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  1. #2741
    Legend Balance's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    If I remember correctly the takeover of Waste Management was long drawn out affair before Ellis (and the Board) caved in.

    Ellis spent years telling the market that Transpacific didn’t get a ‘bargain’ ...plenty of criticism about the price obtained and it always came across as Ellis justifying what they did

    Balance might have better memory than me.
    Gee - really taxing the memory bank here, W69!

    All I can recall (from my own perspective) was selling out on the market at close to the takeover price, while the battle raged between institutional shareholders who wanted a proper takeover deal (cash & 100% takeout at a higher price) than the scrip (Transpacific) and scheme of arrangement 'merger'.

    One of the advantages of being a small shareholder who can easily get out vs the big institutions.

    Did not get to have a second bite at Waste Management however, unlike Metlife here.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=10382330

  2. #2742
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    NBR mentions that the Chairman is well aware of "talk" of an extraordinary meeting to remove directors. People can decide for themselves whether that's evidence per se or not.

    Seems to me MET have approached EQT seeking a deal and have been lowballed with a heavily revised offer which MET have rejected.
    Where it goes from here is anyone's guess !
    Having observed how 'leaks' find their way into the AFR and other newspapers over the decades, I believe it will be EQT (refer 1 below) who has the real motivation to leak the news that MET directors have rejected their revised (obviously lower) offer.

    This ties in with the NBR also separately reported that institutional shareholders (refer 2 below) are agitating for an EGM to get the directors to accept the revised offer.

    Observations:

    1. EQT or its agent was most likely the one to leak the news that they had pulled the previous offer which caused the sp to crater.

    2. MET directors have the support* of the institutions to take EQT to court to seek specific performance of the takeover offer by EQT. Unless there is a revised offer acceptable to the institutions, there is no reason for the institutions to agitate for the directors to be removed.

    ------------------------------------- GAME ON! -----------------------------------------------------

    * Shareholders support directors taking EQT to court : https://www.nzx.com/announcements/353446
    Last edited by Balance; 30-06-2020 at 09:42 AM.

  3. #2743
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    Exactly..

    And difficult to imagine that the pensions funds and institutional investors providing the funding to EQT funds are doing so to fund risky and expensive legal campaigns down in the South Pacific...

    Settlement beckons...

  4. #2744
    Legend Balance's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moimoi View Post
    Exactly..

    And difficult to imagine that the pensions funds and institutional investors providing the funding to EQT funds are doing so to fund risky and expensive legal campaigns down in the South Pacific...

    Settlement beckons...
    So next question : What would be an acceptable offer to the institutional shareholders?

    A figure of $6 has been put out there (refer The Australian) which could have only come from EQT.

    For the hedge funds who bought hundreds of millions of dollars worth of MET shares as an arbitrage play (gone wrong), $6 would be perfectly acceptable as they need liquidity to get out of their huge position. Hence, the agitation once they are made aware of the revised offer imo.

    For other shareholders however, EQT's revised offer suggests EQT know they are on the back foot in the litigation and there could be serious reputational as well as financial damage if they lose.

    Well, the adage that the first offer is never the last and final offer applies - so look for some sort of amicable settlement at around $6.30 to $6.50?

  5. #2745
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    If EQT loses, in the event of a court case, wouldn't they have to pay some form of penalty ?
    i.e. Pay the $7 per share + compensation.
    Will we, as shareholders get some benefits from this compensation ?

  6. #2746
    Legend Balance's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by limmy View Post
    If EQT loses, in the event of a court case, wouldn't they have to pay some form of penalty ?
    i.e. Pay the $7 per share + compensation.
    Will we, as shareholders get some benefits from this compensation ?
    If there is any compensation, shareholders would of course get the benefit - via a special dividend for eg.

    Doubt vey much we will see this playing out in the court now.

    The leaks coming out say that the two parties (but especially EQT) are moving towards a settlement.

