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  1. #21
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    Gidday

    I was reading a Buffett quote the other day (I'm sure it was him) & when the pe & yield are both 7 it's load up time, apparently only happens about twice in a life time,Shades of Halleys Comet!

    I know we aren't USA & they mean yield has risen all the way up to 7%, while we wouldn't see anything strange about 7%, but this is a Buffett type business, Insurance.
    Rgds

  2. #22
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    Gidday B

    Cast your mind back 11 months... See the cut from May 08 below.

    GPG cashed out of MYOB, GPG have long coveted TWR, remember the demutualisation, Tyndall, James Boozanier etc...
    GPG have their capital notes cash just sitting there, The front page of the prospectus at the time had Ron saying something about having the cash sorted before the opportunities come up.


    Guinness Peat Group plc ("GPG") has advised that a wholly-owned subsidiary,
    GPG Twenty One Limited, intends to make a partial offer under the New Zealand
    Takeovers Code to purchase 15.30% of the ordinary shares in TOWER Limited
    ("TOWER") at a price of $2.30 per share. GPG currently controls, through a
    wholly-owned subsidiary, 19.70% of TOWER.

    The offer will provide TOWER shareholders an opportunity to sell their shares
    at a price that is a 11.1% premium to the last TOWER closing price and a
    16.3% premium to the 1 month volume weighted average price.

    GPG Executive Director Tony Gibbs said "from GPG's perspective, as a result
    of the spinoffs of Tower Australia Group Limited and Australian Wealth
    Management Limited, GPG's investment in TOWER had reduced considerably in
    size. The offer would give GPG the ability to invest more money in TOWER and
    increase the value of its investment back up to a more optimal investment
    size more consistent with other investments in its portfolio."
    Rgds

  3. #23
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    Sigh.... Those were the days.

    "The Board does not recommend that shareholders accept the offer at a price of
    NZ$2.30 per share.

    While the price represents a premium on recent trading history of TOWER
    shares, it does not fall within the valuation range of $2.45 - $2.89 provided
    by Grant Samuel to the Board."

  4. #24
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    Talking

    Quote Originally Posted by Sehnsucht888 View Post
    Sigh.... Those were the days.

    "The Board does not recommend that shareholders accept the offer at a price of
    NZ$2.30 per share.

    While the price represents a premium on recent trading history of TOWER
    shares, it does not fall within the valuation range of $2.45 - $2.89 provided
    by Grant Samuel to the Board."
    Grant Samuel's valuation is about as useful as mine.

  5. #25
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    Up nearly 20% since your post, Belgarion.
    Scamper topped up late March, and spent a month wishing i hadn't.
    but now, the chart is starting to look good: downtrend broken, sp above 30- and 90-day moving averages, stochastics, macd, and rsi getting positive.
    does anyone have access to obv?
    cheers.

  6. #26
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    and two more rises, with a current buyer at 166.
    Calling Phaedrus!
    1. Is it valid to look at the one-year downtrend and announce that it's over, or must one take the 2/3-year view and remain cautious?
    2. How does the obv look (and other indicators, come to that)?
    Thanks in advance, cheers, Scamper.

  7. #27
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    Yeah i bought this stock at 1.30 a few weeks ago - i wish Incredible Charts covered the NZX so i could have a play with the charts. I'm guessing OBV has exploded of late given the high volumes i've just been casually observing on ASB Securities day to day.

  8. #28
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    Default TWR Chart.

    Hi Scamper, my guess is that if you had access to an OBV plot, you wouldn't be wondering about other indicators or indeed, the "official" trend! An OBV reversal such as this is impossible to miss - or misinterpret.



    Technically, TWR is still in a long-term downtrend, but within the context of its great volatility, that really doesn't mean much. What we have had is a Price/volume climax, but atypically this was spread out over several weeks. I can't see that anyone would have acted on the trendline break marked with the small green arrow - the OBV was clearly falling at that time, even though this was before its big plunge. See how the OBV gave plenty of early warning, rocketing up in a very clear Buy signal weeks before the price started to move. A textbook example of Volume preceding price.

  9. #29
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    Thanks for your input Phaedrus........I learn something every time!


    Quote Originally Posted by Lego_Man View Post
    Yeah i bought this stock at 1.30 a few weeks ago - i wish Incredible Charts covered the NZX so i could have a play with the charts. I'm guessing OBV has exploded of late given the high volumes i've just been casually observing on ASB Securities day to day.
    You can import NZX data from Yahoo into Incredible charts....

  10. #30
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    Can you even do that in the trial version? I cant figure it out...

  11. #31
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    I only bought them because i liked the tv ad

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lego_Man View Post
    Can you even do that in the trial version? I cant figure it out...
    Yes you can, I can't open the software atm but from memory it is listed under securities....data from yahoo (or similar)!

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lego_Man View Post
    Can you even do that in the trial version? I cant figure it out...
    Yes

    Lego_Man I'm assuming you have already downloaded and set up (registered) your free program.

    When you open up your incredible charts pro program from your desktop icon... your ID page pops up .. click the tick button.... a chart then appears.

    In the box situated about 70mm down on the left hand, type in the NZ security you choose.

    example

    Tower ...type in y_TWR.nz
    Telecom ........y_TEL.nz

  14. #34
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    Thanks for that!

    Now to analyse my brother's GPG buy...

  15. #35
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    To use Incrediblecharts click securities > load by symbol from Yahoo > type in symbol.NZ > load & your good to go.
    chippy52

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by ratkin View Post
    I only bought them because i liked the tv ad
    I totally agree Ratkin that we should base our decisions on familiarity and solid research. I'm thinking that my next holiday will be in Brazil because Gisele Bundchen is totally hot. Less senior members would do well to heed the wisdom that we bring to these threads

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by corporateraider View Post
    Gisele Bundchen is totally hot. Less senior members would do well to heed the wisdom that we bring to these threads
    Gisele Bundchen? Who he?

    I did some research and came to the conclusion that your wisdom is paired with taste, discernment and an understandable penchant for Brazilians!

  18. #38
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    The 14 day RSI on TWR reads 80 (overbought).

    What say ye technical wizards?

  19. #39
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    As always Phaedrus your research is better than mine!

  20. #40
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    An RSI of anything over 70 means that technically, the stock is overbought. When the RSI drops back down through this level it generates a SELL signal. BUT when stocks are in an Uptrend they will repeatedly move in and out of OverBought territory as the uptrend progresses. This generates a string of misleading "Sell" signals. They do identify good "short-term" exit points, though, if that is what you are looking for.

    The chart below covers a halcyon period in TWR's history when it was in a nice steady Uptrend. See how the RSI was often "OverBought" but that in the scheme of things this meant very little. You wouldn't have wanted to have acted on any of those "Sell" signals, right?

    Trend indicators are what is required to monitor trends. Oscillators are at their most useful with ranging stocks. Similarly, trend indicators are not good with ranging stocks, generating a string of misleading and contradictory signals.

    This is a very brief and simplistic overview of the RSI indicator. There is a lot more info on the net if you Google RSI.

    Last edited by Phaedrus; 03-06-2009 at 10:54 AM. Reason: SELL signal not a buy signal!!! Why didn't anyone say?

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