If USD collapses

[arco]

http://research.stlouisfed.org/

A mine of useful information.

The Research Division's goal is to promote quality economic research and contribute to economic policy discussions while expanding the frontier of economic knowledge around the globe in the areas of money and banking, macroeconomics, and international and regional economics.

[peat]

http://research.stlouisfed.org/

A mine of useful information.

some of the graphs of monetary figures are very interesting! m2 climbing steeply and the monetary base itself actually doubling since Sept.

[ananda77]

Inflation Targeting instead of Income Targeting

Inflation targeting does not work if economic turmoil is caused by the bursting of a debt bubble created by monetary inflation, which could only be cured by allowing the bubble burst to liquidate the misallocated investment made during the bubble boom. The debt bubble burst has left the US with a national insolvency problem of insufficient income to support bloated asset price levels. US ideology of market fixation normally limits the solution to come only from market corrections. However, when market correction causes systemic market failure, market ideology is cast aside to make room for practical emergency measures to revive a market system hit by cardiac arrest.

Still, under this market ideology, government assistance is not allowed to be applied directly to distressed individuals who are innocent victims of a dysfunctional debt regime to help them increase their income to transition to a new viable financial regime in a new economic system. It can only be applied to distress institutions deemed too big to fail. Yet nationalization of insolvent private institutions facing weak demand so that they can continue to survive massive losses in a market economy will only bankrupt the entire nation, bringing down all citizens with it.

What the US economy needs in this crisis is not inflation targeting but income targeting. Let’s hope the new Obama administration has the sense to implement immediately a massive income policy when it hits the ground running on January 20, 2009.
http://henryckliu.com/page175.html

Obama aides stress long-term goals
Senior economic adviser warns of 10% unemployment by end of 2009
By Michael Kitchen, MarketWatch

Summers repeated Obama's plans for government works spending, including funds for infrastructure upgrades and environmental technology, but he played down the importance of direct stimulus to consumers.
"Some argue that instead of attempting to both create jobs and invest in our long-run growth, we should focus exclusively on short-term policies that generate consumer spending," he said. "But that approach led to some of the challenges we face today -- and it is that approach that we must reject if we are going to strengthen our middle class and our economy over the long run."
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Obama-aides-stress-long-term/story.aspx?guid={0CA3917B-23A2-449C-9DD9-6A11C723C13A}

-Moody's view of end market performance for US diversified manufacturers in 2009:

[Aussie]

Interesting opinion piece by Bill Holter and he is not the only commentator expressing the same concerns - Bill Buckler at "The Privateer" has been warning of a USD collapse for some time now. These guys were right about the mortgage and derivatives mess, I have no doubt they will be right about a US currency crisis as well.

Anyone who believes that the US can continue to borrow unlimited amounts of capital and savings from the rest of the world is in denial of the current situation and is ignoring past currency history at their peril.

We in NZ should be especially concerned because I think the RBNZ has far more of those paper "USD Reserves" than physical gold.

What will that mean for the international value of the NZD if the reserve asset that underpins it either crashes or is significantly devalued? We now live in a time where NO paper currency is backed by or is convertible into gold, so when the panic comes - there will be no escape for those who were unprepared.

Cheers

Transfer of wealth

Things are about to change very quickly now. In Sept. I wrote "Fannie and Freddie in the lap of the U.S. Treasury"

http://www.forsoundmoney.com/2008/09...sury/#more-180

we are now approximately 4 months past this watershed event, and I believe we are now at the point where the questions will begin. These questions will examine the solvency of the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve, I do not believe either will receive a passing grade whether the Plunge Protection Team can hold things together up until President Bush leaves office is a moot point, the "plunge" is coming no matter what is done.

I believe that very shortly the rest of the world will begin to abstain from Treasury auctions and continue selling Dollars, only now the pace will begin to quicken and become frantic as in a PANIC. The questions will arise as to how safe of a credit U.S. paper is, math questions such as the impossibility of the U.S. ever paying back without printing and borrowing more, and the obvious question, that of default and bankruptcy. The biggest questions of all will be "how do I get paid?", "what do I get for settlement"? The current answer is YOU DON'T and NOTHING! This must change. These are very simple questions that even a child would ask but have been repressed for years now to hide and obscure the Ponzi scheme. Surely the world knows that they have been run through a Ponzi scheme but they want to get out without exposing it, an impossible task indeed.

For the last 60 years or so, Americans lived the "good life" with less and less work and production with each passing generation. A good deal if you lived through it, but then the bill must be paid. This "bill" will be a shocker to all who think that life will go forward and "things are bound to get better". They will not, almost every facet of life will change drastically and the standards of living will decline no matter where in the world you are located. It has become clear that the U.S. must begin to reign in military spending and thus shrink it's global presence on foreign soils.

History has shown that past booms that turned to bust invariably ended up in war, I hope this time will be different because now their are too many competing nations with nuclear capabilities. Because the U.S. financial position has become public and common knowledge, the risks of tensions flaring up will intensify even without Washington stirring up the pot, U.S. weakness or collapse will spark all sorts of aggressive movements and posturing.

