Good news Stories

[boysy]

im not sure how much weight you can put in these numbers but surely the fundementals are still looking dire for the housing market. Sure supply is relatively fixed but demand is based upon many factors none of which are looking positive apart from lower mortgage rates. Facts are that people have less job security, banks are not willing to lend at previous levels higher deposits are required. People who belive otherwise are a bit in lala land i would not trust the REINZ comments and opinions as far as i could throw them and QV are sure putting a spin on their figures. Sure the housing market has fallen and the media will try and say the worst is over but buyer beware.

[minimoke]

In the past 17 years EVERY April has recorded less sales than the month before. There is about a 15% average drop in April compared with teh previous March.

Seven out of these 17 years has seen a drop off in price from the previous month. It seems we have a very well established trend that sales at this time of year fall away - and we know this is often due to the winter settling of the market where people tend to stay indoors rather than go shopping.

We should expect to see the REINZ report sales down for April 09 to be down as well. If the doom gllom merchants are to be believed I reckon number of sales for April have to be down by at least 20% and price has to be down as well. If number of sales are down less than 15% and if values increase then I think that wil be a very clear pointer that some people have missed the boat - but lets see what comes out in the next few days.

REINZ figures just out: Another 1.5% increase this month in value and sales dropped back only 7.2% on the previous month – when historically April sales drop back 15% from March sales. We are now looking at a 4.6% increase in values this year the third consecutive month of increased values.

[fungus pudding]

REINZ figures just out: Another 1.5% increase this month in value and sales dropped back only 7.2% on the previous month – when historically April sales drop back 15% from March sales. We are now looking at a 4.6% increase in values this year the third consecutive month of increased values.

The REINZ do not report values. They report the median sale price which naturally enough has risen because banks have tightened lending policies, and that's clobbered the first home/lower priced sales. With low sales numbers in the low price range the median will rise regardless of the average.

[minimoke]

The REINZ do not report values. They report the median sale price which naturally enough has risen because banks have tightened lending policies, and that's clobbered the first home/lower priced sales. With low sales numbers in the low price range the median will rise regardless of the average.

QV also report sale price and REINZ report average sales as well. If you want REINZ Average sale price you'll see that April was the third consecutive month of increased values.

[neopoleII]

in the meantime, the govt gets deeper into the red, and as the deficict balloons, cost cuts will come into play.......... one of the cost cuts will be the exorbandant cash thrown at the housing suppliment payouts given to benifisharies and low income workers to pay high rents on investment property rentals.
once the housing suppliment gets reduced, house prices will continue to fall, as they should, as they are still expensive for "medium" wage earners to afford, compared to the "average" wage earner.
there is some $15000 to $18000 difference between a medium wage earner and an average wage earner, and most kiwis fall into the medium bracket.


IMHO a $15hr factory worker should be able to buy/rent a house close to his factory without relying on the state to pay for his accomodation............

[fungus pudding]

QV also report sale price and REINZ report average sales as well. If you want REINZ Average sale price you'll see that April was the third consecutive month of increased values.

Nobody publishes values, although when it suits the REINZ put that spin on the median.
As far as I'm aware the REINZ have only publishlished the median for the last ten to fifteen years, and QV only publish the average. But regardless neither the median or the average have got anything to do with value. Both median and average can be rising while values are falling, and vice versa.

[minimoke]

Nobody publishes values, although when it suits the REINZ put that spin on the median.
As far as I'm aware the REINZ have only publishlished the median for the last ten to fifteen years, and QV only publish the average. But regardless neither the median or the average have got anything to do with value. Both median and average can be rising while values are falling, and vice versa.

Is value not the agreed price between a willing buyer and a willing seller. REINZ has 17 years of data - of which they gernally report the median. But you can extraoplate an average if you want. What we are seein g with REINZ is a reversal of a trend and begingin to see it with QVs trailing three month average. What I don't understand is how the doom gloom people happily accept QV and REINZ data when the trend is falling but quiter on the reversal.. We've now got Hickey coming out saying the develuations wil occur in a non-linear manner

[fungus pudding]

Is value not the agreed price between a willing buyer and a willing seller. REINZ has 17 years of data - of which they gernally report the median. But you can extraoplate an average if you want. What we are seein g with REINZ is a reversal of a trend and begingin to see it with QVs trailing three month average. What I don't understand is how the doom gloom people happily accept QV and REINZ data when the trend is falling but quiter on the reversal.. We've now got Hickey coming out saying the develuations wil occur in a non-linear manner

