Darryl Guppy

[wbosher]

I've just finished reading Guppy's "Trend Trading" book. Has anyone used GMMA and the techniques mentioned in this book successfully??

I'm a complete novice who has read a few books and so far this one seems to make quite a lot of sense. It doesn't look like it will provide massive returns but 20 or 30% per successful trade will suite me fine.

Any advice will be very much appreciated. Cheers.

[Jay]

Read a couple of his books.
Use the GMMA as one of the explorers in Metastock to filter for stocks to look at.
However, it can fire a little late sometimes.
Don't usually use it as an exit - not on its own anyway as again it can be slow to fire.

[wbosher]

He say's to use a close below the trend line, along with the GMMA, to signal an exit. He seems to favour taking "bites" from the middle of trends rather than trying to time bottoms and tops. Seems to be a fairly safe way to do things...several bites could add up to quite a bit.

He also seems to like using the count back line as a stop loss, any opinions on that?

[AMR]

I read about the GMMA in another book, Active investor by Alan Hull. He applies it for longer term active investing or what most people would call buy and hold and on blue chips only. He also combined it with another indicator (rate of annualised return) and used it for sell signals.

Absolute Advance on here used it for short term trading but discarded it I believe. Where are you AA?

[wbosher]

From what I understand Allan Hull created HMMA which is designed for weekly analysis, the GMMA by Guppy is designed for daily use. I may be wrong but that's what I've heard.

Any opinion on the use of the count back line for a stop loss?

[airedale]

I have found the count back line to be useful in helping to identify turning points...particularly bottoms.

[Phaedrus]

Since Guppy's approach appeals to you, WB, I suggest you start by using his techniques. Initially, stick religiously to his system. Do not deviate from it one iota. See if you have the discipline that this would require. If you can't follow his rules, you won't be able to stick to any other system either - and the sharemarket is not for you. Guppy's systems are sound and would make a very good starting point for you. In time, you will find that you will have added extra components to it and perhaps dropped others. You will have begun the long process of developing your own system.

Your seeking of other peoples opinion of his "count back line" as a Sell signal sounds to me as though you are looking for a "recommended" exit indicator. There isn't one. Most people end up running several in parallel. You should too. Not that you will act on them, of course - you are sticking to his system, remember! You will, however, see what works well for you and what doesn't. You will eventually drop the ones that don't suit you and incorporate the ones that do into your very own unique trading system.

WB, don't waste time trying to find some sort of consensus here on ST. It's never going to happen. Peoples aims, expectations, circumstances, abilities, knowledge, skills, experience and risk tolerance are too widely varied for that.

I hate to break this to you WB, but you are on your own in an uncaring world and have to do the hard yards all by yourself. Nobody else can do them for you.

All the best!

PS: Don't ignore fundamentals. At the very least you should be able to read a balance sheet.

[wbosher]

I suggest you start by using his techniques. Initially, stick religiously to his system. Do not deviate from it one iota.

Thanks Phaedrus, I'll do that. Not sure whether to jump in now, or wait for a few more months...but I guess nobody really knows that.

Thanks for your advice, very much appreciated.

[airedale]

I have read one of Guppy's books. He is a skilled professional trader, but his style is not suitable for me. But he is a respected author and trader.
One of his self deprecating jokes is that even with all his experience, he still considers himself " just a guppy among the sharks" .

[Jay]

Good Post Phaedrus.
Agree - each to his own and no doubt wbosher, you will develop your own variation over time.