If USD collapses

[Aussie]

Property for me is a long term play. I am cashed up and with rates at these levels, it makes more sense for me to put my money in properties than in the bank. I have holding power and can ride out the storm. Property is part of my strategy in the portfolio, esp when I sold out all my investment property 2-3 years back.

Hey, I maybe wrong, but then I have holding power and can ride it out, esp when my investment properties are all cashflow positive.

Dr_Who, generally I like property too, but not at the moment. There's so much more uncertainty to come and a lot of it is going to affect banks and paper currencies and so by extension - the property market . . . and property is SO illiquid.

Personally, I'm bullish on property long-term. I think that there will be unbelievable property deals in the coming years.

But respectfully, a couple of questions . . .

Have you seen clear signs of a bottom in property yet? I see no blood in the streets. I don't hear of people despising their property investments and I see no signs of capitulation in the property market. I think the property slide has a ways to go yet.

This financial crisis is just beginning - not ending. IMO it has years to go. In the near future, property will have a lot less value if people find it hard to borrow because A) they lose their jobs and the market is flooded with inventory or B) the local banks continue to tighten lending or have problems sourcing overseas funds or people cannot come up with large deposits.

Have you protected at least a healthy portion of your wealth by investing in gold? If you leave your wealth in cash, you leave it in the hands of the government and the international bankers to manage for you. Remember, they can guarantee the number of NZD in your account, but they cannot guarantee its value! This storm may be bigger and more destructive than you can imagine.

For example, 12 months or so ago, my brother-in-law sold 1/2 of his dairy farm for NZ$1.7m. His timing was excellent. However, he thought he was being conservative by putting the money on deposit in the bank. While he was busy earning 8% in interest, he lost at least 35% or about NZ$600,000 in real world purchasing power via currency depreciation. He doesn't realize it now, but he will in a year or so when everything here is rising like the current price of petrol.

Not to put too finer a point on it, but even though my share portfolio is down 25%, my net worth in NZD is higher now than it was a year ago . . . ONLY because I have a substantial portion of it in bullion . . . it has been my saving grace!

Something to think about anyway . . .

Cheers

[Dr_Who]

Thanks for the advice Aussie.

My portfolio strategy is in place for a long term recession. I do have some gold bars and gold stocks and even have some short positions in the market to hedge my portfolio. All is in place for blood on the streets. I am no guru and cant predict everything with accuracy. What I can do is make sure my investments are cashflow positive with downside protection.

Cheers guys. All the best.

[Aussie]

We are getting close

I believe the world's financial system is crossing a very important threshold as I write this. The world is now asking some very pertinent questions and questioning some very long held beliefs. For example, Germany has recently had more failed auctions, China is demanding "assurances" that the Dollar will be supported, several world leaders and organizations have identified the current world economy as in "depression", and here in the U.S. we look forward to more unfunded bailouts.

All of this revolves around one central flaw that has been obvious to anyone who has ever run, or been on a budget. I am not talking about the obvious fact that you cannot spend more than you make, nor borrow forever. As simple as it may seem, no one nor no entity [government] can borrow more money than there is in existence. This is exactly what the U.S. is proposing to do, it cannot be done mathematically but this is the plan. We used to hear about the possibility of the U.S. "crowding out" other borrowers from the credit markets, we are now far beyond this.

This past week Germany had its second failed auction of the year, with the proposed debt appetite in the U.S., it is now only a matter of time until we experience the same. When the U.S. has its first failed auction which I can already can smell, nothing will function, world finance will stop dead in its tracks. The current situation has been blamed on the "credit crunch", as I see it, by trying to borrow its way out of the credit crunch the U.S. is doubling down its bet and actually exposing its own bankruptcy.

Hilary Clinton is expected to go to China later this week to discuss funding and finance for the Treasury. Good luck! China wants assurances that the U.S. will support the Dollar? Again, lots of luck! Every trick in the book has already been thrown at supporting the Dollar to date, any assurances given will have no more value than the Dollar. The only question now is "when" does China pull the plug, they have to sooner or later because they simply don't have it to lend it. I believe it is now dawning on the rest of the world that the U.S. needs to borrow more than the sum total amount of the world's capital pool, impossible.

