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  1. #621
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/d...to-7-2-mlnhtml

    Not that much

    How this affects 'expectations' no idea - but surely they plan / forecast / expect some disasters every year so this impact should not be a surprise .......only if they have see more disasters than normal
    Last edited by winner69; 15-11-2016 at 08:37 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #622
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sgt Pepper View Post
    Indeed. Is Tower in a death spiral or are we approaching irresistible take over price??
    The former.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  3. #623
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/d...to-7-2-mlnhtml

    Not that much

    How this affects 'expectations' no idea - but surely they plan / forecast / expect some disasters every year so this impact should not be a surprise .......only if they have see more disasters than normal
    "The company's reinsurance programme provides more than $700 million of cover for these types of events once the excess of $10 million has been passed, which Tower says leaves the maximum possible impact of $7.2 million after tax. "

    That is of course assuming it doesn't go past $700million. Which seems very unlikely but with these things, you dont really know - the CHCH overall costs were $45b and Key was saying they could get up there close to that. It also will inevitably mean Towers reinsurance costs will rise again not to mention all the additional costs to serve which will surely also hit the bottom line, just further down the track.

    As an aside 700m also seems a small amount if for example a proper one ever did hit the Wellington CBD. That would be wiped out pretty quick as would this company I would imagine. I have my home insured with Tower, when it comes up, I think I might look at moving it to safer ground/backing (assuming all else is equal)
    Last edited by JAX; 15-11-2016 at 08:46 AM.

  4. #624
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JAX View Post
    "The company's reinsurance programme provides more than $700 million of cover for these types of events once the excess of $10 million has been passed, which Tower says leaves the maximum possible impact of $7.2 million after tax. "

    That is of course assuming it doesn't go past $700million. Which seems very unlikely but with these things, you dont really know - the CHCH overall costs were $45b and Key was saying they could get up there close to that. It also will inevitably mean Towers reinsurance costs will rise again not to mention all the additional costs to serve which will surely also hit the bottom line, just further down the track.

    As an aside 700m also seems a small amount if for example a proper one ever did hit the Wellington CBD. That would be wiped out pretty quick as would this company I would imagine. I have my home insured with Tower, when it comes up, I think I might look at moving it to safer ground/backing (assuming all else is equal)
    Hope they not involved with those (newish) buildings down on the Wellington waterfront - apparently one is a write off with collapsed floors and others looking a bit dodgy.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #625
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    Another all time historical low !! If the FY announcement on Tuesday is negative God bless TWR shareholders.

  6. #626
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim View Post
    Another all time historical low !! If the FY announcement on Tuesday is negative God bless TWR shareholders.
    I keep thinking that Tower is at such a low price that it must be a good buy.....but then again I've been thinking that since it was $1.20. thank goodness I resisted my urges!

  7. #627
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    So we might have New Tower and RunOff Co

    Successfully ring fence Canterbury claims and punters will be more interested in buying the rest. There's hope for you long suffering shareholders yet.
    Last edited by winner69; 29-11-2016 at 07:42 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #628
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    So we might have New Tower and RunOff Co

    Successfully ring fence Canterbury claims and punters will be more interested in buying the rest. There's hope for you long suffering shareholders yet.
    Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic ? Surely its not that hard to understand that there's a whole new chapter of claims coming from the most recent earthquakes ?
    What do they do in three years time, ring-fence that off as well ? Why anyone would want to be invested in this industry at the moment is beyond me, go figure ?
    Last edited by Beagle; 29-11-2016 at 08:30 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  9. #629
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic ? Surely its not that hard to understand that there's a whole new chapter of claims coming from the most recent earthquakes ?
    What do they do in three years time, ring-fence that off as well ? Why anyone would want to be invested in this industry at the moment is beyond me, go figure ?
    Roger - that misses the point that Tower now has c. $700m of reinsurance cover v the c. $350m of cover it was carrying at the time of the Christchurch earthquakes. A New Tower may be quite effective in illustrating that the underlying business can generate $20-25m NPAT and be worth c. $200m on its own. The issue will be how they fund the capital structure as there is no free lunch around Runoff Co which needs to have adequate capital funding to fulfil its liabilities. I suspect a rights issue to capitalise New Tower is in the offing but I for one would support it. Total business is being valued at $125m at the moment and underlying value once the dust settles is likely $200-250m across New Tower and Runoff Co (+ contributed new capital).

    New Tower would also quickly become a takeover target as its a clean business.
    Last edited by Arbroath; 29-11-2016 at 08:55 AM.

  10. #630
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    is the capital raising for runoff or new tower? so big dilution coming? not much money left in the kitty
    one step ahead of the herd

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