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  1. #31
    An Awesome Cool Cat winner69's Avatar
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    From the archives Aaron chart showing SAN ormalised earnings (taking out the bad stuff) and forecasts from yahoo finance

    Good old analysts eh --- always assuming things will get better and back to where they should be ---- in this case better than average

    But thats modelling for you things always go well ... if the underlying assumptions come to fruition

    Next year forecast is 36 cents a share ..... on this basis share price will be 360-400. As you can see even at 325 today a fair biot of the improvment is already priced in ... on last years earnings should only be 240-280 in my opinion

    Check back in a years time and you can tell me that of course all this was going to happen

  2. #32
    An Awesome Cool Cat winner69's Avatar
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    One thing about the high return period for SAN -- only decent returns when the shareprice collapsed or went down a fair bit ..... just shows always try to buy cheap to get above normal returns .... but in SAN case I would hazard a guess that when SAN was down in the dumps so were other decent companies and buying these at the same time I would hazard anither guess and say the returns fron those would have been better than from SAN

  3. #33
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    I see yahoo analysts summary have forecast growth over the next 5 years at 8.7% pa

    Using sparky's formula on the pgw thread this 'implies' SAN should be worth 393

    the sparky method says san overvalued at the moment

  4. #34
    Senior Member Marilyn Munroe's Avatar
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    Default Modern factory trawlers

    A question for those knowlegable about fishing;

    Would Sanford be better off giving the Koreans and their rust-bucket slave ships the flick and investing in high-tech state of the art factory trawlers?

    Boop boop de do

    Marilyn

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marilyn Munroe View Post
    A question for those knowlegable about fishing;

    Would Sanford be better off giving the Koreans and their rust-bucket slave ships the flick and investing in high-tech state of the art factory trawlers?

    Boop boop de do

    Marilyn
    HI MM,
    I know a little about fishing so hope I qualify to try and respond to your very worthwile question. There is no question that the Koreans and other foreign flagged vessels have served an important purpose over the years in developing NZ deepwater fisheries, especially for the lower value species.
    But the time to see rust bucket Korean vessels where crew is maltreated and made work in unsafe and unacceptable conditions, is well and truly over and should not be accepted in NZ. These are now being phased out over the next 3-4 years, the Koreans all but gone already.

    But I do believe that there will still be an opening for a small number of well run foreign crewed/owned vessels to catch some species that may not be commercially viable for NZ vessels with Kiwi crew to catch.
    But China is buying an increasing amounts of all types of seafood at better prices than we have had in the past and this may well make these species more commercially viable in the medium term future.

    The second part of your question is a good one. Our industry is run by a management system which is very similar to Iceland, where fishing is of similar importance to agriculture here in NZ.
    The Icelandic industry is without a doubt a World leader in techology with a very up-to-date fleet, a fleet that makes a lot of money for both the companies and the share of catch paid crew. There has been tendency in the NZ industry for 20 years now to drive down salaries of fishermen and the result is a serious lack os skills in the industry to man a fleet of new and up to date vessels. Sanfordīs current deepwater vessels are over 25 years old which is ancient in this game. But it is a NZ industry wide problem and needs a complete change in attitudes and directions from industry tops.

    Unfortunately this attitude and aversion to new technology, new investments and high salaries is not limited to the vessels. Our fish factories are also completely outdated with most of the work being done manually, such as fish filleting by hand.
    You look at fish factories in Iceland and Norway where you see only a handful of people and everything is automated.
    But along side tIcelandīs booming fishing industry, they also have booming tech and manufactoring industries with companies for example making high tech fish processing, fisheries research and fishing gear products that are sought after worldwide and demand premium on prices

    So I suppose my long winded answer (sorry for that) is that yes, the NZ fishing industry needs to step up a few gears. We have a great resource that is relatively well managed with a stable management system but we need to utilise it much better for the good of the country and the people that work in the industry.

    The " Kiwi ingenuity" approach simply does not work in todays World !

  6. #36
    Senior Member Marilyn Munroe's Avatar
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    Thanks for your informative reply Iceman.

    I have heard reports that a red meat processing factory was able to improve their yield by 3% - 4% switching from manual to automated processing.

    If such gains are able to be carried over to fish processing then a decision to automate would seem a good idea.

