If USD collapses

[ananda77]

Spotted this posted on another forum.

Market Update for December
Market Condition: Volatile Bear

by
Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.


............................My advice, once again, is that secular bear markets usually end when the PE ratios of the S&P 500 hit around 6-8, for example, 1932, 1942, and 1982. We’re in the worst crisis since the Great Depression and perhaps in one that is worse. Are you willing to risk the PE ratio of the S&P 500 dropping to single digits? My advice, get in the market when prices are above the 200-day moving average and get out when they are below (or at least stay out until our market type turns bullish for at least two weeks). That would have kept you out of this market throughout 2008.

...exactly, why buy expensive when you can get it a lot cheaper...

...a bit like the banks, why start lending until money was free ride

Successful NEW YEAR and always

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

...and the GOOD NEWS till last:

Fred and the Economy
http://blip.tv/file/1528079

Kind Regards

[arco]

As of 22 September 2005, the largest gold holdings in tonnes as reported by the World Gold Council can be seen in the table below.[7] The United States' holding of gold is worth approximately US$164 billion (December 2006). A tonne or metric ton (symbol t), sometimes referred to as a metric tonne, is a measurement of mass equal to 1,000 kilograms. ... The World Gold Council, formed in 1987, is an industry association of the worlds leading gold mining companies. ... The United States dollar is the official currency of the United States. ...


1 United States of America 8,133.5 2 Germany 3,427.8 3 International Monetary Fund 3,217.3 4 France 2,892.6 5 Italy 2,451.8 6 Switzerland 1,290.1 7 Japan 765.2 8 Netherlands 722.4 9 European Central Bank 719.9 10 People's Republic of China 600.0 11 Republic of China (Taiwan) 423.3 12 Portugal 407.5 13 Russia 386.6 14 India 357.7 15 Venezuela 357.4 16 United Kingdom 311.3 17 Austria 307.5 18 Lebanon 286.8 19 Spain 283.0 20 Belgium 227.7 21 Philippines 187.9 22 Bank for International Settlements 185.3 23 Algeria 173.6 24 Sweden 155.4 25 Libya 143.8 26 Saudi Arabia 143.0 27 Singapore 127.4 28 South Africa 123.9 29 Turkey 116.1 30 Pakistan 107.9 31 Romania 104.9 32 Poland 102.9 33 Indonesia 96.5 34 Thailand 84.0 35 Australia 79.7 36 Kuwait 79.0 37 Egypt 75.6 38 Denmark 66.5 39 Pakistan 65.3 40 Kazakhstan 58.6

[arco]

_________________________

It will be interesting to see how accurate this mob is - we can look back in 2012 .


These target prices are based on the median of 21 gold analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. As shown, analysts currently aren't expecting a big rally or a big decline in gold over the next few years. By mid-year 2009, analysts are expecting gold to be at $825/ounce, which is less than $10 from its current price of $816. At the end of 2011, analysts expect gold to be down to $790, and then down to $762 by the end of 2012.







Perhaps oil could be a better deal, - heres the Crude Oil Price targets






http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com

[fungus pudding]

_________________________

It will be interesting to see how accurate this mob is - we can look back in 2012 .


These target prices are based on the median of 21 gold analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. As shown, analysts currently aren't expecting a big rally or a big decline in gold over the next few years. By mid-year 2009, analysts are expecting gold to be at $825/ounce, which is less than $10 from its current price of $816. At the end of 2011, analysts expect gold to be down to $790, and then down to $762 by the end of 2012.

It's only good for filling teeth.

[JBmurc]

I see gold stopped trading in 08 at 880-80

In Chinese communities around the world, eight is considered the most fortuitous of numbers, making it much coveted for addresses, phone numbers and bank accounts."



If you're Chinese--every fifth person in the world is--an eight not only portends prosperity but confidence and money worth even millions,

depending where you are.




"In Hong Kong, a personal license plate with the number eight can cost

millions of dollars," says Alhambra, California developer Raymond Cheng, who was born

and reared in the [former] British colony. "A single eight on your license plate gives you status. People know you have to pay top dollars for it."

Today--the eighth day of the eighth month--the cultural significance

of the number eight will be renewed in the Chinese American communities

in the United States too.



For centuries, this ancient culture has held eight as the most

fortuitous of numbers. Early Chinese settlers coming to California a

century and a half ago brought their beliefs with them, passing them on

to the new generations.



Since the '70s, with the influx of moneyed immigrants to the state

from Taiwan and Hong Kong, the traditional tenet about the number eight

has moved beyond the gates of Chinatowns to become an American suburban

fact of life.





People Place Culture History
Chinese home buyers in the San Gabriel Valley routinely look for an

eight in a street address, viewing it as an added value. Some try to have

their home address changed to include an eight. Others seek to rid a

number, such as a four--considered unlucky because it sounds like the

Chinese word for "death." Many pay to get as many eights as they can in

phone, fax and license numbers.



