10% chance of takeover at $6.25 (mid point $6.00 to $6.50 - I just love midpoints)
10% chance of market love taking it $5.00
30% chance price hangs around $4.40 50% chance of price falling to $3.60
‘Expected’ target price in a years time $4.25
BaaBaa mentions opportunity cost ...should be considered as well
Maybe the mantra is now MET, heads you might win, tails you might lose a bit ....hmmm
The first version of your probability analysis made a lot more sense to me.
Last edited by Beagle; 04-06-2020 at 03:39 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Originally Posted by winner69
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