TWR - Tower Insurance.

[Rawz]

I’ve been thinking about rates dropping and interest income dropping over the next 2 years. I can only assume the FY25 profit range of $40m-$60m and FY26 profit range of $60m-$80m factors in rates dropping. And this is part of the reason why the spread is so large?

I don’t suppose anyone has seen a broker report that has run the scenarios?

[Leemsip]

Hopefully they are locking the huge pile of cash into a nice ladder of deposits and bonds which maximises revenue over many years while still letting them pull it out in case of emergency, while still operating nimbly within all the insurance regulations.

It is TWR though, so probably all sitting in the cheque account or 1 month rollers.

[Lego_Man]

Hopefully they are locking the huge pile of cash into a nice ladder of deposits and bonds which maximises revenue over many years while still letting them pull it out in case of emergency, while still operating nimbly within all the insurance regulations.

It is TWR though, so probably all sitting in the cheque account or 1 month rollers.

As far as i'm aware, Nikko Funds Management are managing it for them in a <1 year duration high grade bond portfolio.

[Sgt Pepper]

I am somewhat surprised TWR share price has not gained more traction at this stage, or am I being impatient??

[ronaldson]

I am somewhat surprised TWR share price has not gained more traction at this stage, or am I being impatient??

"Impatient" gets my vote. The announcement earlier this month, even though at least partially provisioned for, has been yet another reality check.

I don't anticipate any meaningful adjustment to the share price until the half year results announcement in May. A positive though is that media reporting hasn't identified anything currently that would seem to make more than a very minor inroad into the FY24 "large events" allowance.

[bull....]

"Impatient" gets my vote. The announcement earlier this month, even though at least partially provisioned for, has been yet another reality check.

I don't anticipate any meaningful adjustment to the share price until the half year results announcement in May. A positive though is that media reporting hasn't identified anything currently that would seem to make more than a very minor inroad into the FY24 "large events" allowance.

I agree. should be a very good half yr announcement as long as disasters dont happen.

[Lego_Man]

I'm expecting a slow wake up as this stock has been a disappointment for fund managers for a very long time. It will need to start spewing out good dividends for at least a good half year before the price really catches up. I would be happy with 90c by Christmas.

[Rawz]

Picture a chart of a Turkey being fattened up for Christmas.
It starts in the bottom left hand corner on 1st January.Each day you feed the turkey, and it puts on weight,and each day you mark on your chart,and the chart starts heading for the top right hand corner.Looks fantastic.But then on the 13th December you chop off the turkeys head.Chart drops to Zero.Insurance companies are the same.Fat profits until a huge underwriting disasterous loss cuts off their head.!
Read the history of Lloyds.

Haha this is a good post from 6 years ago. (I’m just reading the thread learning more about TWRs history which is quite interesting)

I reckon we are in January right now. Remind me to sell the turkey before the head gets cut off in December- this should be FY26

[ronaldson]

Hey Rawz - HY24 now done and dusted.

I wonder how much of the "large events" allowance has had to be expensed? Very little by my reckoning, and hence the results announcement should be very positive, notwithstanding the multi policy discount refunds issue (which must surely be 95% dealt with now) and related FMA court action.

An optimist might even think a resumption of dividend is probable!

[Leemsip]

Buyback FFS. chuck $40m at it