MET - Metlifecare - one for the fundies?

[Beagle]

So next question : What would be an acceptable offer to the institutional shareholders?

A figure of $6 has been put out there (refer The Australian) which could have only come from EQT.

For the hedge funds who bought hundreds of millions of dollars worth of MET shares as an arbitrage play (gone wrong), $6 would be perfectly acceptable as they need liquidity to get out of their huge position. Hence, the agitation once they are made aware of the revised offer imo.

For other shareholders however, EQT's revised offer suggests EQT know they are on the back foot in the litigation and there could be serious reputational as well as financial damage if they lose.

Well, the adage that the first offer is never the last and final offer applies - so look for some sort of amicable settlement at around $6.30 to $6.50?

The mid point of the most recently revised independent valuation is $6.35 and I think most people would be happy to accept that and call it a day

[Balance]

The mid point of the most recently revised independent valuation is $6.35 and I think most people would be happy to accept that and call it a day

The hedge funds will be more than happy at $6.00, that's for sure.

Remember that some of the hedge funds bailed out when EQT pulled its $7 offer and they were willing to bail out as low as $3.15!

The challenge will be to get the major NZ institutions (1/3rd of total shareholdings) to accept a revised lower offer.

Will need W69 to keep pushing the negative narrative to get them to accept a lower offer?

[winner69]

The mid point of the most recently revised independent valuation is $6.35 and I think most people would be happy to accept that and call it a day

You and your mid points crack me up ....no logic in it all

But hoping like hell that on this occasion mid points are what the outcome is....even if it proves you’re right

[Balance]

You and your mid points crack me up ....no logic in it all

But hoping like hell that on this occasion mid points are what the outcome is....even if it proves you’re right

Sell side getting rather thin as the institutions hold off awaiting the outcome of the revised offer.

SP spiking quickly past $5 in recent days a little suspicious, don't you think?

[Beagle]

You and your mid points crack me up ....no logic in it all

But hoping like hell that on this occasion mid points are what the outcome is....even if it proves you’re right

Mid points in theoretical valuations which have a range are the most likely to be more correct than any other under standard deviation analysis. Might have to get my steam powered abacus out though because I suspect that the statistics to be released mid July by arguably the most authoritative report, (REINZ monthly medium sales stat's by region) will show medium Auckland and Bay of Plenty house prices are ostensibly unchanged or slightly higher in June 2020 than they were in December 2019. That might be the fly in the ointment that shows no reduction on the $7 price is warranted. Wonder how your mates at the Super fund will feel then ?

As for me I am happy to roll over and accept $6.35 as long as they give this fat dog a good tummy rub and pat and tell me what a good dog I am.

[Balance]

Mid points in theoretical valuations which have a range are the most likely to be more correct than any other under standard deviation analysis. Might have to get my steam powered abacus out though because I suspect that the statistics to be released mid July by arguably the most authoritative report, (REINZ monthly medium sales stat's by region) will show medium Auckland and Bay of Plenty house prices are ostensibly unchanged or slightly higher in June 2020 than they were in December 2019. That might be the fly in the ointment that shows no reduction on the $7 price is warranted. Wonder how your mates at the Super fund will feel then ?

As for me I am happy to roll over and accept $6.35 as long as they give this fat dog a good tummy rub and pat and tell me what a good dog I am.

Friend of mine sold their place in St Heliers at auction last week and very very happy with the price obtained - well above CV and well above reserve. In fact, the auction had to be brought forward by two weeks as a buyer put in a drop dead offer above reserve after just the first open home!

Property is nice - family home (aged decor) with a swimming pool (which needs refencing) and apparently there is a really bad shortage of such properties (family homes with land) on the market - plenty of NZers returning back from overseas with $$$$.

So yes, I think you are bang on with your assessment that median Auckland prices are holding steady.

[Balance]

Sell side getting rather thin as the institutions hold off awaiting the outcome of the revised offer.

SP spiking quickly past $5 in recent days a little suspicious, don't you think?

I see both parties are declining to comment on whether talks are taking place.

Logic says that talks are then taking place.

Announcement by Friday?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Kind of amazing that NZX doesn't request a disclosure be made with these types of news articles being published (especially behind paywalls... and yes I have access to these so I'm not complaining from that front!) It is clearly price sensitive as shown in price movements after publishing.

At the same time though it's the NZX so I'm not surprised at all.

[JeremyALD]

It is quite mind boggling these shares ever went down to $3.30. I'm glad i got some at that price, but kind of feeling dumb for not getting more. It really was ridiculous.

As for the offer, I don't really care. I'd take anything over $6.25, but they need to decide quickly whether to renegotiate or get on with running the business. I've decided there's no point dragging this out, it benefits no one.

[williethewaiter]

Friend of mine sold their place in St Heliers at auction last week and very very happy with the price obtained - well above CV and well above reserve. In fact, the auction had to be brought forward by two weeks as a buyer put in a drop dead offer above reserve after just the first open home!

Property is nice - family home (aged decor) with a swimming pool (which needs refencing) and apparently there is a really bad shortage of such properties (family homes with land) on the market - plenty of NZers returning back from overseas with $$$$.

So yes, I think you are bang on with your assessment that median Auckland prices are holding steady.

I'm in that area and looking to change up - it's insane at the moment. We've been told by multiple agents to expect a range for ours that is around $300k more than pre-covid.

From what I've seen and experienced in the last few weeks while wife drags me to open homes- massive shortage of 4 bedroom family homes and lots of buyers. Have a mate in Western Springs / Kingsland area selling who is seeing huge foot traffic through the door in open homes and lots of registered bidders already. There really is a post-covid premium at the moment.

Is interesting though as anything sub-2 is flying out the door.. anything in the mid-high 2's people are a lot more nervous so slower to sell and feeling that some discounting can be had if you're cashed up. New builds in the bays have dropped from pre-covid 2.4 to 1.8 to 2.2 as developers looking to move them. Apartments seem to be going well - new build right across the road from us that we thought would struggle to sell sold penthouse for north of 3 - and it was nothing special. Older owners looking to downsize are getting frustrated as an apartment cost is now what they're selling their family home for.

Only place that isn't selling in the bays is the one right next door to where Oceania is building their village!