TWR - Tower Insurance.

[macduffy]

I appreciate that but this was already reasonably well known over the last - what, 6 weeks maybe 3 months?

Yes, and TWR was trading around $1.30 in late October/early November before making a recovery - of sorts. Market sentiment ebbs and flows of course and QBE's recent downgrade announcement has caused the current "ebb" - will TWR be similarly affected? At least, that's my reading of the situation.

[winner69]

Sounds like GPG throwing their weight around and telling a director not to worry about coming into the office on Monday

Good stuff .... shareholders getting involved ... but in thsi case I'd say it will all end up in tears for the other shareholders .... so are GPG the bad boys?

Mind you with the NAV of TWR sinking the quicker they can get rid of their interest the better

[The BOWMAN]

I noticed that there was a huge volume of TWR being traded on Friday. Not quite sure if it is incorrect data being shown or some insider traiding is taking shape. Has anyone else noticed it?

[_Michael]

I noticed that there was a huge volume of TWR being traded on Friday. Not quite sure if it is incorrect data being shown or some insider traiding is taking shape. Has anyone else noticed it?

Yeah also noticed the volume and price moving steadily upwards on no news.

Looks to me like a takeover bid must me coming together. Any bets as to when and how much?

I would say maybe late this month @ $2.00

[Balance]

Capital return on the way?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10784181

[Hoop]

Tower broke out of it's trading range late last week and smart money came in.

The fasinating thing about TWR is its strong historical respect to it's Support and Resistance (S&R) levels which gives some comfort to investors when it comes to enter and exit.
So...with this S&R history, it comes with no surprise that eventually a trading range formation would happen.

This trading range is called a completed Rectangle bottom formation which after a break out has only average predictability depending on many variables. In TWR's case a gap breakout increases the chance to reach its target price of 1.75 to 85%..however the pre-formation spike is a negative and lowers that 85% chance, and especially that 1.65 historic resistance level (my biggest worry) but the NZX index being in a cyclic bull market increases that chance up again .....so conservatively a chance of 65-70+% to reach 1.75. (****Bulkowski 85% chance to reach 1.72 for basic KISS method)
Pull backs occur 53% of the time so there's a slightly better than even chance that on its way to meet its 1.75 investor target price**** the price will fail the first time to breach 1.65 resistance and fall back (pull back) to test its new 1.55 support...this gives the late (tardy) TA investor (me!!) a second chance (53%) to enter.
Thats the chart formation theory side of things....now we still and wait for the practical side to play out .

Note that the investor target price 1.75 is just a mathematical thing usually a 70+% chance of reaching that area for rectangles in a bull market... sometimes there is no resistance (slight resistance in TWR's case) in that area so it should not be seen as a magical barrier....often it keeps going up past the target price.... or 30% of the time it won't make it.

**** 1.72 target price using BUlkowski's latest formula ...(see Bulkowski's the pattern site)

[Halebop]

my recent computershare registry notice shows it took 38 seperate trades (many of only 1 share) to complete the sale of my 5000 tower shares. This all took place in the one day. Is this a board broker or is there another answer.

Not a bored broker but instead probably a computer programmer - Algorithmic trading.

[Hoop]

Something is up ... looks like distribution ... but no SSH notices as yet ... Any guesses?

Hi Belg
From the chart below
Even though there's a loss of momentum pulling the price back down, it seems to be still a slight increase in accumulation...not distribution. (see the blue !! )

The chart is an update from a month ago it's a little messier due to the inclusion of the purple Bollinger bands and its related MA20 line. I've temporarily added these bands as they are narrowing indicating either a change in the rate of trend or change in the trend itself....atm it is in a short term downtrend.

Overall the TWR chart is TA healthy The target price 1.75 arrived early and now TWR is taking a breather (target sellers??).
The TWR price has to fall below 1.55 to start any worries...

[Hoop]

Something's definitely up!

No significant volumes since the bootom in 2009 and now big volumes going through in the last few months.

GPG action? Market leaking? All and any views appreciated.

This seems to be a worry time Belg.
Normally with larger than normal volume it's usually a rush to get in (accumulation) or a rush to get out (distribution).
My charts have three accum/dist indicators A/D OBV and Twiggs MF all of similar makeup thus all showing neutral to slight distribution.
Large volume with near equal number of buyers to sellers ....Hmmmm strange

TA wise TWR has reached a critical conjunction area...All the ducks have lined up around that 1.65 area.
Some sell signals have appeared a small period event formation (sys triangle) breakout downwards near its apex adds to the uncertain sell signals.

Belg ...looking to jump in with that volume increase/ at a critical conjunction/indecisive investor behaviour atm.. may not be the wisest of moves ..... a gamble similar to a toss of a coin...eh?.....
...unless we can find out who's doing the buying and selling...somtimes abnormal buying/selling strategies can warp TA signals especially with illiquid stocks.

[Snow Leopard]

Something's definitely up!

No significant volumes since the bootom in 2009 and now big volumes going through in the last few months.

GPG action? Market leaking? All and any views appreciated.

TTTSSS or Tiger Technical Trading Share Scanning System declared this a Buy on the 5-Mar-2012 but is currently waving Yellow flags around and deeming TWR as Hold - Weak.

Below $1.60 would take it to Really Worrying and above $1.75 to Sleep Easily.

Having said all that I do not currently own TWR and there may be bugs in my software

Best wishes
Paper Tiger