  7. #2747
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    As an aside, MET should be getting ready to make an announcement about what’s happening behind the scenes in the interest of continuous disclosure.

    If history is any guide however, the directors are likely to keep quiet and we will probably only get an update when a deal is announced?

    So - be there or miss out!
    Last edited by Balance; 30-06-2020 at 10:33 AM.

  8. #2748
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    So next question : What would be an acceptable offer to the institutional shareholders?

    A figure of $6 has been put out there (refer The Australian) which could have only come from EQT.

    For the hedge funds who bought hundreds of millions of dollars worth of MET shares as an arbitrage play (gone wrong), $6 would be perfectly acceptable as they need liquidity to get out of their huge position. Hence, the agitation once they are made aware of the revised offer imo.

    For other shareholders however, EQT's revised offer suggests EQT know they are on the back foot in the litigation and there could be serious reputational as well as financial damage if they lose.

    Well, the adage that the first offer is never the last and final offer applies - so look for some sort of amicable settlement at around $6.30 to $6.50?
    The mid point of the most recently revised independent valuation is $6.35 and I think most people would be happy to accept that and call it a day
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  9. #2749
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    The mid point of the most recently revised independent valuation is $6.35 and I think most people would be happy to accept that and call it a day
    The hedge funds will be more than happy at $6.00, that's for sure.

    Remember that some of the hedge funds bailed out when EQT pulled its $7 offer and they were willing to bail out as low as $3.15!

    The challenge will be to get the major NZ institutions (1/3rd of total shareholdings) to accept a revised lower offer.

    Will need W69 to keep pushing the negative narrative to get them to accept a lower offer?

  10. #2750
    CEO Butch Analytics Ltd winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    The mid point of the most recently revised independent valuation is $6.35 and I think most people would be happy to accept that and call it a day
    You and your mid points crack me up ....no logic in it all

    But hoping like hell that on this occasion mid points are what the outcome is....even if it proves you’re right
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  11. #2751
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    You and your mid points crack me up ....no logic in it all

    But hoping like hell that on this occasion mid points are what the outcome is....even if it proves you’re right
    Sell side getting rather thin as the institutions hold off awaiting the outcome of the revised offer.

    SP spiking quickly past $5 in recent days a little suspicious, don't you think?

  12. #2752
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    You and your mid points crack me up ....no logic in it all

    But hoping like hell that on this occasion mid points are what the outcome is....even if it proves you’re right
    Mid points in theoretical valuations which have a range are the most likely to be more correct than any other under standard deviation analysis. Might have to get my steam powered abacus out though because I suspect that the statistics to be released mid July by arguably the most authoritative report, (REINZ monthly medium sales stat's by region) will show medium Auckland and Bay of Plenty house prices are ostensibly unchanged or slightly higher in June 2020 than they were in December 2019. That might be the fly in the ointment that shows no reduction on the $7 price is warranted. Wonder how your mates at the Super fund will feel then ?

    As for me I am happy to roll over and accept $6.35 as long as they give this fat dog a good tummy rub and pat and tell me what a good dog I am.
    Last edited by Beagle; 30-06-2020 at 11:27 AM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  13. #2753
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Mid points in theoretical valuations which have a range are the most likely to be more correct than any other under standard deviation analysis. Might have to get my steam powered abacus out though because I suspect that the statistics to be released mid July by arguably the most authoritative report, (REINZ monthly medium sales stat's by region) will show medium Auckland and Bay of Plenty house prices are ostensibly unchanged or slightly higher in June 2020 than they were in December 2019. That might be the fly in the ointment that shows no reduction on the $7 price is warranted. Wonder how your mates at the Super fund will feel then ?

    As for me I am happy to roll over and accept $6.35 as long as they give this fat dog a good tummy rub and pat and tell me what a good dog I am.
    Friend of mine sold their place in St Heliers at auction last week and very very happy with the price obtained - well above CV and well above reserve. In fact, the auction had to be brought forward by two weeks as a buyer put in a drop dead offer above reserve after just the first open home!

