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  1. #16
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    That is why IR will not go up JB or go up very slowly

  2. #17
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Default I don't think the banks or pour Govt will be ale to stop core rates heading higher

    Alan Greenspan, former Federal Reserve chairman. Alan Greenspan: Interest rates on government bonds have never been lower
    8:04 AM ET Fri, 4 Aug 2017 | 01:44
    Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan issued a bold warning Friday that the bond market is on the cusp of a collapse that also will threaten stock prices.

    In a CNBC interview, the longtime central bank chief said the prolonged period of low interest rates is about to end and, with it, a bull market in fixed income that has lasted more than three decades.

    "The current level of interest rates is abnormally low and there's only one direction in which they can go, and when they start they will be rather rapid," Greenspan said on "Squawk Box."

    That low interest rate environment has been the product of current monetary policy at the institution he helmed from 1987-2006. The Fed took its benchmark rate to near zero during the financial crisis and kept it there for seven years after.

    Since December 2015, the Fed has approved four rate hikes, but government bond yields remained mired near record lows.

    Greenspan did not criticize the policies of the current Fed. But he warned that the low rate environment can't last forever and will have severe consequences once it ends.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/04/gree...est-rates.html
    People don't have ideas, ideas have people

  3. #18
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    Latest issue out, a good read for any one a little nervous about the current correction. One recco is a house builder in USA,they are short houses there too

  4. #19
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    Latest issue out covers a very broad range of sectors and industries with great global overview, its free.

    "Construction is expected to be a major contributor over the next few years, with the 2017 construction pipeline report (prepared by the Building Research Association of New Zealand and Pacifecon) projecting $310 billion of work between 2015 and 2022, of which $177.8 billion is in residential property, $65.7 billion in non-residential building, and $66.2 billion in infrastructure. The government has also signaled that it expects to spend $42 billion over the next five years, led by the KiwiBuild programme."
    The IMF has an optimistic view of New Zealand's economy, forecasting growth to stay at around 3%



  5. #20
    Guru peat's Avatar
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    yeh I was a little surprised at the overall view of optimism from the latest report. but it is a great read - very well put together using a variety of sources.

  6. #21
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    Not so optimistic now
    google global news nz
    Last edited by Joshuatree; 17-10-2018 at 09:40 AM.

  7. #22
    Gnawing on Bones Beagle's Avatar
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    Yes he's getting a little "Grizzly Bearish" The Don seems determined to stir up trouble wherever and whenever. Choppy waters ahead ?
    I continue to hold a very high cash allocation...has been in the 40-50% portfolio allocation level for several months now and see no reason to be less cautious going forward.
    Last edited by Beagle; 12-07-2018 at 05:59 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

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