TWR - Tower Insurance.

[Rawz]

I would like to see some directors buying at these levels. Especially post update and AGM.

Marcus Nagel holds 62 shares (yes 62 is not a typo)
Geraldine McBride holds 5,477
Michael Cutter (voted onto the board at the AGM) holds 34,726 shares which were purchased in Dec last year.

These three need to show the market how cheap the TWR shares are and take their holding over 100k shares a piece imo.

Other directors Graham Stuart holds 202,500 shares and king Michael Stiassny holds 624,897.

He with Todd turned TRA around and now it is part of the NZ50.
If Stiassny can lead TWR down a similar path of TRA us shareholders are in for some juicy dividends and cap gains.

[ronaldson]

I agree Rawz. And under several hats I hold many indirectly. There is a risk thou with being a large holder in TWR that there is a "super large event" without any warning that effectively may destroy your equity.

Catastrophes are improbable with other listed entities and if they occur the expectaton is that there will be some lead time to act. Covid is a classic example (and remember the pandemic could theoretically have manifested much worse/more deadly ) where there was time for the astute to react in the market before impact. A natural hazard occurence may simply be too swift for that.

[Southern Lad]

And no income tax liability until 26/27 according to the CFO.

Tower has recognised a deferred tax asset of $29.4m for the value of tax losses as at 30 September 2023 (so if were all in NZ, this would be $105m gross tax losses).

While Tower is saying they won't pay tax to IRD in cash until 2026/27, they will still have tax expense in the P&L if they make a profit in the interim period as they whittle down the amount of the already recognised deferred tax asset.

Rather than shareholders looking forward to an improved after tax dividend return once Tower can attach imputation credits (from 2026/27), because they will have to fund the cash cost of the tax, all things being equal the amount Tower can afford as a cash dividend will reduce due to cash tax cost that will also need to be funded.

[Panda-NZ-]

​Relevant:

Incoming government warned about major earthquake/natural disaster risks to NZ.

The briefing noted a 2018 analysis that ranked New Zealand second highest in the world for financial exposure to natural hazards.

Regarding earthquakes, the briefing said there was a 25 per cent change of “a major Hikurangi Subduction Zone earthquake event occurring in the next 50 years.“Indicative national impacts of a major Hikurangi earthquake and tsunami include tens of thousands of people dead, injured or displaced from their homes, and significant damage to the built environment (in excess of $144 billion).”

The Hikurangi zone, located off the east coast of the North Island, is “potentially the largest source of earthquake and tsunami hazard in New Zealand”, according to GNS, which is doing a five-year research project on the zone.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politi...H7X7F3QC2D25I/

[nztx]

​Relevant:

Incoming government warned about major earthquake/natural disaster risks to NZ.



https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politi...H7X7F3QC2D25I/

the same issues & risks the outgoing clueless lot knew about but did as close as possible to *Nothing* about in 6 years ?

[Antipodean]

​Relevant:

Relevent to Tower, sure. But not to the extent that has been emphasised with the bolding added in your quote.

Firstly, loss of life is tragic but not financially impacting a non life insurer such as Tower.

Second, $144 billion sounds like a lot but for starter that is not restricted to one insurance company who have ~10% market share.
Following that it is good to note:

A) On the East Coast much (perhaps even most?) of that will be public infrastructure damage.
B) Any land damage is soley covered by EQC
C) Any remaining private insured dwellings are initially covered by EQC for the first $345,000 of rebuild cost
D) The difference between C) and the total rebuild cost of the home is limited by the sum insured on the policy, which Tower has on books and in aggregate across regions
E) Tower have catastrophe cover via reinsurance treaties specifically for this type of event

[nztx]

Canterbury getting a few of these lately:


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/magnit...OAV5VS4JAZP6Q/

A 5.1 magnitude earthquake has struck Canterbury tonight, with more than 4600 people reporting the sharp jolt.

The 9.21pm quake was centred near the small township of Methven, about 100km west of Christchurch City, at a depth of 5km.

Magnitude 5.1 earthquake strikes Canterbury region near Methven, felt by more than 4600 people including Christchurch residents

[Rawz]

Weather was kind this week

Guidance is NPAT of $27m.

Big provision of $45m not used.
Last year $12m was used by this time.

Each week that goes by on a pro-rata basis $45m/52weeks= $865k gets added to the guidance? (Yes i know a major event could hit in the last month and eat up the $45m).

Basically depending on how much of the provision is used we are trading on a p/e of 3.80 to 10.
A worst case scenario P/E of 10?? Come on... thats crazy cheap

Its time for TWR to shine;

- Peak interest rates adding to investment income.
- Investment in the back office done and paid for.
- Cost to income ratios forecast to fall
- Goldman sachs set the task to find a potential buyer
- Guru Chairman Michael Stiassny is going to do a TRA on TWR and make himself a load more money (and the rest of us shareholders)

This is TWRs year.

[ronaldson]

According to me a 1c per share dividend requires $3,794,840. Of course currently holders would have 33c in the $ deducted from any payout as RWT.

So it's plausible, based upon the NPAT projection, that the Board in FY24 could authorise, say, 2.5c interim dividend and 2.5c final dividend in due course, returning to a previous payout level. That would be a decent gross yeild at present pricing. That would represent a payout around $19m all up, including the IRD's share.

A higher NPAT, especially if the "large events" allowance is significantly underutilised, could mean a more generous outcome. So Rawz may be on point!

[Sgt Pepper]

I have checked Towers historical share price range going back 10+ years and its current $0.72 is an aberration. It peaked at $6.50 and was for a long time in the range of $2.00 to $2.50. With present forecast what would be a realistic share price??