Now is the time to buy property

[The Doctor]

he get a $27,000 kickstart from the gummint to fund his foray into property speculation?

[Dr_Who]

he get a $27,000 kickstart from the gummint to fund his foray into property speculation?

Nope. These guys come over here with nothing and starts working 2-3 jobs to build up some savings. With their hard earned savings they start a small business and/or invest their money. After a number of years they become successful and build up a nice little investment portfolio. With the capital base and businesses they create wealth and jobs for NZers.

Most refugees dont need handouts. They came from nothing and understand the importances of hard work. They value an opportunity and they will not lose this opportunity to create a life for themselves and their family. Most people fail to see this.

[lakedaemonian]

Is that a sarcastic comment?

I personally know a number of refugees in NZ who have worked from nothing to owning a portfolio of investment properties. In fact, one refugee I know now owns a property portfolio of over 30 residential houses.

Refugees tend to work much hard and save more. They keep a low profile and are usually under the radar.

Couldn't agree more with one particular refugee I know.

He's an Afghani taxi cab owner, working his @ss off and reinvesting it all and reinvesting it prudently.

Starting with absolutely NOTHING 8 years ago, he's doing quite well for himself......successfully self-employed, NZ citizenship, married, making babies, and clearly an enthusiastic member of Team NZ.

He's like a couple of South Africans I know....except he doesn't whinge as much

If only every refugee and migrant NZ receives were made of the same stern stuff!

[Crypto Crude]

mackdunk-BRUT Only a fool gambles on what mortgage rates will do when it comes to risk in the business world. Always and i mean always do the numbers sometimes you win some times you lose but you never risk being in the position of looking at a losing position bankrupting you to try and time the market. Come back in three years time it might be you with a 20% mortgage

You make some good points in that post mackdunk, but I am very very skeptical of NZ ever having super high interest rates/inflation, (ever again)...
The Policy targets agreement PTA, has made major in roads since the early 1990's...
I know you say " never say never"... well...
If you have studied NZ Economic history like I have, then I bet you would not post like that

whats that, you saying to never risk being in a losing position bankrupting yourself...?
thats what investing for a newbie a few years ago would have done mackdunk...

mackdunk-The economy is in dire straights with the only likely out come being, high inflation. To take advantage of this depressed market, and low interest rates means that now is the time to lock in for as long as you can get, that mortgage, at these low rates

I thought the time to lock it in was two years ago at 10% ?
hehehehehehe...

.^sc

[Halebop]

...but I am very very skeptical of NZ ever having super high interest rates/inflation, (ever again)...
The Policy targets agreement PTA, has made major in roads since the early 1990's...
I know you say " never say never"... well...
If you have studied NZ Economic history like I have, then I bet you would not post like that

We are just about to begin the next inflationary cycle. It's predictable because it is tied to demographics. Retirement and birth bubbles drive inflation because these two demographics put pressure on taxation and non or delayed productive expenditures. While we pay new hospitals, schools, retirement benefits etc we put pressures on a proportionately smaller taxable pool. The typical solution is to raise tax rates. But because that tax money is being spent on the very old and the very young, there is little immediate productive benefit. With the baby boomers we enjoyed the reverse of this once they had finished with school and university. This is why economic growth, investment, productivity growth, tax rates and inflation all came under control after the late 80s - the boomers had all joined the work force and started consuming and investing in earnest.

For economic historians the trend between demographic cycles and economic cycles is compelling for at least the last two hundred years (basically since we started getting better at documenting economics and demographics).

The output from the looming cycle will be lower real growth, progressively higher taxation, declining productivity growth (god help NZ here), lower investment returns, government deficitis, higher inflation.

At present most of the Boomers are still working (Current economic recession aside). From demographics we know that work force participation begins to decline at age 55 and goes into terminal nose dive at 65. The mid point of the Baby boom is now about age 53.5. The oldest Baby Boomers are 63. Guess how long before the pressure really comes on?

[Jay]

You make some good points in that post mackdunk, but I am very very skeptical of NZ ever having super high interest rates/inflation, (ever again)...
The Policy targets agreement PTA, has made major in roads since the early 1990's...
I know you say " never say never"... well...
If you have studied NZ Economic history like I have, then I bet you would not post like that

whats that, you saying to never risk being in a losing position bankrupting yourself...?
thats what investing for a newbie a few years ago would have done mackdunk...




I thought the time to lock it in was two years ago at 10% ?
hehehehehehe...

.^sc

A lot thought rates would not go as high as they did, but looked what happened and how fast they retreated and then the longer rates shot back up again.

Let's hope you are right SC.

