Zinc

[Huang Chung]

TORONTO - Forecasters may be overestimating the global supply of base metals, particularly zinc, Octagon Research said on Thursday, suggesting that hard-hit metal prices may rebound sooner than expected.
Analyst Hendrik Visagie said in a note that the market has been too focused on concerns about falling demand, and has been ignoring a supply side that is becoming much leaner as low prices and tight credit markets have forced producers to shut mines and delay new projects.
"We can count 800 000 tons to 1-million tons of zinc supply to come off the market for next year. That's 8 to 9 percent of the world's mine supply not there," he told Reuters.
"The point is that supply is dropping much faster than any realistic long-term demand forecast."
In the past, miners might stockpile metal and keep a mine running during a low-price environment, until prices rebound. But the freeze-up of credit markets has made this impossible, forcing mines to instead suspend operations.
Brazil's Vale became the latest producer to announce such measures on Thursday, saying it would close indefinitely its Copper Cliff South mine in Ontario, and will suspend its Voisey's Bay nickel and copper mine in Newfoundland and Labrador for one month.
Zinc, copper, and nickel prices have fallen 52%t, 51%, and 65% so far this year, while large inventories of unsold metal have prompted many to predict more declines.
But Visagie said production cutbacks have yet to hit prices, noting that it can take up to four months for ore pulled out of a mine to end up as shipped metal. This means mines closed in October may not affect end-users until February.
As well, he believes the market has overestimated the drop in demand.
Visagie expects the strongest rebound from zinc, and is also bullish on copper and lead, as well as nickel to a lesser degree.

[tricha]

Thanks for the advice Tricha, but I'll take my chances.

By the way, we aren't being a bit selective with our posts, are we Tricha?....it took me 30sec cruising around the site you provided the link for to find the following:

http://www.chinamining.org/News/2008...329d12700.html

Personally, I wouldn't necessarily believe any of it...the whole site seems like a big propaganda machine that says to foreigners WE DON'T NEED YOU, SO DON'T EXPECT US TO PAY MUCH FOR YOUR COMMODITIES.

Yeah, right......

Hmm, u r partly right, but here is the crunch.

China used to be a net exporter of zinc.

It is now and thats the problem, who can compete against them, no one in OZ.

[Huang Chung]

From what I understand T, chinese zinc mines are fairly low grade, and they are suffereing from a low price just like everyone else. Can't see why they will suddenly become exporters of zinc in that environment.

[tricha]

From what I understand T, chinese zinc mines are fairly low grade, and they are suffereing from a low price just like everyone else. Can't see why they will suddenly become exporters of zinc in that environment.

I think about 900,000,000 Chinese work for a bowl of rice a day.

[SEC]

It is unfortunate that unprofitable mining companies such as Perilya and Minara are being propped up with cash by majority shareholders. The only ones that are likely to benefit are management and employees, and perhaps only short term. The minority shareholders get massively diluted with little chance of any recovery, and the base metals markets continue to get flooded with subsidised product. This in turn adds to stockpiles and prolongs a depressed metals price which in turn may cause the high cost miners to go belly up anyway. Keep away from such co's.

SEC

[Huang Chung]

Zinc battery technology

http://www.green-energy-news.com/arc.../20090017.html

[Huang Chung]

Borrowed from Hot Copper...

By Rex Roy
Detroit Bureau
Senior EV Editor
The Auto Channel

Detroit Janyuary 14, 2009; Surprisingly, it's been nearly two decades since the last major advance in battery technology. For non-geeky battery types, this would have been the commercialization of the Lithium Ion cell. This battery type remains the industry's standard for pure electric vehicles because it can deliver more power over a longer period of time at a lower cost than any competitive technology.

However, for what the automotive industry refers to as High Efficiency Vehicles (HEVs) — what we call conventional hybrids — a new battery technology is on the horizon that will make these vehicles less costly, less weighty, and even more green (in terms of battery pack recyclablility).

The new technology comes from the California company PowerGenix. The company holds 23 patents (granted and pending) on Nickel-Zinc batteries. The base formulation for NiZn batteries isn't new (Thomas Edison attempted but gave up on making the formulation work), but as PowerGenix CEO, Dan Squiller noted, "What the engineers and chemists at PowerGenix discovered was how to make the elements play nice together and last for an extended period of time while charging and discharging."

Currently, HEVs use Nickel Metal Hydride batteries. The new NiZn formulation packs 30-percent more power into a package that weighs 30-percent less than NiMH power cells. On top of this, the PowerGenix cells cost 20-percent less. The company has retrofitted a Toyota Prius with their batteries, and report solid results from the lighter vehicle.

