TWR - Tower Insurance.

[Grunter]

Lots of rumours around ... however - rumours might often be vicious, but they are rarely based on facts. Are yours?

Related to the adjustments: not sure I understand your remarks re "using time and distance to reduce costs" but in terms of underestimating the size of the damage do I not think that Tower was the only entity getting it wrong. Actually - lets face it - nobody (neither state nor City nor any insurer including EQC) got it right fathoming the size of the damage in the first place ... so why outing Tower for underestimating the damage as well?

Refer to Winner's article.

And Tower are by no means the only Insurer in this situation - What drove Buffet buying into IAG in 2014? Reinsurance.

[Arbroath]

I have purchased at $1.30 so let's see who is right in 12 months....only hindsight will tell us.

not looking good, bad management glad im out as those Canterbury earthquake claims to settle good bring the company down. investment income will keep declining as well industry headwind so will profit cover the claims or any other event? risky as

[bull....]

I have purchased at $1.30 so let's see who is right in 12 months....only hindsight will tell us.

good luck to you. big fundees selling, big fundees buying guess everyone has a different opinion on this so time will tell indeed

[winner69]

I have purchased at $1.30 so let's see who is right in 12 months....only hindsight will tell us.

You'll probably be 'right' if they continue to be miserable to their chch clients .....and make money for shareholders in the process

Some things my conscience won't let me touch

[Jaa]

Tower along with all insurors as well as EQC/Gvt should all be ashamed of themselves

But they wont because that's how disaster capitalism works

Bastards

http://www.interest.co.nz/insurance/...ing-canterbury

Tower had settled 96% of claims as at 31 March and have led the industry in claims settlement every year since the quakes.

The remaining cases are as likely to be decided in favor of Tower as for the homeowners.

You are barking up the wrong tree Winner69.

[BlackPeter]

Hmm - just follow the big money:

AMP - selling: https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/239744.pdf
Devon - selling: https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/239652.pdf

however:

SALT: buying: https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/239714.pdf

Confusing ... begs the question - which of the funds have the better analysts ... or is this a clear 2/3 majority?

[Adam H]

How much do you guys think the recent announcement of higher than expected claims will affect the SP in the near term? Tried to 'pick the bottom' of TWR at 1.80, was thinking of cutting my losses at ~1.37 for last couple of weeks, SP is now close to 1.10! Well at least my loss in capital is helping people who were affected by the earthquakes

[BlackPeter]

Hard to say. What their announcement basically says is that the additional provision for the Canterbury earthquakes is similarly sized than what analysts expected them to earn this year.

On the other hand ... it is unclear how much of this money they will need to spend this year (these things take time), and obviously - a provision is not yet the money spent.

At this stage the market is clearly in panic mode (and this is normally not the right time to sell). It might pay to wait until the storm is over and review than whether you believe that this was the last bad news from this company (in this case it might pay to hold) or whether you've lost your confidence in management (in this case it might pay to cut losses and leave).

BTW - not sure, how the money you (and I) lost in Tower would benefit people affected by the earthquakes. It only helped the people who sold out earlier (and at a better price) ... to both of us.

Discl: holding .... lucky me just a small parcel

[winner69]

How much do you guys think the recent announcement of higher than expected claims will affect the SP in the near term? Tried to 'pick the bottom' of TWR at 1.80, was thinking of cutting my losses at ~1.37 for last couple of weeks, SP is now close to 1.10! Well at least my loss in capital is helping people who were affected by the earthquakes

Where it all ends up possibly depends on how more times they need to 'increase' this provision

Doubt whether his is the last time

[Adam H]

TWR was only ~6 % of my portfolio when i bought at 1.80. It is barely 3% now so i am not too worried, and am definitely not selling at these levels.

Giving money to people who suffered in the earthquake makes me feel good about losing money so i will continue to believe that that is where my lost capital has gone :-) Definitely makes me feel better than losing it to more savvy investors!