Rates coming off a low OCR and maybe to go lower, but the OCR does not have as much influence as it use to in these times.

[Crypto Crude]

We are just about to begin the next inflationary cycle. It's predictable because it is tied to demographics. Retirement and birth bubbles drive inflation because these two demographics put pressure on taxation and non or delayed productive expenditures. While we pay new hospitals, schools, retirement benefits etc we put pressures on a proportionately smaller taxable pool. The typical solution is to raise tax rates. But because that tax money is being spent on the very old and the very young, there is little immediate productive benefit. With the baby boomers we enjoyed the reverse of this once they had finished with school and university.This is why economic growth, investment, productivity growth, tax rates and inflation all came under control after the late 80s - the boomers had all joined the work force and started consuming and investing in earnest.
For economic historians the trend between demographic cycles and economic cycles is compelling for at least the last two hundred years (basically since we started getting better at documenting economics and demographics).
The output from the looming cycle will be lower real growth, progressively higher taxation, declining productivity growth (god help NZ here), lower investment returns, government deficitis, higher inflation.
At present most of the Boomers are still working (Current economic recession aside). From demographics we know that work force participation begins to decline at age 55 and goes into terminal nose dive at 65. The mid point of the Baby boom is now about age 53.5. The oldest Baby Boomers are 63. Guess how long before the pressure really comes on?

Halebop
that was a thought provoking post...
I think that post is mostly Right and a few points wrong, or at least it doesnt all add up...
Inflation came under control in the late 1980's 1990's because of The Policy Targets Agreement (alone)... Demographics had little to do with it...
I would like to show you why, but I cant remember my password for Flickr.com to post my home made charts...

The make up of Inflation is much more than just Demographics...
ok lets start at the beginning...
Inflation is made up of many different factors... macroeconomic policy, Monetary policy, and yes demographics... if Demographics were so important of inflation then how come Statistics New Zealand only predict 22% of the population will be over 65 in 2030?
...
..
.

If you think about this on a basic level, inflation is a function of supply and demand framework, excess supply, excess demand...Its a process where consumers bid for goods and services in the market place... Through this process, consumers send signals to producers on how much to supply and at what price etc...
This is inflation at its finest...
comsumers basically bid up/down the price of goods and services through their consumption...
Halebop,
I agree that the next cycle will be higher inflation, (not out of control inflation)... I dont understand your logic behind why?... you are saying that baby boomers in retirement is inflationary, but I dont see it like that because they are putting less pressure on inflation as they are not bidding up prices of goods and services... but they are putting more pressure on the public sector... so there is clearly some cancellation.... as to the extent, Im not sure...
in your post you are saying that while baby boomers were studying at school and Uni, there was pressure on inflation, and when they entered the real World it came under control...If you think about what I've said, then something does not add up?

heres another post..

mackdunk said this yesterday

We are about to get into a high inflation period later in the year so interesting times old buddy

first of all Mackdunk...
what do you define as high inflation...
5%? 10% 15%?

anyway,
This post could not be more wrong...(this year, and next year anyway)....

I have said this before...
After many years of speculators profiteering from NZ's closed economy, the PTA was all about open, fully disclosed markets, so that speculators could not control for example the exchange rate under fixed exchange rate targeting...
Here in NZ we now have the most open Central Bank in the World...
So mackdunk, all I can say to you, is to read the last OCR statement on 30th April... rbnz.govt.nz
and in that announcement it clearly says.............................
.........................
hehehe... go read it mackdunk...

.^sc

[Dr_Who]

Those that have been going around to open homes, auctions and negotiated for a property recently would have noticed that the houses in the good areas of Auckland have been snapped up at a premium to the CV.

Open your eyes and you will see.

[duncan macgregor]

SHREWDY, You missed your chance to get one foot on the ladder with a low deposit.
Like so many other people i met in the past you are now forced to throw your money away paying rent, bleating on about how tomorrow will be a better time to buy. All those people in the past lived to regret missing their first opportunity. You will in the future wil regret missing yours.
NZ is in a bad way, Factories relocating overseas, America reintroducing subsidies to farmers, which will be followed by the more enlightened countries to protect their industries. Interest rates will sky rocket the NZ share market will end up a big nothing the only thing left holding its worth is property for all the people coming back to retire.
Macdunk

[Arbitrage]

Duncan,
Sounds like you will be leaving the country soon. You forget to mention that NZ is a small nimble economy with an educated population. Read page A2 of this mornings herald and you will see previous doom and gloom merchants (previous finance ministers) chanting a similar mantra to yours. Thank goodness many of us have a positive and entrepreneurial attitude to living in this country and striving to make the future better for all of us.