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  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Doctor View Post
    its a different ballgame now and for the forseeable future...a paradigm shift in residential property as an investment vehicle delivering cap gain.

    I nearly broke my neck tripping over the ambiguity ....do you mean for the foreseeable future it will return to delivering capital gains; or do you mean it will no longer be seen as a capital gain investment?

  2. #17
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    Default yes..

    it was verbose...the 2nd scenario....no more cap gain.
    \"death&taxes t.o.s.b\"

  3. #18
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    Default nickle

    Now is the time to stick to your knitting
    Get back into the commodity stocks macdunk
    Nickle stocks are going bullistic
    The bull market in realestate is well and truly over - it will be 5-10 yrs before you'll get good cap gains in realestate again
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  4. #19
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    Default Give me land, lots of land ...

    Quote Originally Posted by duncan macgregor View Post
    The economy is in dire straights with the only likely out come being, high inflation. To take advantage of this .. (sic) ..left is property.
    What ever eventuates will see property as todays wisest investment.
    Macdunk
    Totally agree. Well mostly - The dire straights bit is a little strong. But the flat out inflation will eventuate, (By the way - my daughter has a Zimbabwe Trillion dollar note - proof positive of what extreme quantitative easing does). Anyway, dust off your pocket calculators folks - there are cash positive properties out there now. Inflation is going to rip the bottom out of value of borrowed money and real increases in property is going to make even the dopiest investor appear to be a total genius.
    As the world turns to schist because of population pressure and all the slings and arrows that goes with it - - lifeboat NZ is going to have strong immigration… and they ain't making any more land.

    I've got my snout in the trough - - suggest you do too.

    (Still holding and increasing equities, McDunk - they will be stellar too).

    (Hardly got any cash - all cash will do a Zimbabwe this or next year.. I might have enough to buy this weeks' groceries - but that's all I need)

  5. #20
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    Default still...

    PLENTY of land in NZ...very low pop density...Mr Cropper.
    \"death&taxes t.o.s.b\"

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Doctor View Post
    PLENTY of land in NZ...very low pop density...Mr Cropper.
    Not necessarily good land though. Take the new residential going up around Marshlands - now I wonder why they call it that. Or Pegasus town - being built on one great big sand pit.

  7. #22
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    'Plenty of land", -Doctor,
    'Not necessarily good land' -Minimoke.

    Both true.

    Even if NZ went to 'only' 8 million people - that's still low, but the price per acre was low to start with and then going to only some small fraction of Tokio prices still brings a high proportional yield - the usual thing input cost vs return.

    And then again - a lot of NZ is swamp, mountain, scree slope, terminal moraine, flood area, sunken ria, or fjord.

    From memory, NZ is about 15 people per sq km, UK is 620 odd - - but I can't see the UK going from 620 to 1240 per sq km without a truck load of trouble, whereas it wouldn't be too much of a stretch to imagine NZ going to 30 per sq km. About 8 million people wouldn't be an insane proposition(?)

    PS - When I was born in (mumble mumble) I think the population was around 1.5 million - it's a bigger jump to 4 million since then.

    Errata:

    The population density for the UK is 'only' 426 - not the 620 I took off the top of my head stated above. Sorry folks for not checking figures before chucking them all over the net.
    (Still doesn't change the basic story though).
    Last edited by Casa del Energia; 21-05-2009 at 09:46 AM. Reason: Errata

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Casa del Energia View Post

    Even if NZ went to 'only' 8 million people -.
    I'm with Dunc on this thread - but lets not get too excited. The number of households is projected to increase from 1.55m in '06 to 2.09 in 2031. But thats around the max projection with population tapering off a bit after that.

  9. #24
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    Default And just to drive the message home..

    From the NZ Herald:

    "Migrant growth could mean good news for property market , say economists.
    A migrant-driven boost for the New Zealand property market is being tipped by economists studying new visitor arrival numbers released this morning. "

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10573704

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    But thats around the max projection with population tapering off a bit after that.
    Do you know why this is? I saw a graph the other day that showed at around 2050 or something population declining from it's peak, and I couldn't figure out why population would start decreasing. I guess it could be scarce resources constraining the population?
    Last edited by axion; 21-05-2009 at 06:02 PM.

  11. #26
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    in the meantime, people are losing their jobs, or wages are frozen,
    and houses are still out of reach of most younger buyers.
    it still takes hubby and wifey working really hard on good money to purchace a house.

    still lots...... if not most young people unable to afford their first home.
    govt is getting into the red big time, so housing suppliments (rent payments) will be targeted at some stage.
    house prices going up?
    i wonder who is buying them?
    speculators jumping in hoping to beat a dead market..........
    untill an average worker can buy an average house close to his or her factory, like all the 40 year old plus folks could do 10 - 15 years ago, property is/ will be out of reach for all but the rental investors, and the older generation that bought when homes were affordable for the average worker.

    sooner or later the oldies have to sell, and the new generation have only so much buying power.

    disc........
    begining the process of adding 120sqm to our house......
    suppliers and tradesmen are bending over backwards to offer great deals.
    looking forward to seeing the final build costs.

  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by axion View Post
    Do you know why this is? I saw a graph the other day that showed at around 2050 or something population declining from it's peak, and I couldn't figure out why population would start decreasing. I guess it could be scarce resources constraining the population?
    I'd have to recheck - but something along the lines that the breeding generations aren't producing enough kids and there is a wave of people coming through who will be dying around then. Immigration isn't expected to make up the balance.

    As a bit of an aside it is this, and other governments aim to keep the aging population out of the healthcare system. This measn that as we get older we will have to stay in our homes (and not vacate them to go to old folks homes and hospitals). Its likely we'll also have to house our Careres who will live with us - or will want accomodation nearby - so this will keep demand for housing up particular those properties which are "elderly friendly".

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    As a bit of an aside it is this, and other governments aim to keep the aging population out of the healthcare system. This measn that as we get older we will have to stay in our homes (and not vacate them to go to old folks homes and hospitals). Its likely we'll also have to house our Careres who will live with us - or will want accomodation nearby - so this will keep demand for housing up particular those properties which are "elderly friendly".
    I think Ryman might argue with that....

  14. #29
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    Default yes..

    more 'immigrants'....an increase in the refugee quota will definately boost the housing market!
    \"death&taxes t.o.s.b\"

  15. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Doctor View Post
    more 'immigrants'....an increase in the refugee quota will definately boost the housing market!
    Is that a sarcastic comment?

    I personally know a number of refugees in NZ who have worked from nothing to owning a portfolio of investment properties. In fact, one refugee I know now owns a property portfolio of over 30 residential houses.

    Refugees tend to work much hard and save more. They keep a low profile and are usually under the radar.
    Last edited by Dr_Who; 22-05-2009 at 10:52 AM.
    Having got ourselves into a debt-induced economic crisis, the only permanent way out is to reduce the debt – either directly by abolishing large slabs of it, or indirectly by inflating it away.

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