There is even a Chinese restaurant named 888 in Rosemead. Chinese

Yellow Pages for the San Gabriel Valley have more eight combinations than

one thought imaginable.



"If they get a phone number or a checking account with a lot of

eights, they're extremely happy," says Councilwoman Judy Chu of Monterey

Park, who is Chinese American.



Recently, when she opened an account at a Monterey Park bank, the bank

made sure it had many eights. "They thought I would be pleased," Chu says.



Next door in Alhambra, Raymond Cheng and his wife, Tina, have a lot of

eights between them.



His business phone is (818) 282-2828. His fax number: (818) 282-0283.


Their three cars--a Rolls-Royce, his and her Mercedes-Benzes--also have

ample sprinkling of the number eight. And, naturally, their home phone

and street address are sprinkled with eights. (His parents' Hong Kong

flat is on the 18th floor and the street number on their San Francisco

home is 18.)



Cheng, who serves on more than 10 civic and professional boards in

addition to owning a development company and a Chinese restaurant, won't

go so far as to say that the many eights in his life contributed to his

visible prosperity.



But his wife ventures: "All things being equal, an eight gives you

added confidence." After all, it's worked for Hong Kong.

One has to ask the question why has Hong Kong done so well in such a

little space? Cheng says.



"Hong Kong is a small island with no natural resource, and yet it is

one of the world's most important financial centers."

Here in Los Angeles, too, he lives with what he calls a "Hong Kong

syndrome."



Not long after opening his own company in 1983, Cheng won a contract

to remodel Los Angeles National Bank in Monterey Park.

"I had to complete everything in 2 1/2 months because the owner

absolutely said a grand opening would be on Aug. 8," Cheng recalls.



Working nights and weekends and getting a city inspector to come out

on a Saturday, Cheng made sure the bank had the grand opening on Aug. 8.



"There was no other reason except that the date signified good fortune

and prosperity," he says.

Daniel T.C. Liao, a ranking Taiwanese government official who served

as the director of the Chinese Cultural Center in El Monte, says the

belief follows wherever Chinese go.


JBmurc is also a big 8 fan and will only drive V8 cars

[Aussie]

2008 has come and gone. Gold held up very well while the mining shares got hammered. In fact, Gold did everything it was supposed to do no matter what the nay sayers tell you. Actually the physical metal did far better than "they" want you to know. The physical metal, if you can find it, is trading at a $100+ premium over COMEX. This is better than a 10% gain for the year while virtually all other assets crumbled with the exception of US Treasuries. Treasuries are living on borrowed time though as the Treasury is issuing literally $trillions more in supply with no end in sight. In any case, the metal of monarchs turned in a year that many could only have wished for.

So where to now? I believe 2009 will be the year that "spin no longer works". I truly believe that this coming year will be one of comeuppance for the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve. 2009 is shaping up as the year that the credit spigot will shut tight on further U.S. borrowings from the rest of the world. This shutdown may or may not be called a bankruptcy, though it matters not, Uncle Sam will be shut out and shut down. This will be THE year of divergence of those things real vs. those things paper. Some will even discover that what they thought was real, really was not, ie. ETF's, pooled accounts, etc.. UGLY is too pretty for what I am afraid 2009 holds in store.

If I am even half correct in what I expect 2009 to bring, civil unrest worldwide and in particular within the U.S. will be commonplace especially in the urban areas. This unrest will be a result of market and bank closures, those with "cash" will be disappointed that it will not spend for more than a couple weeks after the initial "banking holiday". Those with metal will be disappointed that "goods do not grow on shelves". while those with "goods" will be disappointed that they don't have more, or even enough. Putting it mildly, 2009 will be the year of disappointments. I come to the conclusion that 2009 will be the year of the fiscal and monetary train wreck that must come at the end of all fiat Ponzi schemes.

Why is this? Ponzi schemes all require more and more new capital to sustain prior entries, it is the same with "fiat" capitalism. Either more new debt and credit enters the system or the system will begin to deflate, this deflation is what kills off earlier entries into the system. It is either inflate or die until you can no longer inflate, then you die. We are there now. But what of hyperinflation? Don't worry, that is out there for 2009 also, probably very, very early in the year. Many have, and will, argue that deflation and hyperinflation are complete opposites and cannot exist together, I disagree completely. I envision much further deflation of assets in 2009 while the collapse of the $ will create $10 cups of coffee, [I'm not talking Starbucks either].

The deflation that surely will continue in 2009 will be massive in terms of Gold and to a lesser extent in Dollars, I also believe Gold will end 2009 at a minimum $1,600 per ounce and that is only IF the system holds together which I give odds of less than a coin flip of occurring. All bets are off when the banks close and Uncle Sam can no longer borrow, pick your wildest number for Gold and that will probably be too low, [2009 will probably be the year when you begin "counting ounces" as opposed to Dollars]. However, the hyperinflation side will be far worse to humanity than assets deflating, I say far worse because FOOD is the quintessential necessity and hyperinflation hurts the masses where it counts, in the belly. This, I believe, will be the catalyst for civil unrest, government response and thus conflict.