    Property is nice - family home (aged decor) with a swimming pool (which needs refencing) and apparently there is a really bad shortage of such properties (family homes with land) on the market - plenty of NZers returning back from overseas with $$$$.

    So yes, I think you are bang on with your assessment that median Auckland prices are holding steady.
    Last edited by Balance; 30-06-2020 at 11:44 AM.

  14. #2754
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Sell side getting rather thin as the institutions hold off awaiting the outcome of the revised offer.

    SP spiking quickly past $5 in recent days a little suspicious, don't you think?
    I see both parties are declining to comment on whether talks are taking place.

    Logic says that talks are then taking place.

    Announcement by Friday?

  15. #2755
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    Kind of amazing that NZX doesn't request a disclosure be made with these types of news articles being published (especially behind paywalls... and yes I have access to these so I'm not complaining from that front!) It is clearly price sensitive as shown in price movements after publishing.

    At the same time though it's the NZX so I'm not surprised at all.

  16. #2756
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    It is quite mind boggling these shares ever went down to $3.30. I'm glad i got some at that price, but kind of feeling dumb for not getting more. It really was ridiculous.

    As for the offer, I don't really care. I'd take anything over $6.25, but they need to decide quickly whether to renegotiate or get on with running the business. I've decided there's no point dragging this out, it benefits no one.

  17. #2757
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Friend of mine sold their place in St Heliers at auction last week and very very happy with the price obtained - well above CV and well above reserve. In fact, the auction had to be brought forward by two weeks as a buyer put in a drop dead offer above reserve after just the first open home!

    Property is nice - family home (aged decor) with a swimming pool (which needs refencing) and apparently there is a really bad shortage of such properties (family homes with land) on the market - plenty of NZers returning back from overseas with $$$$.

    So yes, I think you are bang on with your assessment that median Auckland prices are holding steady.
    I'm in that area and looking to change up - it's insane at the moment. We've been told by multiple agents to expect a range for ours that is around $300k more than pre-covid.

    From what I've seen and experienced in the last few weeks while wife drags me to open homes- massive shortage of 4 bedroom family homes and lots of buyers. Have a mate in Western Springs / Kingsland area selling who is seeing huge foot traffic through the door in open homes and lots of registered bidders already. There really is a post-covid premium at the moment.

    Is interesting though as anything sub-2 is flying out the door.. anything in the mid-high 2's people are a lot more nervous so slower to sell and feeling that some discounting can be had if you're cashed up. New builds in the bays have dropped from pre-covid 2.4 to 1.8 to 2.2 as developers looking to move them. Apartments seem to be going well - new build right across the road from us that we thought would struggle to sell sold penthouse for north of 3 - and it was nothing special. Older owners looking to downsize are getting frustrated as an apartment cost is now what they're selling their family home for.

    Only place that isn't selling in the bays is the one right next door to where Oceania is building their village!

  18. #2758
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/355536 - Having a real meeting after all, that's good.
    Last edited by Beagle; 30-06-2020 at 05:50 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  19. #2759
    Legend Balance's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/355536 - Having a real meeting after all, that's good.
    No catering, I see.

    Don’t want too many shareholders lingering around after the meeting to ask awkward questions one on one?

  20. #2760
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    I might have mercy on them and send them a list of my questions a few days before or more likely just turn up and start the grilling and barking. Nephew owns a restaruant just around the corner in Kingsland so I won't be going hungry afterwards

    Might be a few larger shareholders there doing serious grumbling too...could be a pretty good show as far as corporate meetings go.

    Anyone on here going to come along and watch the Beagle bare his teeth and do some barking ?

    Selfie video - I do not want to give up my $7 lol https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tuBqRHJ-mo
    Last edited by Beagle; 30-06-2020 at 06:28 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

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