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  1. #661
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    So buyback to start next week. The $30m ‘buys’ them about 2.7% of the company

    A admission of failure from a Board that lacks drive and ambition

    But if it gives instos and other shareholders the warm fuzzies it must be good

    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...124/311607.pdf
    Last edited by winner69; 12-11-2019 at 07:56 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #662
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    So buyback to start next week. The $30m ‘buys’ them about 2.7% of the company

    A admission of failure from a Board that lacks drive and ambition

    But if it gives instos and other shareholders the warm fuzzies it must be good

    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...124/311607.pdf
    I think that's more than a little harsh as they have already announced that this buy-back does not compromise their ~ $500 development program over the next 3 years and they are gradually moving to change their business model with a higher level of care.
    The buy-back will quite clearly be eps accretive and their gearing level is very low.
    I think its good to see the board finally being proactive about the discount to NTA. It would have been better if it was at the maximum allowable 5% of shares but something is better than nothing.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  3. #663
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    The buy-back will quite clearly be eps accretive and their gearing level is very low.
    I think its good to see the board finally being proactive about the discount to NTA. It would have been better if it was at the maximum allowable 5% of shares but something is better than nothing.
    The good old eps accretive trick eh

    Starting the buyback now mean theyve sold that Auckland site which is going to fund it?
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #664
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    The good old eps accretive trick eh

    Starting the buyback now mean theyve sold that Auckland site which is going to fund it?
    Not really a trick though is it mate. Sold and settles in February, from memory. They have oodles of cash having just raised $100m a bond placement at just 3.00%
    Getting investors to loan you money for 7 years at just 3.00% fixed, now that's a trick !
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #665
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Well regarded Devon Funds management adding more http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...177/311673.pdf
    I continue to add to my position too with more added yesterday and today. Plenty of value here still, and with the support of the $30m buy-back to come...
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  6. #666
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    We are in agreement Beagle.
    Devon have seen the potential to increase the performance of one or more of their funds. A rise from 5.00 to 6.00 plus a 2.2% dividend yield would give a gain of 22.2% over the next year. I predict MET will continue with a policy of annual dividend increases as well.
    A majority of property analysts are now predicting a rise of 3-7% in Auckland property prices over the next year. A 5% increase will roughly boost the MET portfolio value by that amount as sellers of Auck property will have that extra bit to buy their licences to occupy.
    I calculate an increase of 5% plus development margins on the 500mill in train plus the reduction in share capital from the buy back should produce an NTA of at least 7.50 by 30.9.20.
    We are vulnerable to a takeover. Lets hope our major shareholders take a long view and hold until we exceed 8.00.

  7. #667
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    I'd be okay with a takeover at $ 7.50 now
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  8. #668
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Defaul...ber%202019.pdf
    Bay of Plenty where MET have a number of villages doing very well and Auckland doing okay too !
    Buyback starts next week and holders appear to be very well positioned ! My rating BUY.
    Last edited by Beagle; 14-11-2019 at 10:32 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  9. #669
    percy
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    Have they fixed the leaky buildings you used to bark [very loudly] on about.?

  10. #670
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    They have there 4-5 year program they're steadily working their way through on remediation issues and they're certainly not the only retirement village operator with problem buildings to fix. Discount to NTA in my opinion is because a lot of people took a very negative view on Auckland property prices and where they were headed and thought we would follow Sydney and Melbourne. Emerging evidence all round including in Sydney and Melbourne that the bottom is in and we're on the up and up.
    More details on buy-back next month. In the meantime, no worries
    Posted 25 October 2019 when the SP was $4.81
    I think they'll be somewhere around half way through that program by the end of this financial year Percy. Emphasis added.
    Current market cap at $5.20 = $1.1billion
    Market cap at NTA of $6.96 per share $1.48 billion.
    Difference $380m
    I think they'll have about (from memory) somewhere around $40m to spend on that program by year end.
    Market presently marking them down from NTA by about 10 times the expected remediation costs and those costs have already been factored into the NTA of $6.96.

    I'll let people decide for themselves if that's a logical situation or not.
    Last edited by Beagle; 14-11-2019 at 10:55 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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