TWR - Tower Insurance.

[ronaldson]

Maybe a reaction to the fact no announcement to the market yet regarding the impact of the Nelson floods in particular? And more serious rain now threatening the West Coast this week.

I thought the recent reporting that Tower is exiting PNG was a positive. A volatile and high-risk country in my opinion.

[Poet]

Maybe a reaction to the fact no announcement to the market yet regarding the impact of the Nelson floods in particular? And more serious rain now threatening the West Coast this week.

I thought the recent reporting that Tower is exiting PNG was a positive. A volatile and high-risk country in my opinion.

No announcement needed. tower has a max liability of $20m for large events - after that re-insurance kicks in, they have already reported around $18.9m large events at HY so, yes, they have probably now run over their large event cap. Still forecasting $21-$25 NPAT. So given a $250M market cap, no debt, $70 mill cash, what's not to love.

Insurance companies are ticket-clippers, not risk takers, so the more disasters and consequent claims, the more profitable they will be (over the long run,of course).

Little Miss Sunshine (aka bull****) is just pulling your chain

[bull....]

No announcement needed. tower has a max liability of $20m for large events - after that re-insurance kicks in, they have already reported around $18.9m large events at HY so, yes, they have probably now run over their large event cap. Still forecasting $21-$25 NPAT. So given a $250M market cap, no debt, $70 mill cash, what's not to love.

Insurance companies are ticket-clippers, not risk takers, so the more disasters and consequent claims, the more profitable they will be (over the long run,of course).

Little Miss Sunshine (aka bull****) is just pulling your chain

no im being quite serious looking at the chart very much looks like it wants to re test lows around 55 - 56c. fundamentally they must be on track for a reported loss with all these floods.
at least we are past cyclone season

[winner69]

Should be doing a lot better this year from returns on investing the premiums

[Antipodean]

TWR bought back 10% of shares this FY - this will be reflected in future.
NPAT from 21m - 25m most recently affirmed. On the lower # of shares and at .615 current sp this is eps of 5.5 - 6.6cps or PE 11.11 - 9.34. Div 60% - 80% NPAT means 6-8% yeild or 4-6 cps (previous 12m 5cps).
20m reinsurance and high inflation already assumed in outlook.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9d_Ejj1_q4 from about 40min for bit from TWR CEO.
More digital flows, lower cost to service, growing GWP.
Automated SI updates and risk pricing with integrated data to ensure the ticket clipped keeps up with large events.

NTA 52cps last reported... do you think business is worth more than 9.5cps? I do. Seems market is hesistant however.

[ronaldson]

I would have thought that, at the current share price, that Tower is a potential takeover target, especially with the ChCh earthquake claims now basically receding in the rear-view mirror. The IT platform alone seems to be industry leading. A cheap way to acquire a not insignificant number of policyholders and a bundle of cash too.

[trader_jackson]

apologies, please delete - wrong thread

[Poet]

Share price up close to 6% today on modest (but not insignificant) volume - currently 66.5c
Someone chasing it up?
Are we expecting an imminent update re Nelson flooding impact on profit (I expect no change to the $21-25m NPAT projection) and FY ends in 2.5 weeks, so projection should be pretty accurate.
Insurance rates up strongly across the industry should see next year profit increased all things being equal

[ronaldson]

Closed at 67c, up over 6% on the day. I find these quick re-rates in circumstances where there is no announcement/obvious news to trigger very interesting.

If the re-rate is on the downside, it is usually possibly to discern some macro or micro economic force that plausibly lies behind the move. But re-rates on the upside can be harder to understand the logic behind the somewhat abrupt change in sentiment.

[Antipodean]

6.3% upshot basically all in the afternoon. It's only a single days trading so you can't be certain of anything, but it is the most signicifant change in the last 6 months. It also follows two prior days of climbing. Depth dropping on the sell side and buy side lifting to close gaps is most unusual without an announcement.

Should be an interesting few weeks coming up. We got an updated guidance (downgrade) end of September last year, but the full year announcement isn't typically until November. Maybe an updated guidance (upgrade) is on the way? Or could it just be a few days of unusual market volatility.