Yes - value is the price between two willing parties. You cannot work out the average from the median, and neither the average or median tells you the increase or decrease in value. If all properties fall in value by say 20%, and the low end stops or slows (as it will when values fall) then the median will rise, the average will probably rise and your money will buy a better property than it would have previously because values have fallen. An extremely good indication of what the market is doing is to look at the number of properties on the market that are sticking. That's another thing that is distorted with 'days on market' quoted by the REINZ. It only relates to days on market of the ones that actually sell; even then those figures are often rubbish, because there is no way of checking each agents returns as far as days on market are concerned. At the moment there are heaps of unsold properties throughout the country. There are huge numbers of properties that have been withdrawn waiting for better times. The market is still depressed.

[minimoke]

Yes - value is the price between two willing parties. You cannot work out the average from the median, and neither the average or median tells you the increase or decrease in value. If all properties fall in value by say 20%, and the low end stops or slows (as it will when values fall) then the median will rise, the average will probably rise and your money will buy a better property than it would have previously because values have fallen. An extremely good indication of what the market is doing is to look at the number of properties on the market that are sticking. That's another thing that is distorted with 'days on market' quoted by the REINZ. It only relates to days on market of the ones that actually sell; even then those figures are often rubbish, because there is no way of checking each agents returns as far as days on market are concerned. At the moment there are heaps of unsold properties throughout the country. There are huge numbers of properties that have been withdrawn waiting for better times. The market is still depressed.

One of the other things why I like the REINZ data is that it does give me averages as well as the median. Granted, it doesn’t give me days on market before properties are pulled – but I’m not aware of any data source that does. Nor I am I aware of any data source that ever has – so there is little point in looking at this data if it doesn’t exist in any meaningful way. Even though you may not like the “days on market” data – at least it is data from which we can draw conclusions.

So the good news, for those that prefer “Average“ data is that April figure averages are the highest they have been in 10 months and there has been month on month increase since a low was hit in Jan ‘09. Since then values have risen $22.5k or 6.1%. Values off the Nov 07 high show a drop of $24k of 5.7% nowhere near the 30% or 40% the doom gloom people have been banging about for the past few years. If we want to use Shrewdy’s price point from the other thread he would have seen a 5.1% increase in value or $19k.

For properties to sell they have to be made available to the market. We can see that compared with the same time last year there was a 39.5% increase in the number of sales and one of the highest selling months in the past 17 months. Days on market may not be a preferred indicator but they did drop 4.5% compared with the same period last year and the fastest turn around in the past 12 months. And thats all got to be good news.

[fungus pudding]

One of the other things why I like the REINZ data is that it does give me averages as well as the median. Granted, it doesn’t give me days on market before properties are pulled – but I’m not aware of any data source that does. Nor I am I aware of any data source that ever has – so there is little point in looking at this data if it doesn’t exist in any meaningful way. Even though you may not like the “days on market” data – at least it is data from which we can draw conclusions.

So the good news, for those that prefer “Average“ data is that April figure averages are the highest they have been in 10 months and there has been month on month increase since a low was hit in Jan ‘09. Since then values have risen $22.5k or 6.1%. Values off the Nov 07 high show a drop of $24k of 5.7% nowhere near the 30% or 40% the doom gloom people have been banging about for the past few years. If we want to use Shrewdy’s price point from the other thread he would have seen a 5.1% increase in value or $19k.

For properties to sell they have to be made available to the market. We can see that compared with the same time last year there was a 39.5% increase in the number of sales and one of the highest selling months in the past 17 months. Days on market may not be a preferred indicator but they did drop 4.5% compared with the same period last year and the fastest turn around in the past 12 months. And thats all got to be good news.

You are confusing sale price which is the reported figure, with value. They are the same when analysing only one sale, but when looking at the whole market it tells you absolutely nothing about value. What you should ask is will xyz property sell for the same price? more? less? than it did 12 - 24 months ago. Generally prices are weaker, so while the median has risen in many areas your money will now buy you a better property than it would have. The dungers which were fetching good money during the hot market are now difficult to sell and there is more activity further up the price ladder, so average and median rise - value falls.