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  1. #1456
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyTheHorse View Post
    But is this resulting from changes in general economic conditions Beagle? That's where things get murky.
    Hmmm...you have a good point. I'd better stick to my day job (A beagle would look stupid in one of those high court wigs anyway lol)
    That's about as clear as a hot Rotorua mud pool

    Looks like the jury has already made up its mind though.
    Last edited by Beagle; 26-03-2020 at 03:33 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  2. #1457
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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyTheHorse View Post
    But is this resulting from changes in general economic conditions Beagle? That's where things get murky.
    Perhaps they could argue that an epidemic is not an economic matter but is actually a health matter, which has an impact on NTA and NPAT greater than 10%. That would enable them to trigger the escape clause. For example a a sudden rise in infections in MET facilities could see far fewer sales and Profit levels decline by more than 10%. It would be irrelevant if SUM and RYM also faced the same decline as the issue is primarily a health matter, and not an economic one.

    The government's response to the epidemic may also have an impact on general economic conditions and profitability exceeding 10%. But that in itself would not enable them to trigger their escape clause.

  3. #1458
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bjauck View Post
    Perhaps they could argue that an epidemic is not an economic matter but is actually a health matter, which has an impact on NTA and NPAT greater than 10%. That would enable them to trigger the escape clause. For example a a sudden rise in infections in MET facilities could see far fewer sales and Profit levels decline by more than 10%. It would be irrelevant if SUM and RYM also faced the same decline as the issue is primarily a health matter, and not an economic one.

    The government's response to the epidemic may also have an impact on general economic conditions and profitability exceeding 10%. But that in itself would not enable them to trigger their escape clause.
    yeh exactly, proximate cause - the event- is the Pandemic, not the general economic conditions which are a result of the pandemic, and that allows them to claim the 10% lower profit figure which will easily occur
    I don't think they need a cluster of infections either as you imply
    So they can trigger the MAC
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  4. #1459
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    I really feel for MET holders..what a ride.

  5. #1460
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    Quote Originally Posted by troyvdh View Post
    I really feel for MET holders..what a ride.
    funny how there was such a big discussion about whether to hang on for those last 12 cents … absolutely trivial in the end, and ended up being such a stinger.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  6. #1461
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    I feel really bad for the MET shareholders who were (in effect) being told on here by sum "it was obvious it was undervalued and of course would be subject to a takeover offer imminently", and even suggest an offer higher than $7 is quite possible... just shows, buying undervalued companies because they "are cheap", without actually considering their fundamentals (as to why they might be consistently cheap for years and years) and purely relying/claiming it will be taken over (and that "its obvious" a big premium, big money will be made) is a very risky game - not a one way street to making money.

    While I expect the rest (except maybe SUM) to recover nicely over the coming year, I don't think MET will to the same extent given that prior to the takeover offer it was in the mid to low $4's... so really, totally ignoring takeover speculation, MET is currently only down about 10% from where it was August last year.. all the other operators are down substantially more than 10%.
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 26-03-2020 at 05:44 PM.

  7. #1462
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    Everyone had the option to sell out at close to the offer price of $7.00 - their choice to hang on for the last 10 cents.

    No need for anyone to serve up crocodile tears for those who chose to hang on for a higher offer or for the last 10 cents.

    The big boys building up their arbitrage stake in search of a higher offer or as simply a better than fixed interest play - cry for them if you are genuinely tearing up.
    Last edited by Balance; 26-03-2020 at 05:55 PM.

  8. #1463
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    Some even said the offer was too cheap and undervalued the company.

  9. #1464
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    The only constant in life is change howver I have never seen change on this scale in this sector in my lifetime, nothing anything like this.
    OCA for example at the start of this year hit an intra day high of $1.38. At their intraday low last week they were just 38 cents. Please put your hand up if you have ever seen anything like that. If you're not really quick and adaptable to radically changing circumstances you'll get run over, its as simple as that.

    The world is a radically different place today than it was at the start of the year. Material change in circumstances is an absolute given and some QC lawyers on many times this suburban bean counters pay rate will presently be combing through heaps of case history on this to build their escape clause case.

