Good news Stories

[minimoke]

You are confusing sale price which is the reported figure, with value.

No – I’m aware of the limitations of the data. But a bigger problem is taking hard data (like the sale price of a single property 12 months ago) and then trying to come up with a “valuation” of that property today. A valuer can put a whole pile of variables into the mix and come up with a number – but is by no means assured that the number he comes up with is what the property will sell for given there is actually a willing buyer and seller. Indeed most valuers will not give an absolute value – they will give a range.

The other problem we have is the number of housing stock that turns over within in a 12 month period. As a nation we don’t turn our properties over every 12 months so it is near on impossible to come up with those sorts of comparisons. And it would be a long bow to draw to say, where there are examples of a single property tuning over in 12 months, that this could be extrapolated to the whole market.

A final problem we have is that we don’t have the whole data set. I don’t know where the properties were selling in say $5k bands so I can’t make comparisons of say sales in the $300 - $305k band. If someone has that data and can add to the thread then that would be great. Other wise we are talking around figures we simply don’t have.

I guess my main point is that in times of a declining market the doom gloom people have been happy to point to the QV and REINZ data to support their position. If that’s the case they should be able to use the same data and come up with a view. Except they are not because the data isn’t telling them the story they want to tell. And lets not forget in the boom times it was the QV and REINZ data that people looked at to tell stories of a fantastic property market.

[miner]

I don't look at any of the stuff you do Mini BUT what I have done for my area is keep all the reality mags for years and that gives me all the info you say is not available and believe me there are lots that have been on for years and in that time have only been going one way DOWN,one's that have been pulled and put back on as new listings,or just pulled,all the price reductions from 20-50%,basically all the dirty tricks they do I can see.

So NOTHING to do with doom and gloom,just not in denial as some are,so all GOOD news and NO rush to buy for now,will leave you to talk yourself out of what I have just said.

Cheers
miner

[minimoke]

The dungers which were fetching good money during the hot market are now difficult to sell and there is more activity further up the price ladder, so average and median rise - value falls.

From todays news:
With both volume and median sale price of houses changing this month, economists are saying the property market - a leading indicator of the whole New Zealand economy - is slowly improving. T his slow turn-around was the market responding to the very low interest rates being offered, Deutsche Bank spokesman Darren Gibbs said.
However, he wondered if the recovery would progress further in 2009, given the general weakness of the rest of the economy -- though the bank was expecting a five percent month-on-month rise for May, he said.
Also, the sales figures hinted at a possible imminent construction boom, he said.
"When NZ was last turning over 6500 houses per month, new construction was running at 24,000 consents annualised, versus 12,000 currently," he said.
The rebounding activity strengthened Goldman Sachs's opinion domestic demand will increase through the second half of 2009, he said.
House sales continued to be strongest in the under $400,000 price bracket, accounting for nearly 4000 of the total April sales

[minimoke]

From todays news:

Also, the sales figures hinted at a possible imminent construction boom, he said.

And on that point – more sections sold in April than in any of the previous 13 months, time on market has dropped back for the 3rd month in a row and average price has increased from last month. And median value only down 0.60% off the Nov 07 high.

[fungus pudding]

And on that point – more sections sold in April than in any of the previous 13 months, time on market has dropped back for the 3rd month in a row and average price has increased from last month. And median value only down 0.60% off the Nov 07 high.

The good news is that soon the REINZ will begin using a new formula for price reporting, which I believe has been promoted by the reserve bank to circumvent the misunderstanding, as evidenced in this thread, by quoting medians and averages.

[minimoke]

The good news is that soon the REINZ will begin using a new formula for price reporting, which I believe has been promoted by the reserve bank to circumvent the misunderstanding, as evidenced in this thread, by quoting medians and averages.

Dang - that will surely make previous period comparrisons harder won't it!. At least with REINZ data you can see the median and work out the averages. I'd imagine with the slow down in property sales Real Estate agents are probably conducting more of the proerty sales than in the peak of the cycle when there might have been more private sale and off market transactions. I reckon their figures are fine - as long as they are used knowing their limitations. Hopefully QV will publish and make accessible the depth of data REINZ does - that might make things more intersting!.

[fungus pudding]

Dang - that will surely make previous period comparrisons harder won't it!. At least with REINZ data you can see the median and work out the averages.

Once again. It is not possible to work out the average price by only knowing the median. Full stop.

[minimoke]

Once again. It is not possible to work out the average price by only knowing the median. Full stop.

Funguspudding - unless maths has changed recently I thought that if you took total $ value sales and divided by the number of sales you'de come up with average sale price. So if I have total sales of $2,451,424,305 and 6,210 sales I end up with an average of $394,754. Doesn't mean to say the mean still can't be $340,000. When you come to correting my math (which I welcome as I'm always ready to learn) would you mind using a larger font because the bolding just doesn't do it for me.

[minimoke]

Real estate firm Barfoot & Thompson says May saw its best month's trading in more than two years in the Auckland housing market.



Barfoot, which handles around one third of home sales in Auckland, sold 814 homes in May, 1 percent higher than sales in April, and 58.1 percent higher than in May last year.


Managing director Peter Thompson said May was the best month's trading in more than two years in terms of achieving both high volume and high prices. However, he said there were a low number of homes available for sale.





"It was also the third consecutive month when we sold more than 800 homes, a target we never achieved once last year," he added.
Barfoot said the average sale price for a home was $533,909 in May, a 12-month high. This was a 6.2 percent increase from the average April 2009 price and essentially level with prices in May last year.


He said there was a noticeable increase in demand for homes in more established suburbs and it added up to a housing market that was "active, confident and stable."

[minimoke]

In news today from QV.


The residential property market showed "considerable improvement" in May as values stabilised, latest figures from QV Valuations show.


That was a considerable improvement on the 9.2 percent decline reported for the year to April, and was the second month in a row where the year-on-year change had improved, QV said.


This improvement is due to continued stabilisation of property values in recent months, and contrasts significantly to a market that was declining sharply 12 months ago."


The QV figures support recent upbeat reports from the real estate industry.


QV spokeswoman Glenda Whitehead said established investors were now back in the market, along with first home buyers and those looking to upgrade.


Property values in all main centres increased slightly in recent months.