TWR - Tower Insurance.

**_Michael** · 28-10-2011, 07:41 AM

Originally Posted by RRR

GPG's intention to sell its stake (35% - that is huge) is what concerns me the most as a retail investor. It is and will be a forced sale and hence they will have to sell at a discount - they sold TUA at a discounted price! Tower buying back 15-16% of GPG stake with their cash surplus (?) would be nice - just hoping.

That makes perfect sense RRR. You are right.
Figure they are holding onto cash in case they succeed in bidding for AMI.
Although get the feeling one of the Aussies might come out in the lead on that one. (A certain Aussie insurer that is raising capital on the NZ debt market for example...)

**whirly** · 09-11-2011, 01:57 PM

Tough to call at the moment Belgarion. Previous resistance at 150 might now become support but long term TWR is in a 10 month downtrend and needs to breakthru 157-160 to end that and if it fails to move through this point the downtrend will remain intact. Volume hasn't been that high and I think "managing risk" are the keywords at the moment.

I am no TA expert by any means so welcome others opinions. I also just use free version of Inc. Charts so the red line is yesterday and today's action.

I could have added all sorts of other indicators but I don't see the need at the moment.

W.

Attachment 3687

**Hoop** · 10-11-2011, 10:38 AM

Originally Posted by belgarion

Big jumps in sp. Any TA experts got a view as to whether this likely to be sustained. I've been buying the recent dip and was thinking about booking some profits (managing risk is the term I'd use if the IRD was asking) before the AR which will be oaky but not spectactular.

Hi Belg,

My last chart showing a TA break warning turned out to be a bear trap and in hindsight an excellent (but against the odds) bottom buy...oh well missed that opportunity... dems the breaks.

The sp tested and respected the primary downtrend line yesterday. ...Notice how it is hugging the top Bollinger band (purple)...a short term event unless a rare prolonged sharp upturn trend occurs..... this + continued respect of the MA200 (not on chart)/ primary trend line may result in a slipping back ( a common pullback event...chartwise) into the middle of the bands (purple) to test the 1.50 support or numerous mini supports in the 1.40-1.50 range. However expect another assault at the primary trendline soon if the TA indicators stay positive.... . Long term investor buy signals haven't fired yet but are close, the Primary downtrend line is around 1.57 and MA200 at 1.58.

The only scarey thing about this chart is the sp is in gap territory...a two edge sword...but so far things look positive although as Whirly points TWR is still in a long term downtrend....but this primary bear downtrend is under threat.

Edit: ...I've just noticed a short/medium-term support/resistance at 1.55 (not drawn in on the chart)

**Lizard** · 26-11-2011, 09:17 AM

Hi Belg,

I keep meaning to have a look through Tower and Suncorp on the same sort of logic. Whoever grabs AMI probably gets a good share of market too. With the huge increases we've seen in premiums (and more to come), there has to be some profit in there somewhere...

**iceman** · 09-12-2011, 07:38 AM

NZ Herald reporting today that Tower, Suncorp, IAG and Berkshire Hathaway are on the shortlist to buy AMI with a decision expected within a month. This is becoming increasingly interesting with Buffett as a contender !

**Hoop** · 09-12-2011, 12:16 PM

Update from 10th Nov post #276
A month ago TWR was threatening a break out...........but ...... a day after I wrote up that chart it turned to custard...it respected the down trendline + MA200 at $1.55 - 1.57 area ,,, sell signals appeared and the price went back down briefly to retest and respect its 135 support...now TWR seems to be going back up again..................overall result a 135 - 155 trading range formation has developed.

With some interest being focused on insurance companies regarding the extra monies from increased premiums but no unusual movements in the shareprice......a deeper analysis sees the OBV and other accumulation/distrubution TA indicators sensing a slow accumulation however not great enough to effect an increase in share price...This small divergence activity is enough for me to stick TWR on my watchlist...However TWR seems very prone to Global market shifts atm ,,, the bad night on Wall St has dropped the price to $1.41 down 2 today as I write.

Notice that there is another factor coming into play.... the down trendline is entering the trading range area, this may or may not exert some sort of downward pressure on the price ....it is very possible though that the price could break the down trendline but stay within its trading range (status quo).
The Bollinger bands squeezed last friday with a minimal or no trend change which is a bit unusual...maybe too early to tell yet.

**macduffy** · 09-12-2011, 01:24 PM

Originally Posted by iceman

NZ Herald reporting today that Tower, Suncorp, IAG and Berkshire Hathaway are on the shortlist to buy AMI with a decision expected within a month. This is becoming increasingly interesting with Buffett as a contender !

Just to muddy the waters even further there was an article in the AFR a few days ago that a rumour was circulating that Wesfarmers was considering making a takeover for IAG to bolster its insurance business. Apparently this is not the first time that this has been around but the AFR described the rumour as "an oldie but a goody".

No direct relevance to TWR or AMI of course but it wouldn't take a great leap of imagination to see WES looking to expand their already significant interest in NZ.

**percy** · 09-12-2011, 01:30 PM

Originally Posted by Hoop

Update from 10th Nov post #276
A month ago TWR was threatening a break out...........but ...... a day after I wrote up that chart it turned to custard...it respected the down trendline + MA200 at $1.55 - 1.57 area ,,, sell signals appeared and the price went back down briefly to retest and respect its 135 support...now TWR seems to be going back up again..................overall result a 135 - 155 trading range formation has developed.

With some interest being focused on insurance companies regarding the extra monies from increased premiums but no unusual movements in the shareprice......a deeper analysis sees the OBV and other accumulation/distrubution TA indicators sensing a slow accumulation however not great enough to effect an increase in share price...This small divergence activity is enough for me to stick TWR on my watchlist...However TWR seems very prone to Global market shifts atm ,,, the bad night on Wall St has dropped the price to $1.41 down 2 today as I write.

Notice that there is another factor coming into play.... the down trendline is entering the trading range area, this may or may not exert some sort of downward pressure on the price ....it is very possible though that the price could break the down trendline but stay within its trading range (status quo).
The Bollinger bands squeezed last friday with a minimal or no trend change which is a bit unusual...maybe too early to tell yet.

Thanks Hoop,
I too have TWR on watch list,so have found your chart and comments timely.