MET - Metlifecare - one for the fundies?

[Joshuatree]

This is very odd. Surely trading at 50% of net tangible property assets cannot go on forever??!!

Who are NZ Retirement Villages? Why would they be content with management and directors that deliver destruction of shareholder value while praising themselves for their "excellent performance against a challenging back drop"

!! ??

Meanwhile Ryman trades at 200% net tangible property assets and humbly credits their performance due to good service and consistent and simple operating model.

Will be interesting to wee outcome of the strategic review. Hopefully some improvement in liquidity and possibly some value will start to be realised....

That was in 2011. MET has been a "bargain" for 8 years plus.

[Beagle]

That was in 2011. MET has been a "bargain" for 8 years plus.

5 years ago the outlook for Auckland property was sound and MET were trading just above book value.
No other stock in this sector currently trades at less than 110% (OCA) of book value. I think anyone looking to acquire this for less than NTA would have to come up with a very compelling argument to support their case, (not sure what that argument might be, certainly not lack of underlying earnings). I suppose they could point to the recent dip in IFRS reported profit for FY19 but that's clearly historical and there's enough evidence in the market to support the contention that the Auckland real estate market has turned a corner for the better already.
Doubt the directors could / would support a proposal to sell below NTA.

Can't help wondering if the mystery buyer might flush out other interest in MET ?

[peat]

I seem to recall you mentioning a takeover possibility at a particular price very recently Beagle.
You have certainly sniffed out a situation most serendipitously , Sir. I doff my hat to you.

The point that the stock has been undervalued for quite some time does of course decrease the time adjusted returns for those lacking in such astute timing as yourself. But it does support the adage about the market transferring money from the impatient to the patient.

Perhaps your suggestion that there is more value to be flushed out here, (should it pan out that way) will also support another adage floated around on these boards regarding the repeated raising of bids in takeovers. I think it was Balance who coined it.

[Beagle]

Thanks peat. Earlier this year several analysts had a $7 price target on this http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/8...a-premium.html.

It'll be very interesting to see how this play's out.

[peat]

NTA's can be deceptive and prove to be somewhat different when the cookie crumbles. so it isnt always a guide to worth.
NZO was a bit different coz its NTA was mostly cash in the bank.
But this thread title speaks for itself.

[troyvdh]

A while back someone asked about the leaky house issue re MET.Was it answered ?
A few weeks back (on RNZ) I heard an interview with Jessie who was talking to a bloke (who sounded quite authoritative) who written a book about NZs biggest man made disaster..$40B +.
I live in CHCH ..there are 1000's of them.
I understand that this topic is not popular.

[Beagle]

Multi year program...about $40m to go in remediation work if I remember correctly. Has been provisioned for in the balance sheet already.

[winner69]

Multi year program...about $40m to go in remediation work if I remember correctly. Has been provisioned for in the balance sheet already.

Even if they ‘under-estimated’ the remediation cost (as most people do) by say $40m that only impacts NTA by 20 cents

[winner69]

ShareClarity has a DCF value for MET of $5.75

Spooky that’s about the share price today ...maybe it has traded up to what professionals see as a good price.

METs lower return on capital than SUM and RYM is mentioned. Might look at that.

[macduffy]

ShareClarity has a DCF value for MET of $5.75

Spooky that’s about the share price today ...maybe it has traded up to what professionals see as a good price.

METs lower return on capital than SUM and RYM is mentioned. Might look at that.

Or perhaps they just happened to use an interest rate that happens to produce that shareprice?