Good news Stories

[miner]

Depends where your looking,as have watched quiet a few drop 20-30 %,including one on the weekend that has just recently dropped in asking price by 25%,as for sections try a subdivision that started at 169k-187k(cheap compared to others) and are now down to 150k as only one has sold,each to there own.

Cheers
Miner

The above sections are now 126k,so another 24k saving,bummer for the guy that bought the first one last year tho.

Cheers
Miner

[upside_umop]

Yep, and it's about time. Not sure when the new system will start, but it's not too far away.

Already started my mushy friend.

http://apps.reinz.co.nz/reportingapp...rt&RFCODE=R100

I've had a brief look through my areas of interest, and yes...house prices have fallen in every single area that I've looked at.

- Ilam/Fendalton/Merivale




-Inside the 4 avenues




Will higher forward interest rates and threat of job losses keep pushing this market down??

[shambles]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/node/107301

[minimoke]

Already started my mushy friend.

Since this is the "good news" thread , in todays paper

"House prices in Christchurch could rise by nearly 14 per cent in a year and 25 per cent in three years, a new report says.


The report, by economic forecaster Infometrics for mortgage insurer QBE LMI, says lower interest rates, rising immigration and a shortage of new houses will boost the market.


It also expects prices to rise faster in Christchurch than in most other centres as the city had a larger price correction after the housing boom.


"People selling property in Christchurch appear to have been more willing to lower their asking price than in other regions," the report says.
Bank of New Zealand chief economist Tony Alexander said it was now reasonable to expect prices to rise.


"I think they [Infometrics] are on the right track. It pretty much tallies with what we see happening because of the housing shortage," he said.
Westpac chief economist Brendan O'Donovan expects price rises, although Infometrics' forecast of 25 per cent in three years could be "a stretch".

[minimoke]

I've had a brief look through my areas of interest, and yes...house prices have fallen in every single area that I've looked at.

Upside - thats the same set of REINZ data I've been using in all these posts for ages - theres nothing new there.

Heres another way of looking at your Merivale / Fendalton / Ilam / Strowan data which is also an area of interst for me.

What we see here is the median "values" coming down off their highs and bottoming out around Jan / Feb this year. From there we have seen increases from a low of $425,000 to the latest value of $487,500.

Thats a $62,500 INCREASE or an INCREASE of 14.8%

[upside_umop]

Since this is the "good news" thread , in todays paper

"House prices in Christchurch could rise by nearly 14 per cent in a year and 25 per cent in three years, a new report says.


The report, by economic forecaster Infometrics for mortgage insurer QBE LMI, says lower interest rates, rising immigration and a shortage of new houses will boost the market.


It also expects prices to rise faster in Christchurch than in most other centres as the city had a larger price correction after the housing boom.


"People selling property in Christchurch appear to have been more willing to lower their asking price than in other regions," the report says.
Bank of New Zealand chief economist Tony Alexander said it was now reasonable to expect prices to rise.


"I think they [Infometrics] are on the right track. It pretty much tallies with what we see happening because of the housing shortage," he said.
Westpac chief economist Brendan O'Donovan expects price rises, although Infometrics' forecast of 25 per cent in three years could be "a stretch".

Yeah, I saw that. I dont believe houses will fall much further/if at all. I may look to dip my toes in the market the end of this year/early next year.

Might even ask your opinion MM if you'll be happy to help...nothing like experience! You coming to the next ST meeting in early September?

[upside_umop]

Upside - thats the same set of REINZ data I've been using in all these posts for ages - theres nothing new there.

Heres another way of looking at your Merivale / Fendalton / Ilam / Strowan data which is also an area of interst for me.

What we see here is the median "values" coming down off their highs and bottoming out around Jan / Feb this year. From there we have seen increases from a low of $425,000 to the latest value of $487,500.

Thats a $62,500 INCREASE or an INCREASE of 14.8%

Isnt this the new 'stratified' data sets? I've never noticed it before...

Theres nothing new about the data, no. Its just that its split up into suburbs, where you can get a suburb by surburb view of whats happening in the market. As you can see, from the peak, house prices have definitely fallen and are alot more than $5k below their peak on average. When using the data set as a whole, the figures are skewed as mushy has been saying all along. Agree?

Things do look to be flattening out/slightly up in last few months. But look at the big picture...nice trend has developed since peak.

[minimoke]

Its just that its split up into suburbs,

The suburb data has been there for ages. I think what is new (but only because I haven't used it) is the 1 month, three month and 12 month medians. You can also use this data to find the averages in each suburb over time as well. Easier to export the data to excel and write a few formulas from there.

[minimoke]

IAs you can see, from the peak, house prices have definitely fallen and are alot more than $5k below their peak on average. When using the data set as a whole, the figures are skewed as mushy has been saying all along. Agree?

If we look at the trends we reached a peak in "values" around Nov '07 and those values then fell away. Well that was no surprise - values had to fall away at some stage. This was Bernard Hickeys "House values will fall 30%" era and it was all doom and gloom. Hence the reason for starting this thread - I reckoned it was never going to be as bad as the "pros" were making out and that we needed to be loking at the good stuff that was happening. What we can also see is a flattening off around the end of "08 begining of 09 and from there "values" have been increasing.

If we go back to Nov '07 we can probably carve off a few months data. Its probably fair to say the market overshot itself so the "highs" everyone refers to is probably an exagerated high - but still one that looked good in the media Everyone was going "oh, look at how much my house is worth now and I can borrow for the holiday home, rental preoperty and flat screen". They didn't realise that values do not go up all the time - they cycle up and down but the overall trend is up.

Nov 07 is not necessarily a good data anchor point though - which is why I've suggested we now anchor to Jan 09 figures as a starting point to measure growth - thats the good news perspective. And perhaps the start of a new cyclic wave.

But we shouldn't be expecting huge growth - thats unrealistic. And some people still seem to have unrealistic expectations. I wouldn't be paying, for example, $650k for a house on the old Sunnyside mental hospital site - but someone has high hopes!.

[The Great Gold Guru]

Have put in an offer on a 2 flat villa in Wanganui yesterday. Asking is $149,000 from a UK based seller . I have offered $130k cash with settlement next Friday. With NZD so strong vs the Pound I thought a really quick clean offer would be tempting. Vendor has come back at $133k but I am sticking at my number. Currently rents for $120pw each flat but agent agrees with me that a $5k makeover on each would get rent upto $150pw each very easily. Rates are nasty at $2700pa ( 2 dwellings ) but still currently cashflow positive at 100% gearing with interest rates at 6% ( TSB 5.99% 2yr fix ) ... spend the money on the renovation and she really starts humming.

Looking at No. 2 this afternoon in Onehunga ... talk that Auckland prices could rocket due to serious housing shortage over next 3 years. See article at www.nzherald.co.nz