TWR - Tower Insurance.

[Filthy]

Hopefully we get a positive update on the EQC payout

Or just any sort of update...... even if its an update to say its still alive and progressing...... I suspect most of the market either doesn't know about it, forgotten it and/or is currently pricing the SP like it as a 0% chance of ever settling....

[winner69]

Half year results out in Oct. I expect another $14m post tax profit for the half taking the full year to around $30m (H1 NPAT was $15m). There will be some movement from Canty provisions, COVID premium givebacks, major disaster costs etc but I think $14m for H2 is a good ballpark.

Total company value is $240m so P/E on this is 8. Also growing gross premiums at 10% per year.

Hopefully we get a positive update on the EQC payout as this is the only thing stopping a dividend payout and a significant re-rate of this share.

Im getting tired of hearing myself say all of this year after year and not seeing it actually happen.

Probably a message in that statement bolded eh

[Marilyn Munroe]

Well I'm out. I expected the benign underwriting environment would result in a rerating of this share.

Knowing my luck sods law will apply and the share price will increase.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Southern Lad]

TWR starting to look pretty cheap. Hopeful of divi likely to be restarted. Opened small position

See commentary below suggesting that the RBNZ is continuing with its stance that insurers are likely to be required to hold more capital and that until details are announced that the RBNZ would prefer that insurers don't pay dividends.

https://www.interest.co.nz/insurance...ajor-insurance

To be fair, this is the same message TWR gave in its half year results presentation. So prospects of a dividend anytime soon not that positive. Possibility also of a further capital raise also on the cards unless dispute over EQC receivable can be resold favorably and quickly.

[Leemsip]

All hinges on the EQC payout

I calced this last year. Tower should be well up to 180% solvency ratio by now.

	Tower	IAG
Rough Solvency Ratio with Youi additions + cap raise	163%	163%
Rough Solvency assuming no EQC payout of $50m	119%

Sadly I agree they might need another cap raise if there is a rule change and they dont get the EQC payout.

[winner69]

Glad some Lake Oahu folk were insured ...though it must be hard for those who have lost a lot

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/361285

[winner69]

The way they say a big event is going to ‘impact’ profit by $x sort of suggests that they planned to have no big events.

Surely they plan/budget to have events as a matter of course

Or is this $5m to $7m they mention the bit that’s over the planned losses?

And they had no F21 forecast yet ..have they?

[Leemsip]

The way they say a big event is going to ‘impact’ profit by $x sort of suggests that they planned to have no big events.

Surely they plan/budget to have events as a matter of course

Or is this $5m to $7m they mention the bit that’s over the planned losses?

And they had no F21 forecast yet ..have they?

F@ck I hate this company.
Terribly low info in each update. Have they hit the re-insurance cap with just this fire or what? $7m is material to a company making $30m, what about some more details FFS.

Mustnt sell before the 6 months results are in..... I keep repeating that

[winner69]

F@ck I hate this company.
Terribly low info in each update. Have they hit the re-insurance cap with just this fire or what? $7m is material to a company making $30m, what about some more details FFS.

Mustnt sell before the 6 months results are in..... I keep repeating that

And new financial year just started ...not a good start eh

Betcha there a few more big events to come in F21 .....wonder how many more

[Marilyn Munroe]

The Ohau release is slightly misleading in my opinion.

A claim being made against an insurance company is not an unexpected event. When a policy is issued a portion of the premium is transferred to provisions where it is set aside to meet expected claims. While a provision is obviously not an an exact determination of future events a customers house burning down is not a surprise.

It is only when claims exceed provisions and overtop excessive loss reinsurance the profit and loss takes a a hit.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn