sharetrader
Page 3 of 19 FirstFirst 123456713 ... LastLast
Results 21 to 30 of 190
  1. #21
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    AUD.NZD
    Posts
    2,877

    Default

    Maybe we could be seeing the next round of mortgage related problems when these similar style US loans start defaulting.

    Interesting view, lets hope its not as bad as they make it out to be - but it looks pretty bad.

    Huge Crash Coming
    http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=shYJ_KkbzWg
    Last edited by arco; 21-12-2008 at 09:43 AM.
    ___________________


    ___________________

  2. #22
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    AUD.NZD
    Posts
    2,877

    Default Richard Branson says economy is "f****d"

    Sir Richard Branson has delivered a characteristically blunt verdict on the state of the economy, describing it as "f****d".
    But Britain's cheeriest billionaire said that he hoped that the downturn might only last a couple of years instead of becoming a repeat of the Great Depression of the 1930s as so many economists now fear.
    The Virgin boss was asked his views on the economy by Five News. “I was going to say, it’s f*****, but I think I had better not have said that,” he replied.
    He added: “I think it is a terrible, terrible mess, which has been brought upon us by some very irresponsible people in the banking community, some very lax regulation and we are going to have to work hard to dig ourselves out of it.
    Related Links











    “I think governments have moved quickly and hopefully it will be a two-year, two or three-year nightmare not a 1929 nightmare. But we are all going to have to work very, very hard to get things back on the even level.”
    A spokesman for Sir Richard said: “He’s only saying what everyone’s thinking, in a more forthright way. He was making the point that the economy is in dire straits. It’s nothing that hasn’t been said every day for the last three months.”



    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle5358019.ece
    ___________________


    ___________________

  3. #23
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,465

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Aussie View Post
    ... Who in their right mind would tie up their money for 30 years at that rate, pay taxes and then factor 30 years worth of inflation. What a joke. The Treasury market is the biggest bubble yet and when it pops it will truly be the shot that is heard around the world. Americans will suddenly awake to a bank holiday and their very own Argentina.
    ...well it is those people, who expect Depression II, as the bond market has factored in a slump of around 5 years and in case of a bank holiday, the best way to park cash is US treasuries

    Quote Originally Posted by Aussie View Post
    What makes anyone believe that Bernake & Co have any clue as what they are doing. All I can say . . . Got Gold?
    ...what the FED is trying to achieve of course is to discourage investors to buy treasuries or money market funds, but put their money somewhere else, like bank deposits and equities for example, just the opposite of what is happening right now;

    ...and with interest rates at 0% short- and approaching a lot lower levels long term, credit will be a lot cheaper in the mortgage sector; this should revive the dead securitization market; together with quantitative easing, a wave of liquidity will swamp the market and away goes a new and bigger asset bubble...

    ...there are a lot of unknowns within this FED strategy, but as the old saying goes:
    DO NOT FIGHT THE FED (and personally I would not);

    The BEST HEDGE under the current circumstances is definitely holding physical gold as long one can dide it out of reach from the greedy tentacles of utterly corrupt governments;

    Kind Regards
    Last edited by ananda77; 21-12-2008 at 02:45 PM. Reason: addition

  4. #24
    Member Aussie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Posts
    241

    Default Is Now The Time To Short US Treasury Bonds?

    Quote Originally Posted by ananda77 View Post
    ...short US treasuries in New Zealand?? -how
    ananda77, I wasn't suggesting that as a strategy just offering some info but if you are interested I'm sure there is a fund or an ETF somewhere . . . this is a related article.

    Why Now Is The Time To Short US Treasury Bonds?

    http://www.contrarianprofits.com/art...ry-bonds/10276

    Cheers

  5. #25
    Member Aussie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Posts
    241

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by ananda77 View Post
    ...what the FED is trying to achieve of course is to discourage investors to buy treasuries or money market funds, but put their money somewhere else, like bank deposits and equities for example, just the opposite of what is happening right now
    The US Treasury market is so unbelievably huge and it is the last great bubble. It is the only place that governments and corporations feel that there is any safety. They can't/won't park their idle $Billions of dollars into money markets accounts with a banking institution that could go broke. They are turning to the US government as a final source of safety.

    Imagine what will happen when they discover that the US government really is insolvent and their measly "interest" is really just more worthless printed paper. The rush into tangible assets, especially gold and silver will be absolutely breath taking.

    Here a brief commentary from this week's The Privateer which is very interesting. If you are familiar with the inverted debt pyramid it's interesting to note that we are now about one step away from the apex - which is of course - gold.

    THE US DOLLAR IS NOT WORTH SAVING

    The US Federal Reserve has made it - to ZERO. It has no further place to
    go after cutting official interest rates to record lows of 0.00 - 0.25 percent.
    Endless US Credit - At NO Cost??

    From here on, monetary absurdities abound. The US Federal Reserve
    Note as issued into external circulation is on the balance sheet of the Fed
    as a liability - a debt. Anybody who accepts it has de facto given credit to
    the issuer of the note, they have made a loan to the Fed. Americans, of
    course, have no choice here because they must accept the Fed Note. It has
    been made legal tender inside the US. Foreigners, though, are under no
    such legal obligation. It shows. The US Dollar (aka the Fed Note) has
    dived precipitously on the currency markets.

    The post July 2008 US Dollar rally is over - the USDX (US Dollar Index)
    has given back half its gains. The Fed is now strongly hinting that it will
    soon issue its own debts! This is absurd. The Fed is proposing to issue its
    own bonds, notes, etc which will pay a rate of interest. The interest will
    be paid in Fed Notes, non-interest paying debt paper which the Fed can
    create in unlimited quantities.

    That amounts to the Fed paying interest payments on its future debts by
    printing the non-interest paying Fed Notes required. Economically, this
    makes the US Dollar (aka the Fed Note) not worth saving, buying or even
    holding. If the issuer of a debt can service the debt, and later redeem it -
    repay the principal amount of the loan - with its own non-interest paying
    notes, then no repayment has been made at all. One debt - the non-interest
    rate bearing Fed Note - will be used to repay the other. To repay a debt
    with another debt is fraud. That is what the Fed is proposing to do.


    Ultimately what they are trying to do is keep people INSIDE the banking system - period. Just one of the great reasons to own gold is that it is always money that exists OUTSIDE of the banking system so no matter what happens to the international finance system whether it's banking collapse or currency devaluation - if people own gold they are protected. The money masters are desperate to keep people out of alternative stores of value like gold, silver and commodities. In that regard it is a giant ponzi scheme.


    Permission hereby given to
    quote short excerpts - provided
    full attribution is given:
    © 2008 - The Privateer
    http://www.the-privateer.com
    capt@the-privateer.com
    (reproduced with permission)

  6. #26
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,465

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Aussie View Post
    ananda77, I wasn't suggesting that as a strategy just offering some info but if you are interested I'm sure there is a fund or an ETF somewhere . . . this is a related article.

    Why Now Is The Time To Short US Treasury Bonds?

    http://www.contrarianprofits.com/art...ry-bonds/10276

    Cheers
    ...no problem Aussie; at this stage, -NOT SHORTING JUST YET- only reading the market:

    -early in December, bond traders tried to drive down bond prices, but after Bernanke announced the FED's intention (5-12-08) to buy bonds to drive down yields to stimulate the economy, bond prices took off again;
    -the Fed's intervention in the bond market is the ONLY factor currently driving bond prices up, to extent the bond bubble to even more extreme limits;
    -basically, getting ready to jump to short the bond market at the earliest indication of a divergence indicating a turn around...

    -Rydex Inverse Government Long Bond Strategy - C Class (RYJCX)...this is one of them;

    Kind Regards

  7. #27
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    AUD.NZD
    Posts
    2,877

    Default

    Quite an interesting table...................
    World Interest Rates Table

    Interest rates in Brazil and Egypt have actually gone up (to 13.75 and 11% respectively)

    But Iceland looks to be the current winner - was 12% NOW 18%


    http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/...t-rates-table/
    ___________________


    ___________________

  8. #28
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,465

    Default

    -But the Fed's argument doesn't stack up. US inflation – as measured by the pre-Clinton methodology, before the politicians started messing with the numbers – stands at 4.5pc.

    Deflation is being used as an excuse for the US authorities to print money like crazy, attempting to bury their mistakes and bail out their Wall Street friends.

    This reality is crystal-clear. The fact other economists aren't shouting it from the roof tops is both an outrage and a farce.

    US Fed's foolhardiness is of more concern than deflation
    By Liam Halligan
    Last Updated: 10:08AM GMT 21 Dec 2008
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...deflation.html

    The Madoff Economy
    By PAUL KRUGMAN
    Published: December 19, 2008
    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/19/op...rugman.html?em

    Kind Regards

  9. #29
    Member Aussie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Posts
    241

    Default Lee Iacocca on the current crisis America and what we need to do

    Quote Originally Posted by ananda77 View Post
    This reality is crystal-clear. The fact other economists aren't shouting it from the roof tops is both an outrage and a farce . . .
    What happens there affects us here. Has anyone else been wondering where is the outrage from Americans . . ? Eighty four year old legendary CEO Lee Iacocca who brought Chrysler back from bankruptcy in 1979 is pissed off . . .

    20/12/08
    Lee Iacocca writes:

    Am I the only guy in this country who’s fed up with what’s happening? Where the hell is our outrage? We should be screaming bloody murder. We’ve got a gang of clueless bozos steering our ship of state right over a cliff, we’ve got corporate gangsters stealing us blind, and we can’t even clean up after a hurricane much less build a hybrid car. But instead of getting mad, everyone sits around and nods their heads when the politicians say, “Stay the course.”

    Stay the course? You’ve got to be kidding. This is America, not the damned Titanic. I’ll give you a sound bite: Throw the bums out!

    You might think I’m getting senile, that I’ve gone off my rocker, and maybe I have. But someone has to speak up. I hardly recognize this country anymore.

    The most famous business leaders are not the innovators but the guys in handcuffs. While we’re fiddling in Iraq , the Middle East is burning and nobody seems to know what to do. And the press is waving ‘pom-poms’ instead of asking hard questions. That’s not the promise of the ‘ America ‘ my parents and yours traveled across the ocean for. I’ve had enough. How about you?

    I’ll go a step further. You can’t call yourself a patriot if you’re not outraged. This is a fight I’m ready and willing to have.

    The Biggest ‘C’ is Crisis!

    Leaders are made, not born. Leadership is forged in times of crisis. It’s easy to sit there with your feet up on the desk and talk theory. Or send someone else’s kids off to war when you’ve never seen a battlefield yourself.

    On September 11, 2001, we needed a strong leader more than any other time in our history. We needed a steady hand to guide us out of the ashes. A Hell of a Mess. So here’s where we stand. We’re immersed in a bloody war with no plan for winning and no plan for leaving. We’re running the biggest deficit in the history of the country. We’re losing the manufacturing edge to Asia , while our once-great Companies are all moving offshore. We’re getting slaughtered by health care costs. Gas prices are skyrocketing, and nobody in power has a coherent energy policy. Our schools are the worst in the world. Our borders are like sieves. The middle class is being squeezed every which way.

    But when you look around, you’ve got to ask: ‘Where have all the leaders gone?’ Where are the curious, creative communicators? Where are the people of character, courage, conviction, omnipotence, and common sense? I may be a sucker for alliteration, but I hope you get the point.

    Name me a leader who has a better idea for homeland security than making us take off our shoes in airports and throw away our shampoo? We’ve spent billions of dollars building a huge new bureaucracy, and all we know how to do is react to things that have already happened.

    Name me one leader who emerged from the crisis of Hurricane Katrina. Congress has yet to spend a single day evaluating the response to the hurricane, or demanding accountability for the decisions that were made in the crucial hours after the storm. Everyone’s hunkering down, fingers crossed, hoping it doesn’t happen again. Well guess what people? We are having more floods right now. What are we doing to help these people out? Now, that’s just crazy. Storms happen. Deal with it. Make a plan. Figure out what you’re going to do the next time. Why are we allowing people to build in flood plains anyway? If you build in a flood area, expect to be flooded and deal with it. Don’t expect the Government to bail you out.

    Name me an industry leader who is thinking creatively about how we can restore our competitive edge in manufacturing. All they seem to be thinking now-days is getting themselves bigger salaries and bonuses. Who would have believed that there could ever be a time when ‘The Big Three’ referred to Japanese car companies? How did this happen, and more important, what are we going to do about it? Likely nothing!
    Name me a government leader who can articulate a plan for paying down the debt, or solving the energy crisis, or managing the health care problem. The silence is deafening. But these are the crises that are eating away at our country and milking the middle class dry. I have news for the gang in Congress and the Senate. We didn’t elect you to sit on your asses and do nothing and remain silent while our democracy is being hijacked and our greatness is being replaced with mediocrity. What is everybody so afraid of? That some bonehead on Fox News will call them a name? Give me a break. Why don’t you guys show some spine for a change? I honestly don’t think any of you have one!

    Had Enough?

    Hey, I’m not trying to be the voice of gloom and doom here. I’m trying to light a fire. I’m speaking out because I have hope; I believe in America … In my lifetime I’ve had the privilege of living through some of America’s greatest moments I’ve also experienced some of our worst crises: the ‘Great Depression’, ‘World War II’, the ‘Korean War’, the ‘Kennedy Assassination’, the ‘Vietnam War’, the 1970s oil crisis, and the struggles of recent years culminating with 9/11. If I’ve learned one thing, it’s this:

    ‘You don’t get anywhere by standing on the sidelines waiting for somebody else to take action. Whether it’s building a better car or building a better future for our children, we all have a role to play. That’s the challenge I’m raising in this book. It’s a call to ‘Action’ for people who, like me, believe in America . It’s not too late, but it’s getting pretty close. So let’s shake off the crap and go to work. Let’s tell ‘em all we’ve had ‘enough.’

  10. #30
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,465

    Default

    -US$ short/Gold long: The Best Currency Pair To Counter The US$ Crash in 2009-

    ...the only way to counter the difficult US-position to keep financing a massive current account deficit without being able to offer anywhere near competitive yield returns or additional capital gains in the treasury bond market is to use a currency response, Rudiger Dornbush (1976) described as “exchange rate overshooting”

    ...according to this model and based on the Fed commitment to keep short term interest rates low (even move further out along the curve (2 year/5 year/10 year/30 year), is to drive the US currency down to extremely depressed levels and as a result, creating expectations that the US$ will appreciate over time...

    ...the gold response in this instance should be clear but such a response also creates a timing point for shorting US treasuries...

    !!Be Aware though:

    -the above outline assumes that the Fed will be successful in re-inflating its way out of the down price spiral;
    -however, there are big risks and, the bond market is the foremost warning sign, that the Fed efforts will NOT be able to stop the down price spiral; consequently, if depression digs deeper and prices will continue to free fall, including the price of gold, the US$ will enter into a major bull market;

    Kind Regards
    Last edited by ananda77; 26-12-2008 at 07:53 PM. Reason: addition

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •