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  1. #11
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    lol
    one of those core positions was -385 at one stage. just as well I trade small.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  2. #12
    Member Aussie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TwinkleToes View Post
    Can a forex guy out there help me? What is the best currency pair to be in if the USD collapses over the next 12 months? One that leverage can be used for unlike Yuan. JPY, SFr, .........?
    How about gold currency . . . It's risen in value by about 50% in NZD terms over the past 12 months. Is there any other asset that can top that?

  3. #13
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    Aussie dollars looking like its building for a leg up. The RBA also defends the 60c mark (rumoured), so it could be a safe currency when the USD falls?
    Disclaimer: Do not take my posts seriously. They are only opinions.

    AMR has sold all shares and is pursuing property.

  4. #14
    Guru Dr_Who's Avatar
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    USD very weak!
    Having got ourselves into a debt-induced economic crisis, the only permanent way out is to reduce the debt – either directly by abolishing large slabs of it, or indirectly by inflating it away.

  5. #15
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    talking about Zimbabwean dollars...........
    if / when mugabe gets kicked out voted out or dies of old age,
    somewhere between 3 months and 10 years...........
    the zimbabwean currency will skyrocket upwards.
    the people and the economy may be ravished,
    the the land is still the most fertile in africa.

    a real change of leadership will see the growth story of the century in this saga.

    trouble is........ with inflation in the millions, when do you take up the punt on its currency or its desimated business?

    sort of like russia 10 years ago.........
    the right timing will be very rewarding.

  6. #16
    Member Aussie's Avatar
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    Default From Bill Holter at Le Metropole Cafe . . .

    I'm sure we are all waiting with bated breath for the Fed decision later today. The Fed is projected to lower rates to .5% from the current 1% on the fed funds rate. WHO CARES! The Fed started lowering rates about 16 months ago, I wrote at the time that lowering rates would not "make bad loans, good ones". In hindsight, lowering rates has done very little other than the short term "psychological boosts" they provided for the equity markets only to fade away quickly. But here we are at the doorstep of ZERO percent and the Fed has no ammo left. It took about a year and a half but now for all the world to see, THE FED HAS NO TEETH! They have gotten no traction whatsoever and in the meantime their balance sheet has turned into a monster sized cesspool of bad debts.

    Let's go back to mid July, remember the "rally call" was for a stronger Dollar because the Fed was going to begin raising rates by the third or fourth quarter? Well, the 3rd and 4th quarters have come and gone and the Fed has not, and cannot raise rates. Back in the summer we were supposed to "skirt" recession, begin a recovery, and have a stronger Dollar because of the rate differentials with the rest of the world. All we got was a stronger Dollar because of the demand to pay off $ Dollar debt. Now, even the short covering rally is in the rear view mirror and the Dollar is returning to its death spiral.

    Now we enter into "the moment of truth and consequences" phase. The Fed will have no wiggle room as far as rates are concerned, they have lost credibility on a global scale, and only have one gun left with bullets. They can print! This is all they can do as they have backed themselves into the corner, the Fed has spun yarn from here to eternity regarding the banks, the economy, etc.. It has all turned out to be wrong, they clearly were "buying time" for a miracle to occur. Well, when it comes to "math" which is really what economics, finance, and banking all boil down to, THERE ARE NO MIRACLES! Math is math, reality is reality, and facts are facts. The smoke, the mirrors, the misdirection, all the lies, all the frauds, are all in the process of being discovered because the "consequences" are surely beginning to make themselves felt.

    This is it, the Fed and the Treasury are in the process of losing the Dollar. The Dollar has now lost 7-8% in a very short time, it is clear that the top is in. Now we will get to see many naked truths. When history is written, the American miracle that was, took a U turn in the 70's. The Dollar as it turns out has been a Ponzi scheme, the stock and real estate markets turned out to be bubbles that grew through debts based upon debts, nothing was as it appeared to be. Mark my words, the amount of fraud still present in the system will dwarf what has turned up so far. The prosperity was false and the U.S. will be treated as any and all "debtor nations" have in the past, they will be shut off from the credit markets, goods markets, geopolitical decisions and on and on. When someone commits a fraud, do you do further business with them? No you do not, you isolate and shun them for your own good.