The IMF and Council on Foreign Relations have both recently forecast the rising risk of civil unrest worldwide, they have run the numbers and know that the "Dollar hegemony" is collapsing and a monetary change is in the wind. Washington knows this too and have recalled some 40,000 troops trained in "crowd control". It is always bad enough on a country when they are forced to devalue or discontinue a currency, however, the current problems reach the four corners of the Earth and no sovereign will pass unscathed. The collapse of a currency or even a "reserve currency" is nothing new, it has happened many times before. The key to survival has always been whether or not you sought shelter and exited the busted currency in time to preserve your wealth, however, in the past 37 years the game has been one of "musical currencies". Today that game is over as all currencies are "busted" because their reserves being Dollars, are "busted".

Once every 50 to 100 years is it wise to have ALL your assets in either Gold or Silver, this is that time! Physical metal has risen between 10-15% in Dollar terms for 2008, a fantastic return while all else was crumbling. Metal itself has become very, very scarce, and for good reason, smart money has already intellectually arrived at the end game, they are exiting the Dollar system and seeking shelter in the only historically tried and true safehavens. The coming devaluation will dissolve

Treasury values and the last competing safe haven with metal will dry up and blow away, Gold and Silver will be the "last man standing" and absorb absolutely massive amounts of global capital. This is it, this coming year has the potential and probability to have THE largest revaluation and "transfer of wealth" in history. It is very simple actually, the biggest Ponzi scheme in history has been played on the world for at least half of everyone's lifetime, do you not think that when this sham collapses, fortunes will be destroyed and fortunes will be made? This wealth transfer will be FOR ALL THE MARBLES, either wealth is transferred away from you or away toward you, either you stay in the system or you exit it. Very simple but very important choices, these choices will remain a legacy to your future generations, either good or bad.

Regards,

Bill Holter C/O Le Metropole Cafe

[ananda77]

...Surely the world knows that they have been run through a Ponzi scheme but they want to get out without exposing it, an impossible task indeed.
source: http://www.forsoundmoney.com/2008/09...sury/#more-180

...it needs to be found out indeed, if it will be an impossible task because:

-the Brigands are about to raid the Peons again and still it seems, the Peons still haven't got a clue!!!???!!! and this is how its done this time around: see attached graphic

...the problem for the US is that CHINA PEONS, RUSSIA PEONS, GERMANY PEONS, FRANCE PEONS (just to name the most influential) will not tolerate to get ****ed again...

...consequently, 'BE AWARE' how you invest your resources in 2009...

[Aussie]

...it needs to be found out indeed, if it will be an impossible task because:

-the Brigands are about to raid the Peons again and still it seems, the Peons still haven't got a clue!!!???!!! and this is how its done this time around: see attached graphic

...the problem for the US is that CHINA PEONS, RUSSIA PEONS, GERMANY PEONS, FRANCE PEONS (just to name the most influential) will not tolerate to get ****ed again...

...consequently, 'BE AWARE' how you invest your resources in 2009...

All good points ananda77.

Where do people get their news from . . .

Reuters, AP, ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX, NYT, WP etc . . . why do we get the same lame, toothless financial news and disinformation reprinted across the globe? People constantly being told the bottom is in . . . the masters herding the masses back into the stock market only to be slaughtered again. Their savings and retirement accounts picked over one more time . . .

Could it be that the same interests that control international banking, also control much of the international media through large shareholding blocks under different entities that were acquired long ago?

[Aussie]

The ultimate Pyramid Scheme . . .

Attachment 1123

[arco]

.

Everybody is saying buy gold, which probably means we should be selling gold.

Currently a Doji on the weekly chart- could that lead to an Evening Star?

Ichimoku Kumo on the weekly is still bearish with current action stuck in the Kumo (and on a DT line). In fact, two downtrend lines need breaking.

[arco]

Spotted this posted on another forum.

Market Update for December
Market Condition: Volatile Bear

by
Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.


............................My advice, once again, is that secular bear markets usually end when the PE ratios of the S&P 500 hit around 6-8, for example, 1932, 1942, and 1982. We’re in the worst crisis since the Great Depression and perhaps in one that is worse. Are you willing to risk the PE ratio of the S&P 500 dropping to single digits? My advice, get in the market when prices are above the 200-day moving average and get out when they are below (or at least stay out until our market type turns bullish for at least two weeks). That would have kept you out of this market throughout 2008.

[ananda77]

.

Everybody is saying buy gold, which probably means we should be selling gold.

Currently a Doji on the weekly chart- could that lead to an Evening Star?

Ichimoku Kumo on the weekly is still bearish with current action stuck in the Kumo (and on a DT line). In fact, two downtrend lines need breaking.

...Gold DOWN >>>wonderful<<< US$600- 500- 400- bring it on, arco, happy to trade TRASH for CASH to Money Nirvana...