    Its all over. Fair value ? Take $4.20 in 2019, less the average decline in this sector since MET was $4.20...I have yet to crunch the numbers but it wouldn't surprise me if it was under $3. The fact that they have the lowest gearing in this sector might save them from the indignity of a 2 handle on the share price.

    Independent appraisal report as supposed to be in shareholders hands by late March but there's no sign of that so that's another indicator this takeover is dead in the water.
    Last edited by Beagle; 26-03-2020 at 06:52 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  10. #1465
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    The only constant in life is change howver I have never seen change on this scale in this sector in my lifetime, nothing anything like this.
    OCA for example at the start of this year hit an intra day high of $1.38. At their intraday low last week they were just 38 cents. Please put your hand up if you have ever seen anything like that.

    The world is a radically different place today than it was at the start of the year. Material change in circumstances is an absolute given and some QC lawyers on many times this suburban bean counters pay rate will presently be combing through heaps of case history on this to build their escape clause case.
    I've seen it , on the green screens at the brokers office where I worked in '87. Chase Corp was $9 and went to zero. I cant remember how quickly exactly but there were movements of dollars per day. Next day nearly everyone was sacked lol (well not lol at the time).

    Yeh I should've held my short on this one its always a weakness of mine to take profits too quickly. But I am pleased it was my idea coz it was a good one and I kept everyone up to date with my thinking so anyone could've jumped aboard the train if they had the mechanism set up.

    Its would appear to be very disingenuous of the directors to maintain s/h's hopes that this SIA will complete. Even if the Offeror is still nodding quietly at this point , they wont pay up, and it would be a hard job to enforce. Anything is possible tho which leaves a healthy arbitrage if you think it will!
    Last edited by peat; 26-03-2020 at 08:39 PM.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  11. #1466
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    I've seen it , on the green screens at the brokers office where I worked in '87. Chase Corp was $9 and went to zero. I cant remember how quickly exactly but there were movements of dollars per day. Next day nearly everyone was sacked lol (well not lol at the time).
    Not surprised Chase Corp went from $9 to zero, was told company was set up on $100 with assets been an office and a phone.

    Heaps of others were the same amazing times .........

  12. #1467
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    The only constant in life is change howver I have never seen change on this scale in this sector in my lifetime, nothing anything like this.
    OCA for example at the start of this year hit an intra day high of $1.38. At their intraday low last week they were just 38 cents. Please put your hand up if you have ever seen anything like that. If you're not really quick and adaptable to radically changing circumstances you'll get run over, its as simple as that.

    The world is a radically different place today than it was at the start of the year. Material change in circumstances is an absolute given and some QC lawyers on many times this suburban bean counters pay rate will presently be combing through heaps of case history on this to build their escape clause case.

    Its all over. Fair value ? Take $4.20 in 2019, less the average decline in this sector since MET was $4.20...I have yet to crunch the numbers but it wouldn't surprise me if it was under $3. The fact that they have the lowest gearing in this sector might save them from the indignity of a 2 handle on the share price.

    Independent appraisal report as supposed to be in shareholders hands by late March but there's no sign of that so that's another indicator this takeover is dead in the water.
    I'm also of the opinion a takeover at $7 is completely dead in the water. The Unknown question is whether APGV are going to walk away or haggle on price. They have clearly invested heaps to get to this point so they may decide to haggle. A revised offer of say $5.50 remains a possibility but I don't think the MET board would endorse an offer at that price (even if it may have shareholder support - think STU). Given all the other cheap investment opportunities that have opened up world wide, my guess they will simply walk away. This smaller likelihood of haggling over the takeover price is whats keeping the share price up.


    Over the January to early March period there were a heap of shares traded. Many of them are likely have landed up in the hands of funds that will have no interest in MET if its neither a takeover play or a bond-proxy. I'd guess most will look to bail out, take the loss on the chin and move to the next opportunity. What's that going to do to the share price, particularly in the current market where taking of 10, 20 and 30% of value is normal?

  13. #1468
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    Disc still not holding - briefly considered buying some this afternoon but I think there's going to be more pressure on the share price as existing purchasers of a takeover situation bail out.

  14. #1469
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    I think Kim hit the jackpot with Waste Management but sorry lightening won’t strike twice.

  15. #1470
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    Am I correct in thinking Morgan Stanley is shorting MET...........

    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/350682

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