    Boop boop de do

    Marilyn

  7. #37
    Senior Member Marilyn Munroe's Avatar
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    While I am dissapointed in the actions of Sanford and its crew member it seems that no evidence of actual discharge of oil was accepted by the jury. The nub of the offence was a failure to process bilge water through an oil seperator and to falsely claim that they had done so in the records.

    I wonder if there was an element of excessive prosecutorial zeal on the part of US authorities similar to that seen in the Kim Dotcom debacle?

    In Icemans post above he commented that Sanfords deep water vessels are over 25 years old. Was the age of the vessel and its equipment a factor in the offence?


    Boop boop de do

    Marilyn
    Last edited by Marilyn Munroe; 12-01-2013 at 03:13 PM. Reason: grammar

  8. #38
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    A clean record for a number of years prior to this one incident makes me think there might have been a bit of an overzealous approach by the US authorities.
    Still a fine like that should ensure management will take the need for environmental protection seriously in the future. bad news for shareholders though

  9. #39
    An Awesome Cool Cat winner69's Avatar
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    It jsut seems to happen too often ..... when things get a bit tough the good old standards seem to go out the window for the sake of a better bottom line

    These sort of things start from the top .... the culture of the organisation seems to change and and you can only blame the leadership

    So the embedded 'sustainability' standards weren't really a this is how we do do things around here .... no matter the expense ... seems it was more like lip service

    Qantas seems a good example where the the old standards and pride in its fleet have all gone awry .... shareholder interests (ie more money) is the imperative now .... even if their planes are now not the safest in the world like they used to be

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    A clean record for a number of years prior to this one incident makes me think there might have been a bit of an overzealous approach by the US authorities.
    Insert Tui ad...

  11. #41
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    Agree with the sentiments here that this is a very bad look for Sanford and a stain on its otherwise good reputation. The breach itself was a minor one really (record keeping failures onboard) and should have been accepted and dealt with properly by Sanford, rather than obstructing Coast Guard officers doing their job and denying any wrongdoing on their or their crew member's part. A bad performance indeed.

    MM the age of the vessel in this case was not a factor at all.

    I do however not agree with W69 that Sanford pays lip service to sustainability. That is not the experience with them here in NZ where they take their environmental responsibilities very seriously and have for example been consistently at the conservative and outspoken end of the industry with regard to setting of quota levels. They have also worked diligently on improving existing operations and developing new methods to minimize the unavoidable interaction with the environment, with lasting positive results.
    But agree with you W69 that the leadership failed on this issue, resulting in the management culture being brought into question.
    I wonder if the recent management restructure, where overall responsibility of the Pacific operation changed hands, contributed to this fiasco.

    The substantial fines will obviously need to paid but what concern me more is the 3 years probationary period where Sanford vessels can not enter US ports. As far as I understand, Pago Pago is the only port with decent infrastructure to deal with these vessels and their catches in that part of the World so it will be interesting to see how Sanford will operate their fleet up there from now on.

    Although this is not going to have a huge effect on Sanford's performance, I am happy to be out of Sanford at present while watching how this pans out.

  12. #42
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    Iceman. ....I wasn't really doubting Sanfords commitment to sustainability .....just saying that often other things like making profit and keeping shareholders happy tend to lessen that commitment ....and leaders don't keep reinforcing that commitment ... The culture changes ...and things like what has happened happen

    Maybe lip service the wrong phrase ....but recently maybe the commitment has not really been there




    Y

  13. #43
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    Funny enough 3 of the best performing companies on NZX; RYM,EBO and MFT have retained their commitment.!

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Funny enough 3 of the best performing companies on NZX; RYM,EBO and MFT have retained their commitment.!
    Means a lot eh percy

    Probably means that corporate purpose and values are well and truly embedded in the company culture ... from the boss down to the troops .....and decisions at levels have to pass the test 'is this the way we do things around here?'

    Mind you i would say that cracks (even though small ones) are appearing in Mainfreight as they get bigger and bigger .... think how many deaths and serious injuries to staff (or family as they call them) the last few years

  15. #45
    percy
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    Yes I think that is a fair statement.Bigger,more widespread and very different cultures and languages let the cracks get bigger.

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