MET - Metlifecare - one for the fundies?

[Cyclical]

Holding MET is sure $6.00, holding OCA there is more risk associated.

How sure is the $6 ? What happens to the share price if shareholders vote the takeover down ?

Assuming that $6 is a risk free sure thing, that 10c you're holding out for is about a 1.7% gain over however many months it's going to take. OCA have a divvy coming up, that will be 1.5 to 2x that probably (pre-tax mind), and the likelihood of OCA not grabbing at least another 5% capital gain at some point between now and your EQT cheque arriving I would say is very slim. And if you were taking the long term view, then OCA seems to me to be a no brainer.

Hold out for that 10c NOCASH? Think I'd rather have SOMECASH right now.

[Beagle]

Maybe wishful thinking on Govt funding Cyclical. I've made too much money to be too badly bent up out of shape about this fiasco but I can't stand board incompetence so part of me would love to give them a real roasting at that special meeting...but in reality my energy is probably best directed elsewhere.

I guess the dirty truth is with the level of "professionalism" of that board and a broken development model maybe $6 "as is" isn't a toally outrageous price. Obviously Carolyn Steele as representative for the super fund's 20% doesn't think much of management's ability to add value through development does she !...and let's be honest, she's in a far better more informed position to asess the situation than we are !

I haven't redeployed my MET sales proceeds yet. I have truckloads of OCA already and it seems like such a complete no brainer to put much more there it makes me wonder what I think I know but might not know about next week's result. I am holding off reinvesting MET proceeds until I see the result. Probably a curse being a bean-counter sometimes...the perceived need to see actual results before making a potentially substantial further investment.

[Cyclical]

Maybe wishful thinking on Govt funding Cyclical. I've made too much monry to be too badly bent up out of shape about thsi fiasco but I can;t stand board incompetence. I guess the dirty truth is with the level of "professionalism" of that board and a broken development model maybe $6 as is isn't a toally outrageous price. Obviously Carolyn Steele as representative for the super fund's 20% doesn't think much of management's ability to add value through development does she...and let's be honest, she's in a far better more informed position to asess the situation !

There is that. Hopefully those buggers don't come along and see the sound management and potential synergies through snapping up OCA too...or at least I hope there are enough of us around to say no when it happens!

I haven't redeployed my MET sales proceeds yet. I have truckloads of OCA already and it seems like such a complete no brainer to put them there it makes me wonder what I think I know but might not know about next week's result. I am holding off reinvesting until I see the result. Probably a curse being a bean-counter sometimes...the perceived need to see actual results before making a potentially substantial further investment.

At least that parcel you bought the other week is no longer in the red Let me know when you find sound alternate options to park finds that aren't already overpriced! I'm looking, but honestly, the disconnect...

[Beagle]

Yeah mate it wasn't much fun being about 10 cents underwater on that extra 50K I bought @ $1. Average is just under 70 cents but that didn't ease the discomfort any lol
The size of the disconnect between the market and underlying economy is really messing with my head and I'm absolutely certain I'm not the only one finding it bewildering !

Reported on CNBC this morning. Global stimulus (previously committed and planned) by all central bankers worldwide $29 Trillion, total size of the world's sharemarkets $54 Trillion...what could possibly go wrong

The thought of EQT or someone else coming after OCA really worries me. So few GARP stocks left on the NZX its a real concern.

For what its worth I bought a few more BRM today. Only fair value at 69 cents. Expecting another warrant issue soon.

[Baa_Baa]

@beagle for your mental health and objectivity, move on with your handsome profit on Met, comforted in the knowledge you barked first. Just don’t bother dwelling here, it is not your business anymore and free up some headspace for the next opportunity.

Secondly imo tune up your TA so that you can disconnect from the bewildering market performance vs the broader economic situation. It is not something that can be rationalised, it just is. TA will detach you from the apparent craziness and help you time your entries and exits. TA has no emotion, it just is, just act on it.

Hope this helps. Glad you took your profits, well deserved and hope this underperformer in the sector doesn’t drag you down unnecessarily anymore.

All the best
BAA

[bottomfeeder]

I'm waiting for the $6-00 as well no brokerage. If it all falls through, I will be pleased then I can buy some more. Safest bet for the coming financial depression. Already have loads of OCA, and don't want to chase the price. Just hoping no takeover for OCA coming either.

[Beagle]

Much appreciated Baa Baa, thank you. Must admit I did find it quite hard to hit the sell button the other day, sometimes a bit strange...some sort of weird emotional attachment can creep in to stocks that have made your bank account a lot fatter. No room for emotion with investing though is there and something I had to remind myself as encouragement to push that sell button. Feels good now its been done.

OCA looks very good on the charts....and will look especially good if it can break above $1.03

[NOCASH]

I don't understand why the SP not at $5.99 or $6.00 isn't a sure sure deal? its a no brainier.. if ones term deposit up for renewal, take it out and buy at $5.91 wait for 4 months...

[dabsman]

I don't understand why the SP not at $5.99 or $6.00 isn't a sure sure deal? its a no brainier.. if ones term deposit up for renewal, take it out and buy at $5.91 wait for 4 months...

The 10c is the market pricing in the risk of it not going thru. I havent sold yet but took $6.91 last time around as hanging on for a small upside can be risky and it certainly was...

I still think this has more to play out so hesitant to sell. I'm on over 150% profit on this one the last 12 months so I cant complain - but still dont mind one more rollercoaster ride

[BlackPeter]

I don't understand why the SP not at $5.99 or $6.00 isn't a sure sure deal? its a no brainier.. if ones term deposit up for renewal, take it out and buy at $5.91 wait for 4 months...

Just look at the last sure sure deal ... they all are only sure until one of the party decides to change their mind or until the circumstances change. Did happen in the past, but for sure won't happen again ?

Hint ... 4 months is a looong time in an exponentially growing Covid pandemic. NZ might have a second wave. Sweden will have an amazing second wave. People might run out of money or see better opportunities. Rules and regulations might change.