We stand in the doorway of food shortages for several reasons, first, a hyperinflation [currency run] causes hoarding and panic buying, second, what retailers have just experienced with inventory loans and the demand for COD payments will surely come to a grocery store near you, third, some farmers will not plant this year because crop prices have been pummeled by the commodity bust and can no longer make a profit, and fourth because of distribution bottlenecks. Distribution will be adversely affected by lack of credit, it already has in many retail industries. I wrote all about this potential "credit crunch" result early last year and it now appears to growing. Without credit, the umteen different "hand offs" from start to finish are affected and just like any chain, if one link breaks, the chain is no longer functional.

I don't like being the bearer of bad tidings or doom and gloom, but this is how I see it, I do not at this point see any possible escape from this "two headed 'flation' monster. The debt is already in place, the monetary and fiscal responses have been textbook, as one would expect, and yet still no traction. Unfortunately and unbelievably this appears to be the financial end of the greatest empire in Earth's history. Those who know me personally know that I do not say this with malice, I am speaking from my gut and hoping that those reading this will take all means to protect themselves and family. The bankruptcy of the US Treasury and Dollar is now imminent, is it Jan. 2009 or July 2010?, I have no idea. I would bet it will be sooner than later as only a fool would lend further funds at this point, and the U.S. Treasury "lives" on borrowed capital. The entire system as it turns out was a "con game", now that the "confidence" is gone we enter "game over". This "game" is really not a game, it is about the 6 billion souls living on the planet all of whom will suffer because of a long term banking scam centered in the U.S.

2008 was the year misdirection and illusions, next year, reality will hit you square between the eyes as things are so far over the edge that it will no longer be "spinnable". All along the spin has been deafening, "contained, sound, strong, no recession then mild recession, lower rates then 0% [yeah!], TARP and 22 other loan programs, $10 trillion from the Fed and Treasury, real estate is bottoming, V bottom then L bottom, and on and on. Nothing has worked, all the spin was just that, spin, the WHOLE THING HAS BEEN SPIN, IT IS ALL A PONZI SCHEME!!!

Individuals, banks, brokers, real estate, autos, insurance co's, municipalities, states, and even the federal government are all financially crippled with too much debt and no ability to service that debt, PLUS the money we use is untenable. What entity can possibly step in and fix this? I think the only possible remedy the rest of the world can take is to "change" the money. They must distance themselves from the Dollar or go down with it, I believe this also pertains to individuals. Either exit the Dollar arena or go down with it, pretty simple. Please do not take the upcoming year lightly as there will be a point in time where the public mindset will become one of "the boy who cried wolf" as it pertains to spin, reality will become all too apparent.

I wish everyone who encounters this missive the best of health, fortune, and luck in 2009, we will all need it.

Regards, Bill H.
Via LeMetropole Cafe

[Aussie]

. . . analysts currently aren't expecting a big rally or a big decline in gold over the next few years. By mid-year 2009, analysts are expecting gold to be at $825/ounce, which is less than $10 from its current price of $816. At the end of 2011, analysts expect gold to be down to $790, and then down to $762 by the end of 2012.

Analysts say one thing and know another. They work for investment banks that are insolvent and create lies and disinformation as a matter of everyday business practice.

I wish I had an once of gold for every time Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan have been bearish on gold, telling their clients to sell, while they do the opposite and load up. - then they reverse the play and make money on the unwind - all the time with their hand in their clients wallet.

These people have no vested interested in dealing in truth, because the truth is - their gig is up, it's only a matter of time.

[arco]

Aussie

I was recommending Gold as a buy here on Sharetrader circa 2001 when it was around $250. Most people thought I was mad, but I went ahead at that time and bought both gold and silver at bargain basement prices.

At some point around the same time I started a thread 'the looming American dollar disaster". This situation we are in now is something I have been conscious of and preparing for over a number of years.

My current opinion is precious metals should be part of your holding, but in this economic situation I feel more diversification may be required to cover any eventuality.

We do know things are bad globally but we dont know exactly what is going to happen for certain. Governments have the power and can do many things.

Be diversified, be nimble

[Aussie]

Aussie

I was recommending Gold as a buy here on Sharetrader circa 2001 when it was around $250. Most people thought I was mad, but I went ahead at that time and bought both gold and silver at bargain basement prices.

At some point around the same time I started a thread 'the looming American dollar disaster". This situation we are in now is something I have been conscious of and preparing for over a number of years.

My current opinion is precious metals should be part of your holding, but in this economic situation I feel more diversification may be required to cover any eventuality.

We do know things are bad globally but we dont know exactly what is going to happen for certain. Governments have the power and can do many things.

Be diversified, be nimble

Great advice, you were ahead of the times and have no doubt done extremely well in your gold position. Most people have no knowledge or understanding of the depth of the trouble that the world is in. I just want to be as prepared as I can be.