So the world is figuring out the math, global debt auctions have been touch and go, assets are continuing to deflate and the "D" word is now making the rounds, interesting to say the least. However, as reported by Chris Powell of Gata, and followed up on by Jim Sinclair, I think the most interesting chapter is about to open. "Where's the Gold" will be more riveting than anything we've seen so far, this chapter will in my opinion dwarf all other past frauds. Doing the simple math of how many ounces the Gold ETF's say they have, has some people scratching their heads. I would say "and rightly so" but it is not. The amount of Gold claimed to be held is certainly a fantasy because it had to come from somewhere and no exchange is saying that their inventories have depleted by even 1 ounce. Where did the supply come from? Yes, it had to come from somewhere or it is just fictitious accounting? In all likelihood all this "supposed bullion" is only paper and will burn with the rest of the system.

Common sense says the ETF's do not have the metal they claim to have, neither do the Central Banks. This little inconvenience will erupt into the scandal of all scandals. Once the ETF's are found out, next in line will be Central Banks and in particular the U.S. Treasury. I think that very soon pressure will rise for the U.S. to come clean about it's Gold reserves. I think we may never know for sure but when the stench of rotten fish begins to spread and the world starts asking for verification of reserves, the greatest scandal and Treasury looting in history will be front and center.

______________________

The above was written over the weekend, this morning looks like a panic brewing. If Dow 7,500+-, and S+P 780+- breaks here, we will probably see a cascade downward. Make sure your pantry is stocked as the banks in Europe are imploding and one day soon we will wake to a closed market and banking system. I think we will see numerous gaps down when they are able to open markets, very similar to Russia over the past 6-8 months

Regards, Bill H.

[arco]

"Although he has been much defamed, Martin Armstrong of Princeton Economic Institute did no doubt stumble upon a unique cycle in financial market analysis. He began with the simple procedure of adding up all the financial panics between 1683 and 1907, and dividing the 224 intervening years by the number of panics that he found, 26 of them to be precise. The result was an average duration between panics of approximately 8.6 years. Of note, 8.6 years also equals 3141 days, or the mathematical symbol of "pi" times 1000"............................................. ...........

Full Article

.http://www.page88.co.za/cr/armstrong.shtml

[Aussie]

Armstrong's stuff is fascinating arco. He predicts that March '09 is when the public will become "aware" that there is no hope for the economy anytime soon and around March 19th onwards things will take a much bigger turn for the worst.

[peat]

not long to wait 2009.3 = March 19th

tho he says on page 30
that this one is not a major turning point so wont happen to the very day

but hes not talking about the fall of the USD necessarily

[fungus pudding]

Property for me is a long term play. I am cashed up and with rates at these levels, it makes more sense for me to put my money in properties than in the bank. I have holding power and can ride out the storm. Property is part of my strategy in the portfolio, esp when I sold out all my investment property 2-3 years back.

You like property, it's part of your strategy. You see it as long term. You have holding power to ride out a storm. So why on earth did you sell out?

[arco]

Armstrong's stuff is fascinating arco. He predicts that March '09 is when the public will become "aware" that there is no hope for the economy anytime soon and around March 19th onwards things will take a much bigger turn for the worst.

Craig 3215 is a friend of Martin Armstrong, and may be able
give us some updates on his ongoing thoughts.

[arco]

For anyone who is interested..............

77 page PDF here from Martin Armstrong here.......ITS JUST TIME

http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour...nArmstrong.pdf

[dumbass]

from the pdf of the sp500 that you sent me peat , this is how Max see things unfolding.

he has 5 wave count for wave A which means he's counting it as a zig zag correction.

B wave rally of about 50% of wave A fall and then C wave takes us back down.

commonly A = C which is around 3000 give or take a point or two.

scary scary stuff indeed.

a wonder if he ever looks at sharetrader , would be interesting to see if im reading it correct.