    We will be left with one lasting legacy, HYPERINFLATION. The consequences of building a banking system and economy on a currency that is intrinsically worthless is hyperinflation. We have traded "IOU nothings" for years now but I sense that here and now in this current reversal of the Dollar, the jig is up. Common sense will prevail, when something has no value you do not to accept it in payment for something real, be it goods or services. Gold and Silver have gone into hiding and are in strong hands because investors smell the same thing I do, the U.S. currency is in the process of breaking down. The Dollar scam is over, it's sad, but it is the truth.

  7. #17
    Member Aussie's Avatar
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    Default Pay attention . . . this is as serious as serious gets!

    We have begun the end game when it comes to the Dollar and the world monetary system. Yesterday's rate cut to zero % is beyond farce for any central bank, this is third world stuff that they are adopting as official policy. The flight from the Dollar is continuing again today with close to a 10% drop in value from little over a week ago. This is BIG monetary stuff, in fact the biggest in history. At different points in history England, France, and Spain all held sway over the worlds' monetary system by virtue of having the largest hoard of Gold and thus the strongest currency. This was also true for the U.S. from 1944-1971. Since 1971 the Dollar has been the reserve currency but it truly was only a pretender.

    Now that "quantitative easing" has become the new buzz word, the Dollar can in no way compete against anything real or even remotely scarce. The Fed and Treasury have told us all that they will continue to provide more money and credit until "deflation" is no longer a potential problem, this is clearly flawed. First off, with the amount of derivatives and credit outstanding [and blowing up on a daily basis] they cannot possibly create credit faster than it is collapsing. This IS deflation! BUT, they are intent on battling the "deflation monster" so print print print they will. Now for the next part that is only now just beginning to dawn on people, all this new money and credit absolutely DWARFS "real stuff".

    If you add together all the commodities worldwide currently available for delivery, you don't even get a pimple on an elephant's ass as compared to the amount of "paper" that's been created over just the last 3 months to fill all of the "black holes". This fake stuff has been piling in as fast as possible into Treasury securities now yielding less than 3%. Once it begins to dawn on investors that getting a sub 3% yield for 30 years in a currency that can drop 10% in a week, then it becomes "Houston we have a problem". The Treasury market has, like all other "bubble" markets before it, become STUPID. It is now set up for the biggest bloodbath in history.

    The solvency of the U.S. Treasury and Fed will surely be questioned soon, and the recklessness of these two entities will be case studies for the next 100 years or more. Oh yeah, the best part is Paulson and Bernanke telling us they will "drain the excess liquidity" once the economy begins to turn around. Just a couple of questions for them; and when did you say the turnaround will be?, will the Treasury or Fed still be solvent by then?. I really don't think they have a clue.

    Regards, Bill H.

    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com
    Last edited by Aussie; 18-12-2008 at 07:41 PM.

  8. #18
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    ...would not count out the US-currency just yet and think, it is undergoing a substantial correction rather then the final Good Bye, short term that is

    ...there is still a lot of deleveraging to come with more hedge funds going to bite the dust

    ...and as far as I understand the monetary stance of the FED, if they succeed in re-inflating the economy (it did not happen that way in Japan), how can they keep inflation in control (mopping up the trash) when things are starting to bubble again, when they are paying a paltry 2.25% on borrowing now???...or is it that the economy will stay in a prolonged slump??

    Kind Regards

  9. #19
    Member Aussie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ananda77 View Post
    . . . if they succeed in re-inflating the economy (it did not happen that way in Japan), how can they keep inflation in control (mopping up the trash) when things are starting to bubble again, when they are paying a paltry 2.25% on borrowing now?
    It's mostly a lot less than that . . . The 3 month T-Bill is a fraction above 0%. The 6 month is not far off it . . . hell the 30 year is less than 2.5%. Who in their right mind would tie up their money for 30 years at that rate, pay taxes and then factor 30 years worth of inflation. What a joke. The Treasury market is the biggest bubble yet and when it pops it will truly be the shot that is heard around the world. Americans will suddenly awake to a bank holiday and their very own Argentina.

    But it's not just the US economy that needs re-inflating, it's the entire world economy. This has NEVER been tried before like this. What makes anyone believe that Bernake & Co have any clue as what they are doing. All I can say . . . Got Gold?

  10. #20
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    Hi Aussie,

    The design is called: 'The Great Depression II' and GOLD IS GOOD

    ...short US treasuries in New Zealand?? -how-

    Kind Regards

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