent to the point where they become so regular they become normal. Not a good sector in my opinion.
    Then surely you got to worry about owning Turners selling dirty combustion cars, Genesis with its dirty coal plant/kupe and Heartland with all that dirty rural debt on its books

  7. #1447
    Legend Balance's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gerald View Post
    Then surely you got to worry about owning Turners selling dirty combustion cars, Genesis with its dirty coal plant/kupe and Heartland with all that dirty rural debt on its books
    It's different because Beagle does not own shares in Tower.
    Last edited by Balance; 31-05-2021 at 08:41 AM.

  8. #1448
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    If there were 20 distinct locations within the country, a 1 in 100 event should happen to the country every five years. There are multiple types of events that are individually described by there frequency, so you get back to an event every few years. Start considering 1:20 year events and a year without something should be the exception.

    Across the country seeing regular (but not super regular) infequent events shouldn't be a problem if Tower has done the underlying risk maths correctly. Some risks vary by location and Tower is at least some of the way towards higher premiums where there is a higher claim risk.

  9. #1449
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Tower said as it was experiencing higher call volumes than usual, due to the state of emergency in Ashburton, it was asking people from other areas with non-urgent inquiries to lodge their claims online through the My Tower app, or via its website.

    “We hope everyone is keeping safe. Make sure to take extra care on the roads or avoid driving if possible, and if water has entered your house, make sure to turn the power off,” it said in a Facebook post.



    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mon...for-some-weeks
    When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognizing euphoria itself.

  10. #1450
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    It's different because Beagle does not own shares in Tower.
    LOL you naughty dog.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.

  11. #1451
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Insurance companies made huge fortunes over the years ‘investing’ the premiums in oil / coal and other ‘evil’ companies which are to blame for climate change

    Now they bemoan more regular climate change induced big events etc etc and having to manage the risks around them.

    Certain irony ...but at the end of the day I suppose we all pay the penalty
    When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognizing euphoria itself.

  12. #1452
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Insurance companies made huge fortunes over the years ‘investing’ the premiums in oil / coal and other ‘evil’ companies which are to blame for climate change

    Now they bemoan more regular climate change induced big events etc etc and having to manage the risks around them.

    Certain irony ...but at the end of the day I suppose we all pay the penalty
    This is a good narrative but not a winning one when it comes to Tower. They mostly invest in government bonds.

  13. #1453
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaa View Post
    This is a good narrative but not a winning one when it comes to Tower. They mostly invest in government bonds.
    Do now but probably not in the good old days ...but then they were mainly a life company (and government controlled)

    My first interest in Tower came from when they mutualised around 1990 ....good when they demutualised though and they were listed on the NZX
    When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognizing euphoria itself.

  14. #1454
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    Am I the only one who thinks we should be provided with a claims update following the Canterbury floods?

  15. #1455
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    Quote Originally Posted by ronaldson View Post
    Am I the only one who thinks we should be provided with a claims update following the Canterbury floods?
    Claims are still being lodged, adjusters reporting, quotes being obtained and approved. It doesn't all get confirmed in a few days or even a week. Even with work underway invoices will be sent back to HO for payment and that adds a bit more time. Typically it's not worth reporting on claims under they are in (or close to) a finalised state to get an accurate understanding of costs.

    Flooding claims aren't nearly as costly as fire or other large events. Modern carpets are relatively easy and cheap to replace, and a lot of furniture and interiors can be dried out and salvaged with modern industrial blowers. We'll see in due time.

  16. #1456
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    Quote Originally Posted by Antipodean View Post
    Claims are still being lodged, adjusters reporting, quotes being obtained and approved. It doesn't all get confirmed in a few days or even a week. Even with work underway invoices will be sent back to HO for payment and that adds a bit more time. Typically it's not worth reporting on claims under they are in (or close to) a finalised state to get an accurate understanding of costs.

    Flooding claims aren't nearly as costly as fire or other large events. Modern carpets are relatively easy and cheap to replace, and a lot of furniture and interiors can be dried out and salvaged with modern industrial blowers. We'll see in due time.
    And, in any case, I don't think water got into very many houses. Most of the damage was land/fencing/public infrastructure (and a few vehicles from what I saw)

  17. #1457
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    Oh dear, just when things were looking bright, a second downgrade. Glad I cut my losses and sold out at first downgrade release. They sure have some bad luck on their side.

    GLTAH.

  18. #1458
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scrunch View Post
    I Some risks vary by location
    I've worked in the insurance industry and quite frankly, if I was an underwriter, I'd take the whole Sth Is. off my book.
    But it doesnt work like that ... scale is critical. I think Scrunch is right saying any one place may only experience a one in a hundred every hundred years but that still gives for a lot of disasters over all the possible locations. But yeh I know what we are all thinking about risk. Its riskier than we think!!
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  19. #1459
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    Looks like an average of around $20k per Canterbury rain event claim is anticipated ( combination of motor, contents and house policies - less any excess ) with perhaps a few more than the 164 currently lodged. Tower claim just over 9% of national general insurance policies in force, with a bias to motor. I wonder what proportion of claims for this event are held by Tower? Suggests around 2000 residential/motor insurance claims will be generated overall by this event across the industry. Of course much damage will be uninsured/uninsurable so losses much higher.

  20. #1460
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    "8% increase in claims cost due to building costs"
    https://www.pressreader.com/category/business/en/nz

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