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  1. #21
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    Not so optimistic now
    google global news nz
    Last edited by Joshuatree; 17-10-2018 at 10:40 AM.

  2. #22
    Possum in the headlights Beagle's Avatar
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    Yes he's getting a little "Grizzly Bearish" The Don seems determined to stir up trouble wherever and whenever. Choppy waters ahead ?
    I continue to hold a very high cash allocation...has been in the 40-50% portfolio allocation level for several months now and see no reason to be less cautious going forward.
    Last edited by Beagle; 12-07-2018 at 06:59 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  3. #23
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    Latest issue just out, a no surprises emphasis on the bearish.

  4. #24
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    Latest issue out surprise surprise quite bullish.Not addressing global warming in any way unfortunately except ways to make money out of it, yeah right , tui ,Ryder.

  5. #25
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    156th issue out , 34 pages in-depth summary of Global, country, Commodities , Reccoes etc

    "Our current thesis for the share market is that there will be short-term weakness from political events (Trump trade wars and Brexit) but it will rally towards year-end, as central banks create more liquidity and the global economy starts to recover."

    .www.globalnews.co.nz



  6. #26
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    Last issue of the year out with reccos, A great read for anyone active/interested in Equities.

  7. #27
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    quite a categorical statement from him
    "the bond market has peaked"
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  8. #28
    Possum in the headlights Beagle's Avatar
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    Good read.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  9. #29
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    Been putting out weekly letters lately

    www.globalnews.co.nz

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Been putting out weekly letters lately

    www.globalnews.co.nz
    and apologising for his gloominess.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  11. #31
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    While sitting out atm.

  12. #32
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    its worth quoting todays email from John Ryder.

    The Australian Financial Review describes the crisis as: "The biggest economic disaster since the depression of the 1930s" - and yet the equity market,after an initial collapse, continues to be positive... courtesy of governmentand central bank initiatives. It is unusual for share market melt-downs to havea V-shaped recovery, as they tend to re-test lows a number of times. Prices arestill high in traditional (average) terms, and (at this level) will beexcessive when future earnings are reported.

    and a little funny at the end

    There is misery everywhere. In London, wealthy families are studying Housekeeping 101, as butlers and housekeepers self-isolate at home.



    ​ John is definitely one whose views should not be dismissed
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  13. #33
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    Today just as good
    "To access Mini Global please log on to: www.globalnews.co.nz

    And so it goes on...

    The newsletter questions how society will return from the lockdown. Will we see structural changes altering the way people connect and do business? The results of a CBS poll suggests that it will take some time to return to normality. Encouraged by Donald Trump, many in the US are busting to unbreak their chains, citing the American Constitution (the 14th Amendment) as a reason why restrictions are unlawful (good luck with that!). The Financial Times says that if we think one lockdown is painful, imagine the impact of another from a second wave of infections.

    China is an example of how it should be handled, as few people are flying and they are retaining a semiformal lockdown. New Zealand is the only country in the world attempting to eliminate the virus entirely from its shores - it won't be easy.

    Bill Gates writes for the Economist, suggesting that humanity will beat the pandemic, but life will not return to normal until a vaccine is established. However, if people are being infected second time around it means that immunity is not being established in the same way as for other viruses. There are now even suggestions that a vaccine may not be found.

    America, the country worst hit by the pandemic, has laid off another 4.4 million workers - taking the total to 26 million, or one in six US employees. There are expected to be another 27 million job losses in the second and third quarters.

    As an example of the extreme attempts to revitalise economies, New Zealand is suggesting that "helicopter money", or direct payments to all citizens, may be considered.

    Business continues to evolve. Drones and robots as delivery mediums were once considered extreme, but now may be very appropriate under conditions of reduced social contact.

    National debt levels are soaring, with the IMF suggesting that global gross government debt will increase by US $6 trillion.

    Equities have crept higher, encouraged by central bank stimulus, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.4% last week. One analyst suggests that listed companies be put into three buckets, depending on balance sheets and the ability to adapt.

    A prominent New Zealand's economist is suggesting that the house price decline will be "short-lived".

    Donald Trump has given up (for now) holding conferences for journalists, complaining of "fake news" - after offering false or misleading information in nearly 25% of his remarks. This will be a loss to the entertainment industry.

    It is what it is.

    Take care out there.


    Kind regards,

    John Ryder and Devon Ashby"
    Last edited by kiora; 27-04-2020 at 04:13 PM.

  14. #34
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    The 3 buckets

    "Cramer: The Stock Market Is Now Divided Into 3 Buckets - And One Is Unfortunate
    The problem for index fund owners is they own all three buckets and there are a lot more companies in the third bucket than in the first two."
    https://realmoney.thestreet.com/inve...unate-15302176

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post
    The 3 buckets

    "Cramer: The Stock Market Is Now Divided Into 3 Buckets - And One Is Unfortunate
    The problem for index fund owners is they own all three buckets and there are a lot more companies in the third bucket than in the first two."
    https://realmoney.thestreet.com/inve...unate-15302176
    The problem Cramer has is that he is a crappy stock picker. I understand what he means about the 3 buckets. But theory would indicate that those buckets are already priced in today. So you might want to sell the crappy 3rd bucket but you will get little for it today anyway. In NZ I can think of say AIR, THL, SKT, etc and the stocks in the 1st bucket are ATM and FPH. But FPH is on a PE of 75. Not sure if FPH will outperform the crap bucket in the long run from this day forward. So in essence he is right in that you want the first 2 buckets and not the 3rd, but you wanted that 2 months ago. Today is irrelevant.

  16. #36
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    FPH PE is estimated to be no greater than 59 for 2020( maybe less,we'll see ) in
    4-traders
    Where did the 75 come from?
    Yes it is high I will agree
    For it though it is predicted to keep growing earnings at 15%/year for the foreseeable future
    What I don't get is Genesis priced at PE 49 at estimated earnings.Is its earnings going to grow?

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post
    What I don't get is Genesis priced at PE 49 at estimated earnings.Is its earnings going to grow?
    Yeh I've never owned any for this reason but the smart people tell me it is valued on cash flow and dividend paying capability (i.e it pays out more than it earns because of large depreciation write-offs I think)
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  18. #38
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    www.globalnews.co.nz latest issue out.Reading the forward is always interesting.

    One snippet

    " It is widely assumed that a Covid-19 vaccine will come to our rescue soon. This is unlikely to be true, but, more importantly, it is a dangerous assumption on which to plan the overall response to the pandemic. The lessons to be drawn from the quest for vaccines for other viruses are that our aspirations in vaccine development are not always realised, and that we can make great progress nonetheless with alternative new drugs and interventions."

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