In spite of this success, don't look for PowerGenix brand batteries to be on sale at your local Radio Shack or under the hood of a Toyota Prius anytime soon. While the company already manufacturers their NiZn cells for use in power tools, electric scooters, electric bikes, and for companies selling rechargeable AA and AAA batteries (check out the NiZn cells at Ritz Camera), PowerGenix has opted not to create a brand name for their batteries (they don't want to take on the big-spending bunny). Regarding automotive applications, PowerGenix plans to license their technology.

According to Squiller, the company's batteries will be used in automotive applications (HEVs) in the foreseeable future, but probably not sooner than 2011 models. "We expect that HEVs will become a standard of sorts in the next few years," Squiller said as he referenced the expansion of the "auto stop" feature on vehicles with standard internal combustion engines. "These vehicles represent the perfect application of Nickel Zinc battery technology, because they need bursts of power for short durations and this is something that our batteries do very well."

When a vehicle goes into the "auto stop" mode, the engine shuts down, but all accessories stay running. As in some GM hybrids (the Saturn Vue and Chevrolet Malibu, for example), a helper electric motor can also add torque to the internal combustion engine. NiZn batteries will supply the power for these applications. Squiller wouldn't comment on which automotive manufactures might first use PowerGenix NiZn technology, but the CEO hinted that it would be a company known for its "aggressive" pursuit of environmental technologies. Our bet is Honda and/or Mercedes.

As HEVs become more popular, there will also be a need to deal with the "dead" battery packs, and NiZn units are readily recyclable.

EV-Motoring.com will keep you posted on future battery technology updates as they become available.

[Joshuatree]

Zinc prices climbing steadily anyone got a fave Zinc mining co they would like to share about; appreciate it cheers JT

[Joshuatree]

Demand to outpace supply by 2020; Zinc likely to hit $4,500 per mt: CRU
Also read Ironbark Zinc increments capital in the same webpage

According to Helen O'Cleary, analyst at CRU, the zinc prices could retouch the 2006/2007 highs.

CRU predicts that zinc demand will outpace supply by 2020, taking the prices to $4,500 per mt. However, during this year, the prices are expected to remain flat with some intermittent rallies. The CRU analyst expects the global zinc market to remain balanced in 2014. However, it may turn deficit in 2015.

The deficit in global market is expected to aggravate as fresh supplies from mines are expected to dry up over the next 5-year period. Also, the demand from Asian region excluding China will overtake Chinese demand towards the end of this decade.

The rise in zinc prices may force end-users to look for cheaper substitutes. China - the top consumer and producer of refined zinc may see rise in domestic prices during the second quarter of the year, backed by firm industrial and construction sector demand.

The Chinese decision to speed up the construction of railway tracks and highway roads may boost the domestic demand for zinc. According to Chinese customs, the country’s imports of refined zinc during the initial two-month period of the year surged higher by 84% over the previous year.

Last month, LME Zinc prices had touched one-year highs of $2,143 per tonne. The metal closed at $1,988.75 on the LME on Friday

[Daytr]

Hey JT, I have been a massive fan of zinc for the last 3 years or so, although it has taken a long to get going & the price has finally exploded & I think its quite possible it will again reach the heights we saw back in 2006 I think it was of over $4k/ton. The main reason I have been friendly to it is due to the lack of exploration & mine development in the last 10-15 years. The collapse of Pasminco & Zinafex put paid to that & then there was Western Metals as well. We looked at trying to finance a zinc mine back in 2011 & there was no way the bank credit guys would go near it & when you dug into why, it all came down to there experience with Pasminco & I think many banks are like this in regards zinc related financing. In regards the article you posted, what's the relationship between Chinese rail & zinc? There certainly is one with copper & steel etc but zinc seems a bit tenuous to me. Is it cladding for all the additional buildings etc?
Either way it was only a matter of time before demand started to outstrip constrained supply.

The difficulty is as you saying finding the right exposure. Perilya has the old Pasminco assets. I found them pretty good to deal with but that was a few years ago. Where did the Kagara zinc/lead assets end up? I did a massive zinc/lead & copper hedge back for them back in 2005.

Venturex (VXR) is a multi metal explorer who weren't that far from looking at going into production a few years ago, before prices fell back. They had a reasonable amount of zinc.

Otherwise I'm a bit out of touch to be honest, so it would be good to hear anyone else's thoughts.