MET - Metlifecare - one for the fundies?

[winner69]

Gave Kim Ellis a ring but he’s otherwise occupied I was told - no doubt basking in the glory of getting a great price for shareholders.

So I sent him an email recommending Beagle Market Analytics Ltd to do the independent advisors report.

Even that company might fall for the old ‘framing’ trick - value already been signalled as between $6.60 to $7.20 - must come close to that or no pay wink wink

Whoever they did appoint covered their bases with a wider range with the $6.50 to $7.65 that they apparently came up with.

What independent valuations never address is ‘why do some companies generally trade on low value?’. They always assume it’s a perfect world out there and Z should always equal X times Y

[Arthur]

To time short to do the research, but even if the court finds for MET what power will they have to enforce a foreign company to comply? Thanks to anyone that knows and shares

[winner69]

Current share price $4.44 seems about right if no takeover on cards.

Maybe this a way to get a fair expected values target price for year end -

40% chance of takeover at $6.25 (mid point $6.00 to $6.50 - I just love midpoints)
10% chance of market love taking it $5.00
30% chance price hangs around $4.50
20% chance of price falling to $4.00

So all up ‘expected return’ of $5.15 covering all bases

Suppose worth while staying on board and hoping like hell we get $6.50 sooner than later

[BlackPeter]

Current share price $4.44 seems about right if no takeover on cards.

Maybe this a way to get a fair expected values target price for year end -

40% chance of takeover at $6.25 (mid point $6.00 to $6.50 - I just love midpoints)
10% chance of market love taking it $5.00
30% chance price hangs around $4.50
20% chance of price falling to $4.00

So all up ‘expected return’ of $5.15 covering all bases

Suppose worth while staying on board and hoping like hell we get $6.50 sooner than later

Well, given my average buy in price of $3.17 I guess I can live with all of your scenarios ... just wishing I had bought a bit larger parcel at that stage :

[Beagle]

Current share price $4.44 seems about right if no takeover on cards.

Maybe this a way to get a fair expected values target price for year end -

40% chance of takeover at $6.25 (mid point $6.00 to $6.50 - I just love midpoints)
10% chance of market love taking it $5.00
30% chance price hangs around $4.50
20% chance of price falling to $4.00

So all up ‘expected return’ of $5.15 covering all bases

Suppose worth while staying on board and hoping like hell we get $6.50 sooner than later

For what its worth I modelled up a range of scenario's just the other day and ascribed what I perceived as the percentage scenario's to them and got an answer within 5 cents of yours's.

[winner69]

Well, given my average buy in price of $3.17 I guess I can live with all of your scenarios ... just wishing I had bought a bit larger parcel at that stage :

Well done BP ....fraction lower than me

The past is the past and historical eh .... i was looking at what returns might get from here in the future

Isn't that what we should be doing rather than testing on ones laurels

[winner69]

For what its worth I modelled up a range of scenario's just the other day and ascribed what I perceived as the percentage scenario's to them and got an answer within 5 cents of yours's.

OMG we agree on something

MET a dog stock and always will be .....but hoping a punt on a takeover over $6 happens soon. Only reason to 'invest' in MET

[Beagle]

OMG we agree on something

MET a dog stock and always will be .....but hoping a punt on a takeover over $6 happens soon. Only reason to 'invest' in MET

I was just as shocked as you ...but I am not so sure on your second sentence. I think they have done well to weather the Covid 19 crisis with FY20 forecast underlying profit little changed from last year.

[dubya]

Wow. Big sell at the end of the day.

Attachment 11634

[bull....]

hammer time - had to happen sucked in the punters those arb players